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NCAAB Predictions: Texas Longhorns

Chris Beard’s first season at Texas did not go as planned.

One of the top teams in the national polls at the beginning of the season, the Longhorns finished fourth in the Big 12 standings. They went 1-2 in the postseason with a loss to TCU in the Big 12 tournament followed by a win over Virginia Tech in the NCAA Tournament opener. The season ended with a second-round loss to Purdue.

Christian Bishop #32 of the Texas Longhorns reacts after dunking the ball during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers
Patrick McDermott - Getty Images - AFP

Texas posted its first 20-win season since the 2018-19 campaign, but the expectations were much higher among those who bet online coming into the 2021-22 season.

The Longhorns bring back their top two scorers in Timmy Allen and Marcus Carr along with Dylan Disu, Christian Bishop and Brock Cunningham.

Four players did transfer elsewhere, with Courtney Ramey now at Arizona, Devin Askew at California, Tre Mitchell moving onto West Virginia and Jaylon Tyson staying in the Big 12 to play for Texas Tech.

Former Iowa State guard Tyrese Hunter and New Mexico State guard Sir’Jabari Rice add depth and scoring potential in the backcourt.

When looking at the college basketball playoff odds, Texas (+2200) is tied for ninth in the odds to win the national title.

Texas came in at No. 12 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll. Baylor and Kansas, which tied for fifth, are the only Big 12 teams to be ranked higher than the Longhorns. Texas is also 12th in the preseason coaches’ poll.

Texas was picked to finish third in the preseason Big 12 poll.

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Texas Longhorns

  • 2021-22 record: 22-12
  • 2021-22 Big 12 Record: 10-8
  • Coach: Chris Beard
  • Odds to win national title: +2200

Texas finished in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense and in the top 25 in turnover margin as defense was the calling card for the Longhorns.

The offense will need to be better for Texas to make runs at the Big 12 and national titles.

Allen had 24 points in a win over eventual national champion Kansas while Carr ended the season by scoring 23 points in the tournament loss to Purdue. They give the Longhorns two proven scorers.

Hunter had 23 points and nine assists in two games against Texas last season, so the Longhorns have a pretty good idea of what he is capable of. One of his three 20-point games was against LSU in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 11 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists as a sophomore at Iowa State. According to the 247sports.com database, he was the No. 2-rated incoming transfer in the country.

Rice was a double-digit scorer in each of his final three seasons at New Mexico State. He averaged 16 points in the two games in the WAC tournament. New Mexico State was 19-3 a season ago when he scored at least 10 points.

Texas had a top-10 recruiting class, with forward Dillon Mitchell and guard Arterio Morris rated as top-25 recruits.

Texas Outlook

The 2021-22 season had its ups and down. A highlight was a win over Kansas. However, the Longhorns struggled against ranked teams both early and late in the season. Having Tre Mitchell and Jaylon Tyson leave the team during the season didn’t help.

There were some key departures but a strong recruiting class, a couple of impact transfers and the return of five players who averaged more than 10 minutes per game give Beard some talent to work with in his second season in Austin.

Texas finished 3-8 against teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and was 4-7 in true road games so there is some work to be done. The Longhorns were 1-6-1 against the college basketball betting lines over the last eight games of the 2021-22 season.

An early game against Gonzaga should be quite revealing. Non-conference matchups with Creighton and Illinois should help prepare the Longhorns for Big 12 play.

The returning players will have a better understanding of Beard’s system so perhaps the Longhorns will be even tougher to score against than they were a season ago.

2022-23 Texas Schedule

  • Season opener: vs UTEP, Nov. 7th, 9 p.m. ET
  • Big 12 opener: at Oklahoma, Dec. 31st, time TBA

Other Games to Watch

  • vs Gonzaga, Nov. 16th, 9:30 p.m. ET
  • vs Creighton Dec. 1st, 7 p.m. ET
  • vs Illinois (at Madison Square Garden), Dec. 6th, 7 p.m. ET
  • vs Stanford (at Dallas), Dec. 18th, 1 p.m. ET
  • vs Louisiana, Dec. 21st, time TBA
  • at Oklahoma State, Jan. 7th, Noon ET
  • vs Texas Christian, Jan. 11th, 9 p.m. ET
  • vs Texas Tech, Jan. 14th, 8 p.m. ET
  • vs Oklahoma State, Jan. 24th, 9 p.m. ET
  • at Tennessee, Jan. 28th, time TBA
  • vs Baylor, Jan. 30th, 9 p.m. ET
  • at Kansas, Feb. 6th, 9 p.m. ET
  • at Texas Tech, Feb. 13th, 9 p.m. ET
  • vs Oklahoma, Feb. 18th, 2 p.m. ET
  • at Baylor, Feb. 25th, 2 p.m. ET
  • at Texas Christian, March 1st, 9 p.m. ET
  • vs Kansas, March 4th, time TBA

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