UC San Diego vs Michigan Odds, Prediction and March Madness Picks March 20

Two conference champions meet in the first round of March Madness as the 5-seed Michigan Wolverines take on the 12-seed UC San Diego Tritons. Michigan stormed through the Big Ten Tournament to secure its spot, while UCSD is making its NCAA Tournament debut after an impressive 30-win season. Can the Tritons pull off an upset, or will Michigan’s size prove too much to handle? Let’s dig into my March Madness bets for today.

UC San Diego vs Michigan Prediction March 20

My prediction

UC San Diego is a trendy upset pick against March Madness odds for good reason. The Tritons boast an elite defense, forcing 15.9 turnovers per game and holding opponents to just 61.6 points per game (6th nationally). That’s a problem for Michigan, which averages over 14 turnovers per game and struggles against pressure-heavy defenses.

Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones

Year by year improvement

2021 – ‘23 – Hawaii-Hilo D2
17 PPG / 2.7 AST
48% FG / 71% FT / 55% TS

2024 – UC-SD
13 PPG / 2.9 AST
56% FG / 73% FT / 61% TS
Newcomer of the year – Big West

2025 – UC-SD
19 PPG / 3.7 AST
58% FG / 76% FT / 65% TS
Conf player of… pic.twitter.com/mznF3FvASE

— Stevie Cozens (@StevieCozens) March 16, 2025

But what UCSD doesn’t have is size. Michigan’s Danny Wolf (7’0”) and Vlad Goldin (7’1”) will be the biggest players the Tritons have faced all year. That inside presence, plus Michigan’s recent surge in the Big Ten Tournament, gives the Wolverines the edge. It won’t be pretty, but they should survive and advance.

Top 3 UC San Diego vs Michigan Betting Picks

My top picks

• Michigan ATS -2.5 (-110)
• UC San Diego vs Michigan Under 124
• Best UC San Diego vs Michigan point-scorer bet: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones Under 18.5 points (-106)

My Analysis

Michigan’s turnover issues make them a dangerous favorite, but their size advantage inside should control the game. UC San Diego forces a ton of turnovers, but Michigan thrives in the half-court when they get set up.

As for the Under, both teams will have to adjust to the altitude in Denver, which tends to slow down first halves. Michigan’s defense has been underrated, and UCSD’s slow-paced, defensive-minded approach should help keep scoring low.

Finally, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones Under 18.5 points is a strong fade to round out my NCAAB expert picks. He’s been outstanding all year, but he hasn’t faced Power 5 size like Michigan’s.

UC San Diego vs Michigan March Madness Best Prop Bet

Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones Over 3.5 Assists

Tait-Jones is UCSD’s primary playmaker, averaging 3.7 assists per game, and he’s gone over this number in 10 of his last 12 games. Michigan’s defense will likely key in on him as a scorer, forcing him to distribute more. For your March Madness predictions, expect him to rack up assists as he finds open teammates against Michigan’s pressure.

Bet on Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones over 3.5 assists (+104)

UC San Diego vs Michigan How To Watch

• Game: UC San Diego (30-4) vs Michigan (25-9)
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date/Time: Thursday, March 20, 10:00 p.m. ET
• UC San Diego vs Michigan Live Stream: TBS.com

Get UC San Diego vs Michigan stats here.