Dayton Strong ATS, Moneyline Bet vs St. Joe’s

Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Game Information

1. Game: Dayton (18-3, 8-1) vs. Saint Joseph’s (15-7, 5-4)
2. Date/Time: Feb. 6, 8:00 p.m. ET
3. Location: Michael J. Hagan ‘85 Arena
4. Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Live Stream: TBS.com

Dayton enters this game as one of the best moneyline teams in the country as a favorite, hitting in 15 of 16 games the Flyers have played when projected to win. It’s a tough road game on Tuesday against Saint Joseph’s, which has been strong at home at 8-5 ATS, but the Hawks hold just a 2-3 record when an underdog in college basketball lines.

We broke this matchup down more and evaluated why the under looks like a strong play and detailed our pick on Dayton -2.

Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s Odds and Spread

Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Betting Trends

1. Dayton is 9-1 in its last 10 games on the straight up
2. Dayton is 15-1 hitting the moneyline as a favorite this season
3. Saint Joseph’s is 2-3 ATS in its last five games
4. The over is 4-1 in Saint Joseph’s last five games
5. The over is 3-2 in Dayton’s last five games
6. Dayton is 5-2-1 ATS on the road this season
7. The over is 3-5 in Dayton’s road games this year
8. The over is 5-8 in Saint Joseph’s home games this year

Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Over/Under Pick: Under 142½

Dayton has found itself playing in lower-scoring games on the road this season, clearing the over in just three of its eight games away from home. Interestingly, the same stands true for Saint Joseph’s when playing at home, hitting the over in 5 of 13 games in front of its own fans.

The Flyers haven’t gone over or even come all that close to clearing 142½ in a single true road game this season. They’ve largely held opponents in check away from home and most recently held Richmond, which is tied with Dayton atop the A-10, to just 69 points in an eventual loss. I like this game to be lower scoring than projected and am targeting the under.

Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s ATS Pick: Dayton -2

Dayton has simply been rolling this season and specifically has done just fine in games away from home. Including in-season tournament games, the Flyers are 5-2-1 ATS on the road. But for good measure, Saint Joseph’s is 8-5 ATS at home, but have failed to cover in its last two games at home (both two-point victories).

While Saint Joseph’s is a strong home team, Dayton is ranked among the Top 25 in the nation for a reason and has played like it. The Flyers’ three losses have come against teams with a combined 50-16 record and each of their 18 wins have come by two or more points, with just one landing exactly as a two-point victory.

I’m taking the Flyers here, even with this being in the midst of a tough stretch. While it’s not as if they have an NCAA game tomorrow, Dayton does follow this up with another road game against VCU on Friday, so I think the train keeps rolling this week for them.

Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Moneyline Pick: Dayton -130

If you sweat the small spreads and try to avoid potential pushes or just like the safety blanket of betting a favorite straight-up, taking Dayton with moneyline odds of -130 is a decent target here. It’s a small hit to the odds but the Flyers have thrived on the moneyline this season, making it an even stronger play.

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Dayton vs Saint Joseph’s Prediction

Dayton Flyers 73 Saint Joseph’s Hawks 65

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