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Pac-12 March Madness: Arizona Eyes Top Seed in NCAAs
It has come down to 11 games before the destruction of the Pac-12. Only Oregon State and Washington State are being left behind as the rest of the conference teams will have new leagues to play in beginning with the 2024-25 season.
Arizona and Washington State are in a position to secure bids in the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the Pac-12 tournament. After that, it is a little harder to predict when it comes to the March Madness odds.
Oregon and Colorado join the Wildcats and the Cougars as teams with winning records in Pac-12 play going into the conference tournament. Have the Ducks and Buffaloes done enough to earn at-large bids into the NCAA Tournament if they don’t win the Pac-12 tournament?
The Pac-12 tournament begins with four games on Wednesday while the teams in the conversation to be a part of the March Madness field are not set to play until Thursday’s quarterfinals.
The #Pac12MBB Tournament bracket is set 👀
Snag your tickets at https://t.co/CrTVA4AFLD pic.twitter.com/6wgeHrUFHO
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) March 10, 2024
This is the final season of the Pac-12 as a Power-5 conference. Next season, Cal and Stanford are headed to the ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah will join the Big 12 while Oregon, Southern California, UCLA and Washington leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. That leaves Oregon State and Washington State as the two teams without a seat in the conference realignment table.
When looking at the college basketball futures odds, Arizona is tied for fourth with +1200 odds of winning the national championship. Washington State is priced at +8000 while Utah, Colorado, and Oregon have +15000 odds to win March Madness.
Here’s a look at the NCAA Tournament hopes for the Pac-12 teams.
Big Dance-Bound: Arizona, Washington State Setting the Pace
Arizona is still fighting for a No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket, but there isn’t much margin for error with the Wildcats falling to fourth in the NCAA NET rankings. A loss in the Pac-12 tournament would likely knock Arizona off the No. 1 line.
The Wildcats are 8-3 in Quad 1 games. However, three Quad 2 losses and a Quad 3 loss could prove costly when the NCAA Tournament selection committee looks at the Wildcats’ body of work. At -160 in the odds of winning the Pac-12 title, it might be hard to stop the Wildcats this week.
Washington State is 45th in the NCAA NET rankings. The Cougars have two wins over Arizona, but it is hard to find much else on the resume for the Cougars that is going to wow those responsible for the March Madness seeding. It remains to be seen how that will impact the tournament seed for the Cougars.
On the Bubble
Colorado is ahead of Washington State in the NCAA NET rankings with the Buffaloes taking a six-game winning streak into the Pac-12 tournament.
Colorado was blown out twice by Arizona, and a non-conference win over Miami in the NABC Brooklyn Showcase doesn’t look as good as it did at the time.
The Buffaloes are 51st in RPI and 69th in strength of schedule. Losing to Arizona by 47 and 20 points won’t aid the Buffaloes’ cause. Colorado is among the last four teams when looking at some projected brackets.
Utah is just outside the top 50 in the NCAA NET rankings. The Utes are only 4-8 in Quad 1 games. A 9-11 record in Pac-12 play is another concerning number for the Utes, and the NCAA Basketball odds for Utah earning an at-large bid are not promising without a strong showing in the Pac-12 tournament.
Oregon is 20-11 and 12-8 in the Pac-12. However, a 2-6 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-4 mark in Quad 2 games has the Ducks just 68th in the NCAA NET rankings.
Wait ‘Til Next Year
Washington might be 67th in the NCAA NET rankings, but the Huskies are 9-11 in conference play and have a 17-14 overall record.
No. 91 Southern California (2-8 in Quad 1 games), and No. 115 UCLA (1-9 in Quad 1 games) have failed to live up to preseason expectations. Both teams will likely need to win the Pac-12 tournament to secure a spot in the March Madness bracket.
No. 114 Stanford, No. 123 California, No. 125 Arizona State and No. 161 Oregon State will need to make a run in the conference tournament for them to take spots away from bubble teams by earning the Pac-12’s automatic bid.
Questions of the Day
Which Pac-12 team has the best record against the spread this season?
Arizona is 20-11 against the Las Vegas odds. No other Pac-12 team is more than three games over .500 against the spread this season.
Who has the best odds of winning March Madness among Pac-12 teams?
Arizona was tied for second with +1000 championship odds when the season began and those odds have moved to +1200. That is still the best mark among Pac-12 teams.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.
