March Madness Analysis: Why Tennessee will win

Volunteers Deal with Setback

The final eight games of the regular season were not kind to Tennessee. From Feb. 8 to 21, the Volunteers went 1-4 outright and against the spread (ATS). They got back on the right page with consecutive wins against South Carolina (85-45) and Arkansas (75-57). However, a key player sustained an injury on Feb. 28 against the Razorbacks.

Guard Zakai Zeigler, who ranks second on the team at 10.7 points per game, sustained a season-ending knee injury. This is a major blow for the Vols, who have sometimes struggled to score.

While Zeigler’s injury is a call for concern, Tennessee could still be one of the best March Madness picks to win it all.

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Defense Wins Championships

First off, the Vols’ odds to win March Madness have risen. This will yield a higher payout. Who says no to better winnings? However, Tennessee has yet to make a Final Four and has made one Sweet 16 with coach Rick Barnes. So which side do we take? Will the Volunteers fail once again, or can they take their program to greater heights?

Tennessee’s defense is the most important factor in the equation. Despite recent struggles, the defense has continued to excel. Only one of the last six opponents has reached 70 points. Look at any meaningful defensive statistic – the Vols are near the top. They rank third with 57.5 points allowed per game and first in opponent shooting percentage (36.4%) and 3-point percentage (25.5%). This is a suffocating unit that dominates at every level.

March Madness betting is one of the most difficult sports bets. That’s why looking at tournament data is vital. Over the last six tournaments, the team with the better defensive efficiency won more than 70% of Round of 64 and Round of 32 matchups. Tennessee leads the nation in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom. In addition, 11 of the last 12 national champions were ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll on Feb. 1. The Volunteers check that box as they were ranked No. 2.

Statistics show Tennessee is still one of the most efficient teams nationally. It ranks third in the NCAA’s NET Rankings and fifth overall in Kenpom ratings. The Vols are tracking for a No. 3 seed but can easily move to the two-line if they win the SEC Tournament. The sportsbook has Tennessee as the second choice to win the conference tournament (+260).

Pieces in Place to Replace Zeigler’s Scoring

Furthermore, the Volunteers returned key pieces over the last two weeks. Wing Josiah-Jordan James (10.1 points) has recorded double-digit points in three consecutive games since returning from injury on Feb. 25. Forward Julian Phillips (nine points) also returned from an injury on Feb. 28 and comes off a 10-point outing. Leading scorer Santiago Vescovi (12.7 points) has increased his production, posting 21 points in the regular-season finale.

Tennessee will miss Zeigler’s scoring. However, the rest of the rotation got healthy at the right time. James will be the X-factor of the NCAA Tournament. Many expected a big jump from the senior forward after he steadily improved last season. In the final three games of the 2021-22 season, James averaged 15.3 points. However, he has dealt with nagging injuries throughout the season. With James finally healthy, he could make the leap.

Josiah-Jordan James has returned pic.twitter.com/235SMuW9Wh

— Karthik Venkataraman (@KarthikV_) January 4, 2023

The upcoming SEC Tournament will tell us a lot about the Vols. With a good showing, Tennessee will show up in plenty of March Madness expert picks once again.