NCAAB Betting: Bracketology, ATS Style

If we went solely on the ATS numbers, Northwestern State, Southern University, Florida Atlantic and Kennesaw State would be the top four seeds. However, that would not be in keeping with the spirit of putting together a field of 68.

The one-bid conferences for the 2022 NCAA men”s Division I Tournament will remain just that in this exercise. Also, any team with a losing record in conference play straight up gets passed over. That caused Penn State, which is 5-6 in the Big Ten, to be bypassed even though the Nittany Lions’ ATS number is good enough to land at a No. 5 seed.

Four of the top seven teams in the current Associated Press Top 25 poll would be among the top 16 seeds. However, some powerhouse programs would be left out thanks to less than stellar records against the Las Vegas odds.

When is comes to the current college basketball odds, Houston (+600) is the current favorite to win the national title followed by Alabama (+1000), Purdue (+1000), Kansas (+1200), Tennessee (+1200), Arizona (+1400) and UCLA (+1400).

Let’s check the latest college basketball news, stats, injury reports and college basketball lines. We’ve got plenty of NCAA basketball picks for you to consider.

Starting at the Top

Using the Power-5 conferences and including the Big East, since that conference is outperforming most of the other leagues in the country, we start the bracket with the Kansas State Wildcats. Even with its recent loss to Kansas, the Wildcats are 16-6 against the spread. That is the best mark among the six conferences and among other teams like Houston and Gonzaga worthy of consideration.

The Pittsburgh Panthers and the Marquette Golden Eagles are next, both with 16-6-1 marks against the college basketball betting lines. Marquette is coming off a win over perennial Big East contender Villanova.

No. 14 Marquette Pulls Away Late For 73-64 Win Over Villanova

Recap:⤵️https://t.co/VVmPF6UUeD#MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/khawbfzkPQ

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) February 2, 2023

Marquette gets the nod as the overall No. 2 seed based on its 3-1 record against teams in the Top 25 in the Associated Press poll. Pittsburgh is 3-2 against ranked squads and gets the third overall seed.

Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers are 15-7 against the spread. Cincinnati is 0-3 against ranked teams, Maryland has split its six games versus ranked squads while Rutgers is 2-1 in such games.

Being part of the selection committee requires more than just crunching numbers. Rutgers has something that the other teams don’t have – a win over Purdue when listed by the sportsbook as the 8½-point underdog. So congratulations to the Scarlet Knights for landing the final No. 1 seed.

Who’s Missing?

Looking at the top 16 seeds, the first thing that stands out is that Purdue is nowhere to be found.

The Boilermakers are the unanimous No. 1 team in both the Associated Press and coaches’ polls. However, the Boilermakers are just 10-11-2 against the spread.

No. 5 Arizona is just 10-12-1 ATS, No. 6 Virginia is 8-11-1, No. 8 Kansas is 9-13, No. 10 Texas is 9-13 and No. 12 Gonzaga is 7-14-1, so there is obviously a difference between on-court success and piling up impressive numbers against the college basketball odds.

• Bracket 1: Tennessee Lurking as No. 4 Seed

Kansas State would be joined by Providence, Iowa and Tennessee as the top four seeds,

That would make for some pretty intriguing regional matchup. The Volunteers will meet up with a Kansas State team led by former SEC standout Keyontae Johnson while Iowa’s Kris Murray, one of the nation’s top scorers, would be going up against a Providence team led by Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins.

• Bracket 2: Big East Well Represented

This is a dream for those who love to see teams outside of the Power-5 teams thrive.

Marquette and UConn, rivals in the Big East, would make for an intriguing regional final. First, the third-seeded Huskies would need to get by Saint Mary‘s out of the West Coast Conference.

Houston, currently third in the national polls, would be one dangerous No. 4 seed with the Cougars currently leading in the odds to win the national title.

• Bracket 3: Pitt Panthers Ready to Roar

This bracket is all about the Power-5 conferences.

Top-seeded Pittsburgh is making some noise in the ACC with recent wins over North Carolina and Miami.

Maryland and Illinois, both out of the Big Ten, are seeded second and fourth. Alabama, featuring freshman phenom Brandon Miller is the No. 3 seed. Southern California, flying under the radar in the Pac-12, and Wake Forest, which owns a win over ACC-leading Clemson, are seeded fifth and sixth, respectively.

• Bracket 4: Former Conference Rivals Reunite

It was only a decade ago when Rutgers, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall were all members of the Big East. What a basketball conference that was with five ranked teams that season. That was when Georgetown was still relevant, as was Syracuse.

Thanks to conference realignment, top-seeded Rutgers is now making waves in the Big Ten as one of the nation’s best defensive teams. No. 2 seed Cincinnati is in its final season in the American Athletic Conference before heading to the Big 12 while fourth-seeded Seton Hall is still in the Big East.

Nationally ranked TCU, soon to be Cincinnati’s Big 12 rival, is the No. 3 seed while Iowa State and Missouri are seeded fifth and sixth.

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.