Oregon State Should Cover As Home Underdog

Forward Harrison Hornery is questionable for USC. Oregon State guards Justin Rochelin and Nate Meithof are out.

The NCAA basketball predictions have the Trojan favored for the seventh straight meeting with Oregon State.

USC had won four games in a row against Oregon State before the Beavers won at home 61-58 as a nine-point underdog in the most recent matchup. Oregon State hasn’t won consecutive games against the Trojans since 2019.

Neither USC nor Oregon State are among the three Pac-12 teams receiving votes in the Associated Press poll.

When looking at the NCAA basketball futures odds, USC came into the season with the second-best odds of winning the Pac-12 title while Oregon State had the longest Pac-12 championship odds.

USC vs Oregon State Game Information

• Game: USC vs Oregon State
• Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 30, 10 p.m. ET
• Location: Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
• Southern California vs Oregon State Live Stream: TBS.com

Southern California is 6-3 when listed as the favorite while Oregon State has dropped each of the four games as the underdog. The numbers are almost identical against the spread with USC 5-4 as a favorite and Oregon State 0-3-1 as the underdog.

Oregon State is 8-1 at home while Southern California is 1-2 on the road.

The Trojans are priced at -400 to win the game with Oregon State at +320 on the moneyline according to the Las Vegas college Basketball odds.

USC vs Oregon State Odds and Spreads

Southern California vs Oregon State Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in six of USC’s last seven games.
• USC has covered in just two of its last eight road games against Oregon State.
• Oregon State is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games.
• USC is 6-3 when listed as a favorite this season.
• Oregon State has covered against the Las Vegas college basketball odds in five of its last six games versus Oregon State.
• The total has gone over in six of the Trojans’ last eight games against Pac-12 teams.
• The total has gone over in four of Oregon State’s last five games.
• Oregon State has won nine of its last 10 games.

Over/Under Pick: Over 140 (-110)

Neither team is lighting things up on offense. Oregon State is putting up just 71 points per game on 44% shooting. The Beavers are struggling to stay over 30% on 3-pointers. USC is slightly better with a scoring average of 78 points on 45% shooting.

This is the second time in the last seven meetings between the Trojans and Beavers to feature a total in the 140s. Still, it might be worth going with this matchup finishing over the total. California native Dexter Akanno had a career-high 22 points in Oregon State’s loss to UCLA and looks to have another big game versus the Trojans.

DA dropped a career-high 22 points last night!

Back at Gill tomorrow for a big matchup with USC!#GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/YBxUvY0nTq

— Oregon State Hoops (@BeaverMBB) December 30, 2023

ATS Pick: Oregon State (+8½, -110)

Oregon State failed to cover in its only other game as a home underdog. However, the line seems to be a bit on the high side.

USC has done fine against the mid-majors but the Trojans have not looked great in losses to Gonzaga, Auburn and Oregon so that is enough to roll with the Beavers to hang around in this matchup.

Player Prop Pick: USC’s Boogie Ellis To Have At Least 17 Points (-186)

It has been a tough stretch for USC’s Boogie Ellis as he is 4-for-20 from the field in the last two games and is shooting 38% over the last four games. He is too talented for that to continue.

Ellis didn’t do much against Oregon State last season with 16 points in 5-of-18 shooting in the two games. Don’t look for Ellis to erupt for a 30-point effort, but it could be worth going with him to have at least 15 points.

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Southern California vs Oregon State Prediction

Southern California 75, Oregon State 68

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