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March Madness Bubble Watch in Full Swing

Conference-by-Conference Look at Teams Jockeying for NCAA Tournament Bids

The men’s college basketball regular season is winding down, which means the talk of bubble teams, the last four teams in and the first teams out will be filling the airwaves and appearing in March Madness prediction stories.

What better time for BetUS to join in the fun.

NCAA betting: Bubble watch kicks into high gear
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We’re taking a conference-by-conference look at where the teams stand since it won’t be long before February is in our rear-view mirror and March Madness is upon us.

We’re breaking down the conferences which have at least two teams among the top 40 in the NET rankings since there will be 32 teams receiving automatic bids leaving 36 at-large bids available.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Duke Blue Devils (+1400) are tied for the sixth-best odds to win the national championship. No matter what happens between now and Selection Sunday on March 13, Duke will be in the tournament. The Blue Devils were listed as the lowest of the No. 2 seeds when the NCAA selection committee gave an early peek into what the top 16 seeds would look like if the field were announced in mid-February.

Duke is 12th in the NCAA NET rankings, which is a formula used to determine the most worthy teams. That number could drop because the ACC is hardly having a season to remember, meaning no other conference team is guaranteed a spot in the tournament field.

Wake Forest is the next ACC team in the NET rankings, coming in at No. 40 and followed by No. 41 Virginia Tech, No. 42 North Carolina, No 58 Notre Dame and No. 60 Miami. Those who bet online know how combustible and unpredictable things have been in the ACC this season, so will the ACC tournament be any different?

The NET rankings are just one of the tools available to the NCAA selection committee, but it does provide a glimpse at the resumes of the teams fighting it out for the at-large bids.

North Carolina and Virginia have March Madness odds of +10000, second only to Duke among ACC teams. That feels like reputation rather than results have played a role in the standing of the Tar Heels and Cavaliers.

The first day or two of the ACC tournament could be huge as a first-round exit by a team other than Duke could leave a perennial tournament team without an invitation to March Madness.

Big East

Villanova dropped a spot to No. 8 in the NET rankings after its loss to UConn, but the Wildcats can start making plans for next month regardless of what transpires during the rest of the regular season.

Proving that number-crunching can create intriguing results, Xavier went into Wednesday tied for sixth place in the Big East standings, but the Musketeers are two spots ahead of Big East co-leader Providence in the NET rankings with Xavier coming in at No. 25 and Providence is 27th.

UConn, on the strength of a 7-1 record against Quad 2 teams, is at No. 16 in the NET rankings which is second only to Villanova among Big East teams.

No. 32 Marquette and No. 36 Seton Hall are among those teams on the bubble so finishing the regular season strong and having some success in the conference tournament could be huge.

Creighton is fourth in the Big East but a 7-7 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams is not helping the Bluejays, who are currently sit 64th in the NET rankings.

Big Ten

With No. 10 Purdue, No. 14 Illinois, No. 18 Iowa, No. 19 Ohio State and No. 20 Wisconsin all in the top 20 in the NET rankings, the Big Ten will be well represented in the March Madness bracket.

The Las Vegas odds have Purdue (+800) with the fourth-best odds to win the national championship.

One Big Ten team that is trending in the wrong direction is Michigan State, which is listed among the Top 25 teams with the best odds to win the national title, but the Spartans’ Net ranking dropped six spots to No. 35. An underachieving Michigan team is 33rd in the NET rankings and will finish out the regular season without the services of head coach Juwan Howard, who was suspended for the final five games of the regular season due to his actions after a recent loss to Wisconsin.

The Wolverines are just 6-10 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. Indiana is also very much in bubble territory.

Big 12

Talk about your top-heavy conferences. Kansas and Baylor are tied for the most Quad 1 wins (10) in the country while the Big 12 and SEC are tied for the most teams in the top 10 in the NET rankings.

Big 12 leading Kansas is No. 5 in the NET rankings followed by defending national champion Baylor at No. 6 and Texas Tech is seventh. Texas comes in at No. 15 in the NET rankings.

After that it gets interesting. Iowa State is 34th in the NET rankings but eighth in the Big 12 standings. The Cyclones’ 5-9 conference record will certainly be red-flagged by the NCAA selection committee. The 8-7 record against Quad 1 teams is commendable but just one Quad 2 game (and win) is concerning. With only four teams having winning records in Big 12 play, it will be interesting to see if that is all the representation that the conference gets when the March Madness bracket is put together.

Oklahoma, Texas Christian and Oklahoma State are 50th, 52nd and 54th in the NET rankings so barring a surprising run to the Big 12 tournament title, the Sooners, Horned Frogs and Cowboys will have to hope the committee uses other criteria when it comes to filling out the tournament field.

Mountain West

This could be fun as Boise State, San Diego State and Colorado State rank 29th, 30th, and 31st in the NET rankings while Wyoming comes in at No. 39. It will be interesting to see how the selection committee deals with a conference that isn’t typically mentioned among the nation’s elite. It should be noted that Boise State’s 15 games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams are as many as Kentucky and Purdue and more than UCLA and Duke.

It would seem as if No. 61 Utah State and No. 65 Fresno State may need to secure the automatic bid by winning the conference team and if that happens, you will be hearing groans in Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC country.

Pac-12

The lack of quality teams in the Pac-12 will hurt the conference’s teams.

Arizona, No. 2 in the Net ranking and with the third-best college basketball odds to win the national championship, could very well earn a No. 1 seed. UCLA is also pretty secure as a tournament while Southern California is pretty close to being a lock to get in as well. It is eye-opening that Arizona (seven), UCLA (six) and USC (four) have significantly fewer Quad 1 games than the top teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

Three teams might be all that the Pac-12 gets.

No. 47 Washington State is the next Pac-12 team in the NET rankings while Oregon comes in at No. 66. The Ducks have a 10-6 record in the Pac-12 but a 3-3 mark against Quad 3 teams could be a deal-breaker.

Southeastern Conference

Kentucky is third in the NET rankings and was the sixth overall seed in the recent Top 16 reveal by the NCAA selection committee, so a No. 1 seed could still be in reach for the Wildcats as well as Auburn, which leads Kentucky by a game in the SEC standings.

Tennessee jumped Auburn in the NET rankings with the Volunteers ranked ninth and the Tigers 10th. That is a little surprising because Auburn is 7-3 against Quad 1 teams compared to a 5-7 mark for Tennessee, but both teams will be featured prominently in the March Madness bracket.

Despite a 2-6 road record, LSU is sitting in the top 20 in the NET rankings while No. 22 Alabama and No. 23 Arkansas also figure to be part of the NCAA field, although a win or two in the SEC tournament wouldn’t hurt.

Mississippi State, South Carolina and Florida are either 7-7 or 7-8 in SEC play, but the other numbers currently have them on the outside looking in when it comes to possible at-large bids.

West Coast Conference

Despite the dominance of Gonzaga, the No. 1 team in the NET rankings, in the Associated Press poll and in the announcement of the current Top 16 seeds earlier this month, there is more to the WCC than just the Bulldogs.

Saint Mary’s and San Francisco are 21st and 27th in the NET rankings so both could land at-large bids even if Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament, as expected.

Unless there is some chaos in the WCC tournament, that could be it for this conference as the next-highest team in the NET rankings is No. 72 Santa Clara.

Bubble-Bursters

Nothing can wreak havoc with a projected bracket than powerhouse programs in the non Power-5 conferences stumbling in the conference tournament.

It is safe to say that Ohio Valley Conference power Murray State is receiving plenty of support from teams in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC. If Murray State, No. 26 in the NET rankings, loses in the conference tournament, the Racers should still get into the tournament field. A loss by Murray State would take away one of the at-large bids.

The same can be said for Houston out of the American Athletic Conference.  Houston is a lock to be in the tournament field while Memphis and Southern Methodist, No. 44 and 45 in the NET rankings, will certainly be in the conversation to receive at-large bids. If Memphis or SMU happens to win the AAC tournament, that wouldn’t be too tough for other bubble teams to deal with. However, if it happens to be another team other than the top three in the AAC, that will make the bubble teams across the country just a tad bit more nervous.

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