Liberty vs Oregon Odds, First Round Prediction and March Madness Picks on March 21

The final game of the Round of 64 features the No. 12 Liberty Flames (28-6) against the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (24-9) in a West Region showdown on Friday night. The Ducks are favored in college basketball betting odds, but Liberty is an elite shooting team capable of pulling off an upset.

Even when they pick Oregon, it isn’t confident. Liberty looking like they have a real shot at upsetting the Ducks. FAN THE FLAMES!!!

Source: @CBSSportsHQ pic.twitter.com/5sMSWILGEK

— PHIL (@RealPhierce) March 18, 2025

Let’s dive into the matchup, including key trends and our best bet on March Madness for this late-night thriller.

Liberty vs Oregon Prediction Today March 21

My prediction

Liberty is among the best shooting teams in the NCAA Tournament, ranking second in effective field goal percentage (58.2%) and fifth in 3-point shooting (39.5%). If the Flames get hot, they can absolutely keep this game close. Despite this, Liberty isn’t worth the risk of betting on their odds for an NCAA basketball championship. 

Oregon, meanwhile, has an athletic size advantage, led by 7-footer Nate Bittle (14.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG). However, the Ducks are just 15-17 ATS this season and have struggled as a favorite (6-7 ATS when laying 6.5 or more points), per NCAAB betting trends.

Liberty’s defense is in the top 10 nationally in effective FG% (45.9%), meaning the Flames contest shots well and force tough possessions. Both teams prefer slower tempos, which should lead to a lower-scoring game.

Top 3 Liberty vs Oregon Betting Picks

My top picks

1. Liberty vs Oregon ATS Pick: Oregon +7 points
2. Liberty vs Oregon O/U Pick: Over 139 points
3. Liberty vs Oregon Best point-scorer Bet: Kaden Metheny Over 12.5 Points (+102)

My Analysis

Liberty has covered in five straight games as an underdog and ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive effective FG%, making them a strong play at +7. Despite their slower tempo, the Flames are one of the best 3-point shooting teams (39.5%) while Oregon averages 76.2 PPG, giving value to the Over 139. 

Liberty’s Kaden Metheny has been red-hot, scoring 13+ in four straight games, and with his ability to knock down threes, he should clear this number again. As far as college basketball games go, this one should be a doozy. 

Liberty vs Oregon March Madness Best Prop Bet

Keeshawn Barthelemy Over 2.5 Rebounds

According to the college basketball news and stats, Liberty ranks 298th in the country in rebounding percentage, making this a great spot for Keeshawn Barthelemy to clear at least three boards. The Oregon guard averages 2.4 rebounds per game, and against a smaller Liberty squad that struggles on the glass, he should have extra opportunities.

With the Ducks’ size advantage inside forcing Liberty to take more outside shots, expect longer rebounds, giving Barthelemy a solid chance to cash this college basketball player prop bet.

Liberty vs Oregon How to Watch

• Game: Liberty (28-6) vs Oregon (24-9)
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date/Time: Friday, March 21, 10:10 p.m. ET
• Liberty vs Oregon Live Stream: Fubo.tv

Get the latest Liberty vs Oregon betting stats here.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets