Illinois at Michigan State Game Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions
Another Road Test for Fighting Illini
No. 19 Michigan State has very quietly won 10 of 12 games at home and will look to use that home-court advantage to pick up their third win of the season against a team ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 poll.
No. 12 Illinois is just 5-4 on the road. Among the Big Ten contenders, no team has had more contests against ranked teams than the Fighting Illini

Illinois (+3000) and Michigan State (+6000) are among the Big Ten teams with the best odds to win the national championship according to the March Madness predictions.
Illinois at Michigan State Game Information
- Game: Illinois (18-7) at Michigan State (18-7)
- Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan
- Day/Time: Saturday, Noon ET
- Television: ESPN
Illinois Star Center Cockburn Overcomes Obstacles
This hasn’t been the easiest of seasons for Kofi Cockburn.
First, the Illinois’ 7-foot junior’s process of applying for the 2021 NBA Draft was red-flagged by the NCAA even after Cockburn opted to return to play for the Fighting Illini.
While Cockburn’s eligibility was being sorted out, he missed the first three games of the season. He was out of action for almost two weeks in late January as he waited to clear concussion protocol, with Illinois being upset by Maryland and barely eeking out a one-point win over Michigan State. The Fighting Illini also lost to Marquette earlier in the season before the NCAA cleared Cockburn to return to the court.
According to the March Madness odds, only 10 teams rank ahead of Illinois (+900) in the odds to reach the Final Four and Cockburn’s presence has a lot to do with that.
Illinois is 15-5 with Cockburn on the court. The good news is that Illinois is only a half-game behind Purdue in the race to the Big Ten regular-season title, which the Fighting Illini haven’t won since the 2004-05 season.
That is not the only hardware that Cockburn is chasing. He is on the short list of top candidates for the national player of the year. Cockburn and Oakland’s Jamal Cain are the only Division I men’s players to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. He had nine straight double-doubles at one point. Cockburn is in the top 10 nationally in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and double-doubles.
He set the Illinois career record with his 42st double-double.
Kofi Cockburn is now the #Illini program’s all-time leader in double-doubles. He now has 42, passing Skip Thoren’s 41.
— The Schmack Guy (@Ant_Pasquale3) February 17, 2022
Illinois is just 2-7 against the college basketball spreads in its last nine games.
Michigan State Still in Contention
A quick look at Michigan State’s offensive numbers leads to the question of just how the Spartans are ranked 19th in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll and only two games behind first-place Purdue in the Big Ten standings.
The Spartans are fifth in field goal percentage, sixth in points per game and scoring margin, fourth in rebounding margin, 11th in assist/turnover ratio and 13th (of 14 teams) in turnover margin.
In a conference full of national player of the year candidates, Michigan State doesn’t have a player among the top 25 scorers in the Big Ten. Yet, the Spartans are very much alive in the championship race.
Michigan State figures to be featured in the March Madness bracket as the Spartans have +1800 odds to reach the Final Four.
It certainly helps that the Spartans lead the conference by making 76.6 percent of their foul shots, but it is the defense that has kept Michigan State in games and in contention for the regular-season conference title. Michigan State is second in the conference in field goal percentage defense and first in 3-point percentage defense.
Michigan State has a 12-point win over Wisconsin and handled Michigan by 16 points, but the Spartans also got blown out by unranked Rutgers and lost to Penn State the last time out.
Michigan State has covered against the Las Vegas odds in just one of its last five games.
Illinois at Michigan State Head-to-Head
It wasn’t pretty, but Illinois’ 56-55 win over Michigan State on Jan. 25, when the Fighting Illini were two-point favorites at home, did snap a three-game losing streak to the Spartans.
Something to consider for those who bet online, each of the last three games in the series has been decided by single digits, including a pair of one-point affairs. Three of the last four games between the Spartans and Fighting Illini went under the total while the Spartans are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
The home team has won five of the last six matchups while Illinois is looking to sweep the regular-season series for the first time since the 2005-06 campaign.
Illinois at Michigan State Prediction
Michigan State is first in the Big Ten in 3-point field-goal percentage offense while Illinois leads the conference in 3-point attempts, so don’t be surprised to see plenty of shots from the perimeter.
Michigan State ranks near the bottom of the conference in field goals attempted per game. If the Spartans can control the pace, that will give them a chance. Trying to figure out some of these results in the topsy-turvy Big Ten has been an impossible challenge, but it certainly looks like Illinois, despite a mediocre road record, could return home with a key win.
With the last meeting finishing 56-55, it will be hard to expect this game to top the 141-point total.
Pick: Under 139
Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5)