Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Prediction and March Madness Picks March 21

The No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) take on the No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) in a first-round matchup on Friday, March 21. Saint Mary’s is favored by 4.5 points, with the Over/Under set at 135.5 according to the college basketball odds at BetUS.

The Gaels boast one of the best defenses in the country (60.7 PPG allowed, 5th nationally) and will look to slow down Vanderbilt’s fast-paced offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores have struggled defensively (74.8 PPG allowed, 263rd nationally) and will need to shoot well from deep to keep this close.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Prediction Today  March 21

My prediction

Good March Madness news for Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are elite defensively and dominate the boards, ranking 6th in rebounding rate. Their methodical pace should frustrate Vanderbilt, which thrives in transition and relies on three-point shooting.

Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 84th in adjusted efficiency, and they struggle to contain efficient half-court offenses. Saint Mary’s has the size and discipline to control the tempo and limit the Commodores’ scoring opportunities. Expect a low-scoring battle where Saint Mary’s defense wins out.

Top 3 Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Betting Picks

My top picks

1. Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s ATS Pick: Saint Mary’s -4.5
2. Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s O/U Pick: Under 135.5
3. Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Best Point-Scorer Bet: Augustas Marciulionis Over 14.5 Points (-115)

My Analysis

Saint Mary’s elite defense and slow tempo will make it difficult for Vanderbilt to find consistent offense, which is why I expect the Gaels to cover the spread. The Under 135.5 is a strong play because both teams rank outside the top 180 in pace, and Saint Mary’s defensive efficiency (5th nationally) will limit Vanderbilt’s scoring opportunities.

Saint Mary’s vs Vanderbilt:

Saint Mary’s plays very slow (over 20 seconds per offensive possession), plays solid defense (8th), and rebounds the ball extremely well (2nd in offensive rebounding). Their two biggest wins this year were both against Gonzaga (also beat USC 71-36… pic.twitter.com/Lk9YaCzD4J

— March Madness Cheat Sheet (@cbbstatsheet) March 19, 2025

Offensively, Augustas Marciulionis (14.2 PPG) is the go-to scorer for Saint Mary’s and should get plenty of chances in a half-court game. Vanderbilt struggles to contain strong backcourt players, making Marciulionis a solid pick to hit Over 14.5 points in a controlled, grind-it-out college basketball game for today.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s March Madness Best Prop Bet

Mitchell Saxen Over 7.5 Rebounds (-139)

Saint Mary’s dominates the boards, and Saxen is their top rebounder (7.9 RPG). That is why he highlights my NCAAB expert picks for props on Friday. Vanderbilt is undersized, ranking outside the top 90 in rebounding, giving Saxen a clear advantage inside. Expect Saxen to rack up boards and control the paint in a grind-it-out game with limited possessions. This might be one of the best rebounding performances among all college basketball games today.

Bet on Mitchell Saxen Over 7.5 Rebounds (-139)

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s How To Watch

• Game: Vanderbilt (20-12) vs Saint Mary’s (28-5)
• Location: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
• Date/Time: Friday, March 21, 3:15 p.m. ET
• Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Live Stream: fubo.tv

Get Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s stats here.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.