Fade Mississippi State vs Murray State

· Dec 13 - 3 minutes read

Mississippi State will look to build on success when it takes on Murray State on Wednesday night. After a pair of losses, the Bulldogs are on the heels of a 40-point victory over Tulane and are poised to start a winning streak as the college basketball odds has them as double-digit favorites. But will the Bulldogs cover this 16½-point college basketball spread?

Mississippi State Trucks On Without Smith

After failing to reach 60 points in upset losses to Georgia Tech and Southern, the Bulldogs exploded for 106 points in their win against Tulane. They are off to a 7-2 start despite the absence of senior big man Tolu Smith III, preseason SEC Player of the Year and member of the Naismith Watch List. Smith sustained a foot injury in the preseason and while he is progressing, he is not expected to play against the Racers.

But the Bulldogs have picked up the slack. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard, despite standing at just 5-foot-10, leads the team with over 16 points per game while coming off the bench. Junior forward Jimmy Bell Jr. is a double-double threat, averaging over nine points and rebounds. He’s eclipsed 10 rebounds in five games and his 9.7 average is tops in the SEC.

Murray State Led by Experience

The Racers were predicted to finish middle-of-the-pack in a competitive Missouri Valley Conference. They have four players averaging double-figures, led by senior guard Rob Perry with an even 15 points per contest. But it is junior point guard JaCobi Wood that has been the Racers’ all around best performer. In addition to averaging over 13 points, he shoots 45% from three and has a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Junior forward Nick Ellington also chips in 11 points and over eight rebounds per contest.

Mississippi State’s Lack of Offense Will Lead to Murray State Cover

Despite Murray State being a disciplined team, turning the ball over less than 10 times per contest, the Racers will likely not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs are best in the SEC and 18th-best in the country, allotting opponents 62 points per game.

And the Racers’ most recent contest came against a top-40 defense in Austin Peay, who silenced them to 49 points.

While that is something to consider when betting the over/under, the key to Mississippi State covering the college basketball spread will be if it can produce enough offensively. The Bulldogs shoot just 31% from three and over a quarter of their attempts come from Hubbard, though he does knock them down at a 41% clip. The overall lack of offensive firepower leads us to believe that Mississippi State will win a low-scoring affair, doing so within the confines set by the college basketball betting odds.

CBB Pick: Murray State +16 1/2