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San Diego State vs. Boise State Game Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions

San Diego State looking for second MWC title in a row

It has been more than a decade since San Diego State has won back-to-back Mountain West tournament titles and that is something that Aztecs are trying to accomplish on Saturday against a Boise State team making its first MWC final.

Boise won the two games during the regular season but as closely matched as these teams are, doing it for the third time will be quite the challenge.

Abu Kigab reacts Mountain West Final
David Becker/Getty Images/AFP

The March Madness predictions on the CBS Sports site have Boise State as a No. 6 seed and San Diego State as one of the No. 8 seed with four teams from the MWC in the field of 68 so this doesn’t feel like a win or else scenario for either team.

San Diego State jumped four spots to No. 24 in the NCAA NET rankings and has 10 Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins, which are more the Houston and as many as Iowa and Texas. Boise State is 29th in the NET rankings with 12 Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins so both teams have done enough to be part of the March Madness bracket.

Boise State and San Diego State are both listed at +4000 in the odds to reach the Final Four.

Bradley Looks To Deliver for San Diego State in MWC final

The other Mountain West coaches must have seen a spike in their blood pressure when Matt Bradley, who averaged 17.5 and 18 points in his previous two seasons at California, announced that he was transferring to San Diego State.

Bradley has had the expected impact for the Aztecs leading San Diego State in scoring while ranking second in rebounds, assists, and steals. However, Bradley has been pretty quiet in the Mountain West tournament with 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting. With an automatic berth into the NCAA tournament on the line, look for more production from the 6-foot-4 guard although the March Madness odds are projecting that the Aztecs are already in the field of 68.

There haven’t been many points in the postseason for San Diego State, which averaged 58 points in wins against Fresno State and Colorado State. All nine San Diego State players to take the court scored in the win over No. 23 Colorado State.

“I don’t know if that happened in a while,” San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher said after the semifinal victory. “We got contributions from a deep bench and that was important.”

San Diego State is 7-2 in its last nine games against the Las Vegas odds total.

Boise State Looks To Shoot Way to the NCAA Tournament

Boise State gave an early indication of how the 2021-22 season was going to play out when the Broncos connected on 67% of their shots inside the 3-point line in a season-opening win against Utah Valley.

Success from 3-point range has come and gone this year but Boise State has found a way to find other ways to score to win the regular-season title in the competitive Mountain West.

The Broncos will make their first appearance in the MWC final and their ability to produce when needed on the offensive end has been key to not only earning the No. 1 seed but advancing to the final. Boise State made more than 50% of its shots five times in the last six games in the regular season and in tournament victories against Nevada and Wyoming, Boise State shot 54% from inside the 3-point line.

Leading scorer Abu Kigab had 22 points in the semifinal win giving him four 20-point games in his last six outings. He will need to be on target again when Boise faces defending champion San Diego State in the championship game.

San Diego State has covered against the college basketball spreads in seven of its last nine games.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Head-to-Head

Boise State swept the regular-season games against San Diego State winning 58-57 on February 22 as a two-point favorite at home and 42-37 on January 22 as a 4½-point underdog on the road.

San Diego State had won the previous six matchups including a 13-point win in the 2020 Mountain West tournament and is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight.

Something of interest to those who bet online, each of the last three games between the Aztecs and Broncos went under the total.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Game Information

Game: San Diego State (23-7) vs. Boise State (26-7)

Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada

Day/Time: Saturday, March 12, 6 p.m. ET

Television: CBS

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Lines

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Prediction

San Diego State leads the Mountain West in both scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense while Boise State leads the conference in offensive rebounds per game and rebounding margin so this will not be a gentle matchup between two of the conference’s most physical teams.

The 118½-point total is the lowest of Saturday’s games and if this game goes over the total, it probably won’t be by much.

San Diego State’s previous championship game experience could be the difference in this one considering that the Aztecs are playing in the MWC title game for the fifth season in a row.

Pick: San Diego State Aztecs -140

Pick: San Diego State Aztecs -2½ (-110)

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