Indiana to Cover Spread vs Purdue

· Jan 16 - 4 minutes read

Things didn’t go so well the last time Purdue hit the road as the Boilermakers lost at Nebraska by 16 points to fall out of the top spot in the national rankings. Indiana is a much different team playing at home than they are on the road. The college basketball lines list visiting Purdue as a heavy favorite, though.

Indiana swept the 2022-23 season series from Purdue with both games finishing over the total. The Hoosiers have won three of the last four games versus the Boilermakers after Purdue won the previous nine matchups.

Look for Purdue to Snap Losing Streak vs Indiana but for Hoosiers to Cover

IU coach Mike Woodson has had Purdue’s number, but he knows these Boilermakers are better than ever. And it’s not just a Zach Edey thing.https://t.co/YhdA52gtNP

— Gregg Doyel (@GreggDoyelStar) January 16, 2024

When looking at the college basketball spreads, Purdue is favored by 9½ points.

Guard Anthony Leal and forward Payton Sparks are questionable for Indiana while guards Shaan Burke, Jordan Rayford, and Jakai Newton are out for Indiana. Leal and Sparks missed the last game for the Hoosiers.

Purdue is in pretty good shape health-wise as eight of the top 10 scorers have appeared in every game this season.

Purdue vs Indiana Game Information

Game: Purdue 15-2 (4-2 Big Ten) vs Indiana 12-5 (4-2)
Date/Time: Jan. 16, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.
Purdue vs Indiana Live Stream: TBS.com

Indiana is 9-1 at home, but 6-4 against the spread, while Purdue has covered in one of the three road games.

Indiana has covered in its last two games as the underdog at home. Purdue is 2-7-1 against the spread over the last two seasons when listed by the BetUS sportsbook as the road favorite.

The Boilermakers are priced at -500 to win the game with Indiana at +385 on the moneyline. Read on for our NCAA basketball predictions.

Purdue vs Indiana Odds and Spreads

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Purdue vs Indiana Betting Trends

Indiana covered against the Las Vegas NCAAB odds in four of the last five meetings with Purdue.
Four of Indiana’s first 10 games this season landed over the total.
The total has gone over in 10 of Purdue’s last 13 games.
Purdue is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
Indiana has covered in eight of its last 12 games.
The Boilermakers have covered in only one of their last five games.
Four of Indiana’s last six games against Big Ten teams landed under the total.

ATS Pick: Indiana +9½

Indiana’s top scorer Malik Reneau’s average jumps from 13.5 points per game on the road to 17.2 at home while Trey Galloway and Mackenzie Mgbako are also more productive playing at Assembly Hall. That could be enough for the Hoosiers to pick around against a Purdue team that has mixed results over the last couple years when playing on the road.

We’re not calling for Indiana to pull the upset, just to keep the final margin in single digits.

Over/Under Pick: Under 151

Purdue has the second-best offensive efficiency in the country according to the Pomperoy database. However, the Boilermakers are also in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency.

Indiana is just 117th in offensive efficiency and 71st in defensive efficiency.

It is also worth keeping in mind that four of the last five games between the Boilermakers and the Hoosiers didn’t crack 150 combined points.

Player Prop Pick: Purdue’s Zach Edey to Go Over 21.5 Points (-118)

The last two times he faced Indiana, Purdue big man Zach Edey had 26 and 33 points. Edey is coming off his third 30-point game of the season and without Trayce Jackson-Davis around to push Edey away from the basket, the National Player of the Year front-runner could have a big game against an Indiana team with mostly untested post players.