New Mexico State ATS Pick vs Fresno State in New Mexico Bowl
After checking out all the bowl game lines, we came across this unheralded matchup where the major online sports betting sites have simply misjudged how good this New Mexico team is this season. Let’s analyze this New Mexico Bowl clash vs. Fresno State and keep cashing our college football picks.
New Mexico State ATS Kings
New Mexico State has been a veritable ATM for bettors this season, cashing in eight consecutive games before the Aggies’ conference championship game against Liberty. The college football lines were giving the Aggies a 10-point head start over their undefeated hosts and many dog lovers ate it up like a big ol’ bowl of mocha chip.
Although I couldn’t disagree with taking the points, there was something that made me back off as Liberty is in a different class. While I would like to tell you I bet Liberty, like many of the chalk-eaters out there, that game was a pass for me. My instincts were right as the Flames torched the New Mexico State 49-35 in what proved to be a game in which the offenses took over and the defenses could only helplessly watch.
Despite the loss, it has been an encouraging season for the Aggies. The team got great news when head coach Jerry Kill said Aggies quarterback Diego Pavia will be good to go on Saturday after suffering a shoulder injury in the game against Liberty two weeks ago.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Best Bet
As football bowl games go, this one will not be circled on anyone’s calendar except friends and family. However, that doesn’t mean a thing when it comes to exploiting a weakness in the lines and pouncing on a money-making opportunity.
Speaking of which, Fresno State has defeated New Mexico State in six of their last seven games. But when we introduce the point spread, the Aggies have brought home the cash for their backers in six of those seven games. It doesn’t matter who wins, it matters who covers, and New Mexico State will not only win this game but cover the number. Here’s why.
Third string QB? No problem
Blaze Berlowitz stepping up and delivering for @NMStateFootball! He finds Trent Hudson in the end zone to tie this game up!
📺: @CBSSportsNet pic.twitter.com/FweZMfpE2L
— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) December 2, 2023
Both teams have decent passing games with Fresno ranked 29th in the nation, averaging 274 yards, while New Mexico State checks in with the 64th passing attack, averaging 224 yards. Don’t let that stat deceive you.
While Fresno’s offense is completely one-dimensional with an anemic rushing attack ranked 118th in the country, the Aggies boast the No. 11 rushing attack, chewing up nearly 204 yards per game. And add to that the Bulldogs do not possess a stout run-stop unit, ranking 96th in the nation in that category.
The New Mexico State offense can beat you in so many ways with a quarterback in Pavia, who is as adept passing the ball (26 TDs, 8 INTs, 2,915 passing yards, 61.6% completion percentage) as he is running it (6 rushing TDs, 851 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry average).
Lastly, the Aggies own the 36th-ranked defense in the nation, surrendering 21.8 points per game which is over three PPG less than the Bulldogs. This is a double-digit win by the Aggies.
College Football Pick: New Mexico State -4
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Game Information
- Game: New Mexico State (10-4) vs Fresno State (8-4)
- Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 16, 5:45 p.m. ET
- Location: University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM
- New Mexico State vs Fresno State Live Stream: ESPN
Questions Of The Day
Which WR has more probabilities to record more receiving yards?
Fresno State’s Erik Brooks is most likely to lead this game in receiving yards.
Will either team have more than 3 interceptions?
No, based on the statistical data, neither team will record three interceptions.
