Five Smart Ways to Spot March Madness Cinderellas
Cinderellas Stories Have Been the Heartbeat of a March Madness Tournament That Always Delivers
Why Elite Offense Makes Small Schools Dangerous
If you’re bummed that football is over, just remember the March Madness championship odds season will soon be upon us. Even if the best schools usually win in the Final Four, it’s the upsets from the Cinderella teams that make that tournament so special.
But you might be surprised to learn that those upsets usually have some statistical support behind them.
The Science Behind Tournament Upsets
We have identified five key traits that can help Cinderella teams March Madness their way into memorable upsets. Be sure to incorporate these trends in your college basketball betting strategies, which can help explain why those No. 12 and No. 13 seeds have the highest ROI on first-round upsets.
“The Cinderella has been the heartbeat of March Madness.“
Who will make a run this year? 👀 pic.twitter.com/6Zd44awwEI
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 10, 2020
Why Elite Offense Makes Small Schools Dangerous
“There is no defense for the perfect shot” is often heard in basketball. There’s truth to that, and there is also data that suggests great offense is more consistent and sustainable than great defense.
Since 2001, 19 teams who were a No. 9 seed or lower in the NCAA tournament advanced to the Elite Eight or better. Thirteen of those teams had a better offensive rank than a defensive rank for the season.
Six of the first eight Cinderella runs since 2001 were top 40 in offensive efficiency, including the 2001-02 Missouri Tigers, who were No. 11. More recently, the 2022-23 Florida Atlantic Owls reached the Final Four behind a great offense.
9-seed Florida Atlantic doing it for all the Cinderellas 🕺#MarchMadness @FAUMBB pic.twitter.com/SQepi6RqqO
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 26, 2023
The Sweet Science of Three-Point Shooting
Much like we’ve seen in the NBA these days, the 3-point shot makes basketball a lot more volatile. One team can cruise to victory on a night when the deep ball is clicking, and it can also spark a huge comeback in a hurry.
Teams who shoot above 37% from 3 give themselves a great shot of advancing in the tournament. The average 3P% for the 19 lower seeds to win in the Sweet Sixteen was .374.
Go figure, the best game was when Steph Curry’s Davidson team shot 12-of-24 from deep to upset Wisconsin in 2008. Curry had 33 points that day with 6-of-12 from distance.
On this day in 2008: Steph Curry dropped 40 points on Gonzaga to kick off Davidson’s memorable Elite 8 run 🔥 pic.twitter.com/eCoon6Jpi7
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 21, 2024
Defense Matters More Than You Think
We’ve stressed offense over defense, but that’s not to say defense is irrelevant. You just have to look at metrics that go beyond simple points per game allowed. Look into stats like Defensive Rating or adjusted defensive efficiency that account for pace as well as adjusting for strength of schedule.
With over 350 teams in the NCAA field, the March Madness odds should be better for teams that rank at least roughly in the top 85 (top 25% in the nation) in defensive efficiency.
A team like George Mason (2006) made its infamous run as a No. 11 seed to the Final Four behind an elite defense. More recently, the 2022-23 St. Peter’s Peacocks reached the Elite Eight behind the No. 26 defense.
THE PEACOCKS HAVE DONE IT 🤯
15-SEED SAINT PETER’S TAKES DOWN 2-SEED KENTUCKY pic.twitter.com/tqS07tJD4O
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 18, 2022
Winning the Battle of the Boards
Winning the rebounding battle is one of the key factors in successful basketball, and that includes offensive rebounds. According to past studies, teams with positive rebounding margins against Power 5 opponents win 64% of their tournament games.
Big O’s 25 boards were the most in #MarchMadness in 46 years 😳 @KentuckyMBB pic.twitter.com/S9E6sVubyB
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 19, 2023
The Power of Tournament Experience
Finally, experience does help, and the chemistry of players spending multiple seasons together can give small schools an advantage. The big schools usually get the talented recruits who are “one and done” with the NBA on their minds as soon as possible.
Inching closer to March 🤩@TheAndyKatz lists his games to watch this week as conference battles continue to rage on ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/2d6Kh9hy4j
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 10, 2025
Senior-led teams reportedly advance past the first weekend 31% more often than freshman-heavy squads.
