Take FIU to Cover Big Spread vs FAU

· Dec 13 - 5 minutes read

Florida Atlantic looks to bounce back from its second loss of the season when Florida International makes the short drive to Boca Raton. The Owls are the heavy favorites according to the college basketball lines as they face a team from Florida for the first time this season.

FIU is coming off a 15-point win over Long Island as the Golden Panthers held their opponents under 60 points for the first time this season. FAU dropped a 98-89 decision to Illinois in the Jimmy V Classic in its last game.

The college basketball odds list Florida Atlantic as a 23½-point favorite. This is the fourth time in a row that FAU is a double-digit favorite against FIU as the Owls go after their seventh consecutive victory against their rivals. FIU’s last win in the series came in 2020.

Forward Jonathan Aybar, who is third on the team with 9.6 points per game and second in rebounding, is questionable for FIU after missing the last game. Forward Mohamed Sanogo also missed the most recent contest.

For FAU, Nick Boyd hasn’t played since a Nov. 18 loss to Bryant and it is uncertain when he will return. He is one of the Owls’ four double-digit scorers.

Florida Atlantic, coming off an improbable run to the Final Four, dropped four spots to No. 15 in the Associated Press poll after the loss to Illinois and went from ninth to 14th in the USA Today Coaches poll.

Another week in the @AP_Top25 ✅#WinningInParadise pic.twitter.com/mJqsE3PkGe

— No. 15 Florida Atlantic Men’s Basketball (@FAUMBB) December 11, 2023

When looking at the college basketball futures odds, Florida Atlantic (+4000) is tied for 17th in the odds of winning the NCAAM championship.

Ball Security an Issue for FIU

Not being able to rebound and turning the ball over is a combination that makes it hard to win.

Florida International ranks 356th among Division I teams in rebounds per game and is 354th with 16.3 turnovers per contest.

The Golden Panthers turned the ball over just nine times in the win over Long Island so perhaps that is a sign of progress.

FIU has been outrebounded in each of its last six games.

Four of Florida International’s last five games have gone under the Las Vegas NCAAB odds.

FAU Flying High on Offense

Don’t expect to see Florida Atlantic walk the ball up the court.

The Owls rank 28th nationally in scoring offense as they are one of the best shooting teams in the country.

Florida Atlantic is 18th in Division I with a 50.5 field-goal percentage and 40th in 3-point shooting.

Leading scorer Vladislav Goldin is connecting on 73.7% of his shots this season while Johnell Davis is 16 of 33 from 3-point range. Goldin averaged 10.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against Florida International last season.

Four of Florida Atlantic’s last six games landed over the college basketball spread total.

Go With FAU to Win, FIU to Cover

With Florida Atlantic moving to the American Athletic Conference, this will be a non-conference matchup instead of a Conference USA game.

FAU is 19-1 in its last 20 home games so going with the Owls to win outright is an obvious choice, but not one with much of a reward due to a -4000 moneyline.

The 23½-point line seems a bit on the high side even if Florida International is less than 100% in this matchup, though the Golden Panthers have covered in just two of the last six meetings against FAU.

It is a tough call on the 153.5-point total even though 10 of the last 15 times that FAU played at home against the Golden Panthers, the game went over the total.

The 154½-point total is the highest between the teams since both games in the 2018-19 season were over 150.

Keep that in mind when making NCAA basketball picks today.

NCAAB Pick: FIU +23½ (-110)

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