North Carolina vs San Diego State Odds, First Four Prediction and March Madness Picks, March 18

Jim Fuller

· Mar 17 - 4 minutes read

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North Carolina vs San Diego State March Madness Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels

San Diego St. Aztecs

-4½ -110

Point Spread

+4½ -110

-180

Moneyline

+155

O 142½ -110

Total

U 142½ -110

O 73½ -115 | U 73½ -115

Total Game

O 69 -115 | U 69 -115

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North Carolina vs San Diego State Odds, Prediction and March Madness Picks — Ven-Allen Lubin #22 of the North Carolina Tar Heels | Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images/AFP

It’s good to be a Blue Blood because East Carolina or South Carolina would not have made it into the March Madness field with the results that North Carolina had this season. It is still hard to go against North Carolina to bet on March Madness.

However, the college basketball odds list the Tar Heels as a 4-point favorite against San Diego State in a First Four game on Tuesday with -180 odds to win outright.

North Carolina is tied for 36th at +25000 in our NCAA basketball championship odds. San Diego State tied for 44th at +50000.

North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction Today

My Prediction

North Carolina 72, San Diego State 67

There’s not much history between the Tar Heels and the Aztecs with North Carolina winning both previous meetings by double digits. The college basketball lines favor North Carolina to set up a matchup with Ole Miss by winning the First Four game.

𝐍𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐇 𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐀 𝐓𝐀𝐑 𝐇𝐄𝐄𝐋𝐒
📍 Dayton
🏀 #11 North Carolina vs #11 San Diego State pic.twitter.com/L8I29ELU94
— ACC Men’s Basketball (@accmbb) March 16, 2025

The last time North Carolina tasted defeat in one of its NCAA basketball games to a team other than Duke was a Feb. 10 loss to Clemson. That could factor into our college basketball picks.

Top 3 North Carolina vs San Diego State Betting Picks

My top picks

My Analysis

I don’t think North Carolina belongs in the March Madness bracket as the Tar Heels are being rewarded for playing a tough schedule instead of winning some of those games. However, they didn’t consult me when putting the bracket together.

North Carolina is playing its best basketball of the season and that is enough to roll with the Tar Heels to make college basketball news with a win in the First Four game.

San Diego State is in the top 15 in defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy college basketball database with the Aztecs preferring to slow things down. Each of San Diego State’s last five games landed under 142 points and it could be more of the same on Tuesday.

North Carolina vs San Diego State March Madness Best Prop Bet

Much like the season that the Tar Heels have had, the top players have been a bit inconsistent. The most productive player in recent NCAA basketball games has been junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin. He has nine straight double-digit scoring games and four double-doubles in his last five outings.

SHOUTOUT LUB 🗣️

Ven-Allen Lubin with the clutch buckets to help seal the deal for @UNC_Basketball. pic.twitter.com/3Um9GEEo2Z

— ACC Men’s Basketball (@accmbb) March 13, 2025