Michigan State vs Illinois Predictions and Picks: Take Illini (-6) To Cover At Home On February 15

Saturday night’s Big Ten clash between the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and the Illinois Fighting Illini is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal games of the Big Ten season. Let’s take a closer look at the game and give you some college basketball bets to make on the contest.

The Spartans are desperate to get back on track after losing three of their last four games, including an upset at home to Indiana as double-digit favorites. At 19-5 overall and 10-3 in Big Ten play, Michigan State now finds itself behind both Michigan and Purdue in the conference standings.

Illinois, on the other hand, is surging. The Fighting Illini have won three of their last four games, including an impressive win against a red-hot UCLA team earlier this week. Now at 17-8 overall and 9-6 in Big Ten play, Illinois is looking to strengthen its case for a tournament berth while keeping hopes alive for a top-four seed in the Big Ten tourney.

The current odds to win March Madness have these conference rivals very close, with Michigan State listed at +4000 and Illinois at +5000.

The Illini will be motivated to avenge their two-point road loss to Michigan State in January, a game where star freshman Kasparas Jakucionis fouled out after just eight minutes of playing time.

With both teams trending in opposite directions, let’s break down the best NCAAB predictions for this highly anticipated matchup.

Michigan State vs Illinois How To Watch

• Game: Michigan State (19-5, 10-3 Big Ten) vs Illinois (17-8, 9-6)
• Date/Time: Saturday, Feb. 15, 8:00 p.m. ET
• Location: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
• Michigan State vs Illinois Live Stream: Fubo.Tv

2 Michigan State vs Illinois Bets You Should Consider

1. Illinois ATS -6.5

Illinois should cover the spread in this revenge spot, especially at home, where the Illini have been much stronger this season. The Illini are the Big Ten’s top defensive rebounding team, which will help neutralize Michigan State’s biggest strength: offensive rebounding.

Illinois is also one of the best teams in the country at defending two-point shots, allowing just 42.2% inside the arc (fifth-best nationally). This will be critical against a Michigan State offense that lives in the paint and struggles mightily from 3-point range, shooting just 28% from deep (353rd nationally).

The Illini offense, meanwhile, is far more versatile. With Jakucionis firing on all cylinders, Illinois can exploit Michigan State’s defense, which has been inconsistent at defending the rim.

Kasparas Jakucionis vs UCLA last night..

24 PTS (8-14 FG, 3-8 3PT)
8 REBS
4 AST

How we feeling about his draft stock rn?? pic.twitter.com/qXlptr8nu1

— Frankie Vision (@Frankie_Vision) February 12, 2025

Jakucionis, along with center Tomislav Ivisic and forward Morez Johnson Jr., thrives in pick-and-roll action, which is an area where Michigan State’s defense has struggled all year. Combine that with Illinois’ home-court advantage at the always-raucous State Farm Center, and the Illini look poised to cover the six-point college basketball odds comfortably.

Bet on Illinois ATS -6 vs Michigan State

2. Bet Michigan State vs Illinois Under 158.5

This total feels slightly inflated for a matchup between two teams that don’t excel offensively and are built on grinding out games. Both teams have issues from beyond the arc, ranking near the bottom of the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Per Michigan State vs Illinois stats, the Illiini sit at 31% (288th nationally), while the Spartans are even worse at 28% (353rd).

Additionally, Illinois is one of the best teams in the Big Ten at slowing down transition opportunities, forcing teams to operate in the half-court, where points are much harder to come by. Expect Illinois to dictate the tempo and make this a physical, grind-it-out type of game.

The Illini’s elite interior defense and rebounding will further limit Michigan State’s offensive output, while the Spartans’ fundamental defensive discipline will keep Illinois from running up the score.

This game has all the ingredients to hit the under, making it a worthy addition to our NCAAB predictions for Saturday.

Bet on Michigan State vs Illinois Under 158.5

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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