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March Madness Analysis: Preview at Final Four
No. 4 UConn Highest Seed, NCAA Tournament Favorite
Unlikely Path to Big Stage
After a chaotic regular season when no team remained on top of the national polls for more than four weeks in a row, with North Carolina, Houston, Purdue and Alabama all taking turns at the No. 1 spot in the rankings, it figured to be quite the NCAA Tournament. It certainly lived up to the expectations with plenty of March Madness expert picks turning out to be off the mark.
San Diego State was the only one of the four teams remaining to appear in the top 25 in the preseason Associated Press poll, with the Aztecs ranked 19th. UConn and Miami came in second and third among the others receiving votes category while Florida Atlantic wasn’t among the 44 teams receiving votes.
It was pretty much the same story in the first coaches’ poll of the season. Not only did no No. 1 seeds make it to the Final Four, but for the first time no team seeded third or higher got through to the national semifinals.
The NCAA began listing seeds in the 1979 tournament when Magic Johnson’s No. 2-seeded Michigan State team topped Larry Bird and Indiana State, a No. 1 seed in the tournament.
This is not the first time that the bracket has been blown up on the way to the Final Four.
When looking at past March Madness predictions, in 2000, No. 8 seeds Wisconsin and North Carolina and No. 5 seed Florida got to the national semifinals. However, Michigan State, a No. 1 seed, won the championship. In 2014, the title game featured a No. 7 seed (UConn) topping a No. 8 seed (Kentucky).
No. 6 North Carolina State (1983), No. 8 Villanova (1985), No. 6 Kansas (1988) and No. 7 UConn (2014) were among the teams seeded fifth or lower to win the national title. UConn was 10th, Miami 16th, San Diego State 18th and Florida Atlantic 25th in the most recent Associated Press Top 25 poll.
According to the college basketball odds, UConn (-125) has the best odds to win the national title followed by San Diego State (+350), Miami (+450) and Florida Atlantic (+600). Here is a look at what happened on the way to having none of the top three seeds in the Final Four for the first time.
SOUTH REGION: Defense Never Rests
No. 1 Alabama had no problems winning the first two games before running into the San Diego State defensive buzzsaw in the Sweet 16. No. 4 seed Virginia was unable to get past Furman in the first round.
In the bottom half of the bracket, No. 2 seed Arizona fell to No. 15 Princeton in the first round and third-seeded Baylor lost to No. 6 Creighton in the second round. That set up No. 5 San Diego State and No. 6 Creighton meeting with a spot in the Final Four on the line.
When looking at the March Madness picks, San Diego State was favored in the first two tournament games before being listed as a 6½-point underdog against Alabama and a 2½-point underdog against Creighton. All four games finished under the total.
EAST REGION: Owls Soar to First Final Four
Top-seeded Purdue lost to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the biggest shocker in the first round. FDU, the smallest Division I men’s team in the country, took out a Boilermakers team that was led by 7-foot-4 All-American Zach Edey.
That appeared to open the door for No. 2 Marquette and No. 5 Duke. However, Marquette lost to seventh-seeded Michigan State in the second round and Duke was eliminated by No. 4 Tennessee in the same round. Florida Atlantic, which came into the tournament 0-1 in its history in the men’s Division I tournament, defeated No. 4 seed Tennessee and No. 3 Kansas State to reach the Final Four for the first time.
The Owls were listed as the underdogs by the NCAA basketball odds in three of the four tournament games.
MIDWEST REGION: Hurricane Warning
Miami took care of No. 4 seed Indiana and top-seeded Houston in the top half of the bracket. In the bottom half, the favorites all took care of business to set up No. 2 seed Texas and No. 3 Xavier meeting in the regional semifinal. After Texas dispatched of Xavier, Miami took down another of the top seeds to reach the Final Four for the first time.
See you in Houston! @CanesHoops #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/USYpSw8Arh
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 27, 2023
Miami was the underdog by the sportsbook against Indiana, Houston (by 7½ points) and Texas.
WEST REGION: Dominant Huskies
This is the one bracket where the team that advanced was not a total surprise.
UConn might have started the season just outside of the top 25, but it didn’t take the Huskies long to move as high as No. 2 in the national polls before some difficulty winning on the road had the Huskies tumble a bit in the standings. No. 8 Arkansas eliminated top-seeded and defending national champion Kansas in the second round.
The Huskies had little trouble with No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s and No. 8 Arkansas. No. 3 seed Gonzaga eliminated No. 2 UCLA before being demolished by UConn 82-54 in the regional final. The game wasn’t even as close as the final margin might indicate.
The Huskies were favored in each of the four games en route to the regional title.
A LOOK AHEAD
All four teams were in the top 25 in the national polls heading into the national tournament, so this is not exactly a Final Four with teams coming out of nowhere.
There is a bit of March Madness history in one of the semifinals as Miami coach Jim Larranaga was the head coach at George Mason during one of the more improbable runs to the Final Four in 2006. The 11th-seeded Patriots took out No. 1 seed UConn in overtime in the regional final.
This could be one rather interesting Final Four. San Diego State is favored by two points against Florida Atlantic while UConn is a 5½- point favorite in Saturday’s second semifinal.
