Baylor Awaits Skidding West Virginia

Six of Baylor’s nine games this month have been decided by 10 points or less, with the Bears going 3-3 in those games, including a nine-point win at West Virginia on Jan. 18.

Baylor (+1000) is tied with Duke and Purdue for the second-best odds to win the national championship. West Virginia comes in at +12000.

The Bears (+160) have the second-best odds behind Kansas to win the Big 12 title while West Virginia (+6500) is tied for seventh.

• • Game: West Virginia (13-7) at Baylor (18-3)
  • Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
  • Day/Time: Monday, 9 p.m. ET
  • Television: ESPN2

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears

Visitors Mired in Losing Streak

There are many factors contributing to West Virginia’s current five-game losing streak, including three straight games against ranked opponents. The fact that the Mountaineers have been outrebounded by 43 in losses to Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Arkansas hasn’t aided their cause.

The rebounding issues were especially noticeable the last time out when Arkansas controlled the boards vs. West Virginia 44-26 and attempted 13 more free throws in a 77-68 win in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

“I’ve told our bigs this, ‘If you are not even going to try and rebound I just can’t play you,'” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said after the loss to Arkansas. “That’s kind of what happened when (Dimon Carrigan) got tired and we didn’t have a sub.”

The rebounding issues are nothing new for the Mountaineers, who rank last in the Big 12 in rebounding margin. They are also last in rebounds allowed and defensive rebounds per game.

West Virginia won five of its first six games  when being outrebounded but that is not a sustainable trend, as the recent stretches of games has proved.

The Mountaineers will be going up against one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the conference. When the teams played on Jan. 18, West Virginia held its own as both teams pulled down 36 rebounds, including a 13-10 edge on the offensive glass by the Mountaineers.  West Virginia needs to repeat hose numbers.

West Virginia has failed to cover against the college basketball spreads in each of its last five games.

Injuries Hampering Baylor’s Top Players

Baylor headed into Saturday’s game against Alabama in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge without leading scorer LJ Cryer due to a foot issue. Second-leading scorer James Akinjo is still working his way back after missing time as a result of injury. Akinjo finished with eight points on 4-of-13 shooting in the loss.

Baylor has James Akinjo back, but is without LJ Cryer due to a foot injury #SicEm https://t.co/6lr7rwLqni

— Niki Lattarulo (@NikiLattarulo) January 29, 2022

Akinjo is averaging 4.3 points on 22 percent shooting in his last three games after having scored in double figures in eight straight games, including three 20-point efforts.

Kendall Brown, Jonathan Tchatchoua and Flo Thamba are the only Baylor players to appear in all 21 games.

The loss to Alabama was the first non-conference defeat for Baylor since 2019. It will be nothing but conference games the rest of the way for the Bears.

A key for Baylor has been points off turnovers. When winning that category, the Bears are 15-0, and they are also 14-0 when having more points in the paint than its opponent so toughness will be a point of emphasis as Baylor looking to put pressure on first-place Kansas.

Baylor allowed Alabama to shoot 59.2 percent in Saturday’s loss. It was the third time in the last eight games that an opponent shot better than 50 percent against Baylor. Playing a West Virginia team that ranks ninth out of 10 conference teams in scoring offense could help Baylor tighten things up a bit on the defensive end.

The total, set by the Las Vegas odds, has gone under in four of the last five times Baylor hosted West Virginia.

Ball Security Could Hold Key to Upset Bid

Baylor and West Virginia rank first and third in the Big 12 in turnover margin, so ball security will be of paramount importance, especially considering that Baylor is second in the Big 12 in steals per game.

In the first meeting, Baylor turned the ball over one more time than West Virginia and managed only seven steals. West Virginia is hoping for similar numbers on Monday.

Five of the last six games between Baylor and West Virginia have gone over the total. Eight of Baylor’s last 12 games have gone over the total, as have West Virginia’s last five games. Points have been hard to come by for West Virginia at times, so a slower pace and lower score would seem to benefit the visiting Mountaineers.

The 14-point spread does seem a bit on the high side, especially considering that Baylor’s top scorer missed the last game and its No. 2 scorer is clearly not at 100 percent.

The last time Baylor was favored by more than 10 points against West Virginia came in 2019, when the Bears won by seven. It won’t be surprising to see the game play out that way again

Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers +14 (-110)