Bet On Dayton To Fly Past Saint Louis

Dayton vs Saint Louis Game Information

1. Game: Dayton (22-6, 12-4 A-10) vs Saint Louis (8-8, 18-11)
2. Location: Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, Mo.
3. Date/Time: March 5, 9 p.m. ET
4. Dayton vs Saint Louis Live Stream: TBS.com

When the teams met in January, Saint Louis hung tough on the road, losing by just five, handily covering the college basketball spread. They now host a Dayton team that is in a bit of a skid, losing three of its last six. Despite this, the Flyers are still a heavy favorite.

Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds and Spreads

Dayton vs Saint Louis Betting Trends

1. The Flyers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.
2. The Billikens are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
3. The Billikens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
4. The under is 5-0 in the Billikens’ last five games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.
5. The over is 4-0-1 in the Flyers’ last five overall.
6. The over is 3-0-1 in the Flyers’ last four games following an ATS loss.

Dayton vs Saint Louis O/U Pick: Over 152

Dayton makes its money on offense through efficiency, attempting just fewer than 53 field goals per game, second-lowest in the nation. But it makes those shots count, knocking down 47.7 percent of them from the field and 39.5 percent from 3-point range, the latter being seventh-best in the nation. During the last six games, the Flyers have characteristically shot the ball well, for the most part, but some of the losses could be attributed to the slow pace, getting off less than 50 field goals in the losses against Loyola Chicago and VCU. Dayton’s inherent tendency to not take a lot of shots leaves doubt whether the game will reach the college basketball over/under of 152 points.

But what keeps that hope alive is that Saint Louis’ defense is downright bad, allowing nearly 80 points per contest, among the 20 worst in the nation. The Billikens have been particularly poor of late, with their last four opponents shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent, collectively, from 3. This falls right into the hands of Dayton’s philosophy of high-percentage shots and 3s. While it might be close, we believe this is the perfect combination for the score to eclipse 152 points.

Dayton vs Saint Louis ATS Pick: Dayton -9

Dayton’s offense runs through forward DaRon Holmes II, who has continued to progress in his third year as a Flyer, averaging 19.96 points on 55-percent shooting. The Flyers’ strong 3-point percentage comes from Nate Santos and Kobe Brea. Brea leads the country, making an outstanding 48.8 percent of his 3s.

For the Billikens, guard Sincere Parker has come back down to earth the last two games after three straight scoring 30 or more. He averages 15 points along with fellow guard Gibson Jimerson, who had a 30-point game of his own in the impressive win against Rhode Island. But the junior has nearly as many turnovers as he does assists.

We think this game poses a perfect opportunity for Dayton to get right following the Loyola loss. They may need to pick up the pace on offense, but Saint Louis’ porous defense opens the door for an offensive breakout. Despite only handling the Billikens by five in the first meeting, we believe the Flyers will get back in the win column and do so by covering the 9-point college basketball spread.

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Dayton vs Saint Louis Prediction

Dayton 85, Saint Louis 73

Questions Of The Day

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.