The Oklahoma Sooners (6-2, 2-1 Big 12) travel to No. 2 Baylor (9-0, 2-0) to try and end a five-game losing streak against the Bears. The Sooners are coming off their best win, downing West Virginia 75-71 after almost upsetting Texas Tech.
Baylor is looking like the second-best team in the country behind Gonzaga, and the gap does not appear to be that wide. The Bears have taken care of most opponents easily but have only one top-tier win over Illinois.
Baylor will get a chance to prove it belongs in the conversation with Gonzaga as Big 12 play kicks into full gear. Doing some online betting on Baylor to win the Big 12 Conference is definitely a solid pick.
Sooners Peaking Heading into Conference Play
After suffering a 22-point loss to Xavier in their third game of the season, Oklahoma has found another level of play as it aims for a spot in NCAA March Madness. The Sooners blew out three inferior opponents before narrowly losing at home to a good Texas Tech team and then defeating a Top 15 team in West Virginia.
Lon Kruger’s Sooners have not finished over .500 in the Big 12 play since 2016. This team could break that streak, but the Big 12 Conference is loaded as usual.
The Big Ten and Big 12 are far and away the two best conferences this season.
Senior Austin Reaves leads the team in scoring (15.5), rebounds (5.0), and assists (5.4). The 6-5 Reaves plays much bigger than his listed height.
Reaves has to hit the boards as Oklahoma is not a great rebounding team, and both of its big men, Kur Kuath and Brady Manek, are not great rebounders.
Manek is second on the team in scoring at 13.6 points per game and is shooting 41.6% from behind the arc. De’Vion Harmon is the only other Sooners’ player averaging in double figures at 11.6 points per game.
Oklahoma is ranked 44th in the nation by Kenpom. Its offense is ranked 15th in efficiency, while the defense ranks 64th.
The defense is really good at not putting its opponents at the free-throw line as they are holding their opponents to the fourth-fewest attempts in the country.
Baylor Buzzing
Baylor has been known for its defense under Scott Drew, as making your college basketball picks on the under in Baylor games is always a good bet. This season, Baylor is actually more efficient on offense (third) than on defense (sixth). The Bears are the only team in the nation to be ranked in the top six of both categories.
Jared Butler is having an All-American-level year and is the early favorite for Big 12 Player of the Year. Butler is averaging 16 points per game and 5.8 assists per game. He is also shooting over 45% from behind the arc.
Butler is not the only Bears player having a sensational year. Butler’s average of 5.8 assists per game would lead most teams in the nation, but it doesn’t because Davion Mitchell is averaging 6.7 assists per game. Mitchell also leads the team in steals at 2.7 per contest.
Macio Teague is second on the team in scoring at 15.9 per game. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is Baylor’s leading rebounder at eight per contest.
Betting Line and Pick
BetUS Sportsbook has Baylor as a 12-point favorite with the total set at 150 1/2 points.
While the Sooners are playing their best basketball, this Baylor team is on another level. Baylor likes to play small ball, so Oklahoma’s lack of size will not be an issue.
We do not think the Sooners have the talent to play with Baylor. Oklahoma will not be able to get the open 3s it has been hitting. Manek and Umoja Gibson are both shooting over 40% from behind the arc, and that just won’t happen against this Baylor team.
On top of betting Baylor to cover the 12-point spread, I also like the under in this one. Oklahoma may try and slow it down in this one to keep the game close, and points will be at a premium.
