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March Madness Prediction: Why Florida (-115) Wins the National Championship

· Apr 07 - 4 minutes read

Walter Clayton is -110 to win the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player.
Florida (-115) is the betting pick to beat Houston for the national title.
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The Florida Gators have rallied to win three of their last four NCAA Tournament games and would like to try a different scenario as a slight favorite in the college basketball odds against the Houston Cougars in the championship matchup on Monday.

March Madness Prediction: Why Florida (-115) Wins the National Championship — Walter Clayton Jr. #1 of the Florida Gators | Sam Hodde/Getty Images/AFP

You have several reasons to believe the Gators (-1) should be your bet on March Madness ultimate success in the virtual pick’em contest. Florida has shown its ability to battle back from deficits and has a legitimate All-American in standout guard Walter Clayton Jr.

The Gators have gotten more production from their bench, but it will be a matchup of great offense against strong defense. Florida, which was +6000 in the NCAA basketball futures before the season, averages 85.3 points. Houston allows 58.5 per game.

Top 3 Reasons Florida Wins NCAAM Championship

1. Walter Clayton Jr. is the Man

No player has or can win the NCAA Tournament alone. But Walter Clayton Jr. has a chance to put his name next to players like Bill Walton, Magic Johnson, Danny Manning and Carmelo Anthony by being a giant on the way to an NCAA title.

Clayton is the first player to score at least 30 points in the Elite Eight and national semifinals since Larry Bird in 1979. He scored 34 as Florida turned back Auburn 79-73 on Saturday and his presence makes the Gators a good March Madness pick.

Most recent players with back-to-back 30+ point games in the Elite 8 or later:

Walter Clayton Jr.
Larry Bird (1979) pic.twitter.com/OVUUldYsWi
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) April 6, 2025

The 6-foot-3 guard, who scored 15 in his first NCAA Tournament game for Iona against eventual champ Connecticut in 2023, is 33-for-66 from the field in the 2025 Big Dance and 19-of-39 from 3-point range. Clayton has been a great player prop pick in the NCAAs and is the favorite to win Most Outstanding Player at -110 odds.

Houston will try to be physical with Clayton, but the crafty senior finds ways to get off his shots and makes 3-pointers under pressure. If he matches his last two efforts, he can stand beside Joakim Noah (2006) and Al Horford (2007), who led the Gators to their other two championships.

2. Bench Support Big For Gators

Florida coach Todd Golden uses his bench a little more than Houston’s Kelvin Sampson and it may be a key that opens a door to victory.

The Gators have gotten 79 points on 27-of-60 shooting from their bench the last four games, including just 10 versus Auburn, per NCAA betting tips. Houston’s bench has contributed 35 points on 14-of-38 in the same stretch.

Thomas Haugh has been a bg factor off the bench for Florida inside and outside, averaging 16 points the last two games and draining six 3-pointers the past three contests. Denzel Aberdeen is also capable. The 6-5 junior scored 12 versus Maryland three games back.

THOMAS HAUGH THROWS IT UP AND IN 🤯

THE GATORS CAN FEEL IT!#MarchMadness @GatorsMBK pic.twitter.com/OsTTSPulBa
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 6, 2025

Houston must avoid foul trouble. Florida may have a few more valuable options that make it a good NCAA basketball pick for Monday.

3. Florida Just Won’t Die

No doubt, Houston showed it won’t go away easily against Duke on Saturday, But Florida has played like a team of destiny the last four games.

The Gators trailed two-time defending NCAA champion UConn by six with 9 minutes left, broke open a close game to beat Maryland by 16 and rallied from nine back with under four minutes remaining to edge Texas Tech. Florida was also down eight at halftime versus Auburn.

They may have what it takes. The Gators have a star leading the way, two solid veteran supporting scorers in Alijah Martin and Will Richard, along with Haugh, to make big shots. Martin will be playing his 12th NCAA Tournament game.

If Florida can find enough good shots, it should be a solid college basketball pick to be dancing late Monday.

BET THIS PICK: Florida (-115)