X
Skip to content

Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida Gators: Betting Guide

The biggest game of the young season in the Southeastern Conference will feature two of its more successful programs in the last 20 years. While the Crimson Tide of Alabama have undoubtedly been the league’s dominant program, the Florida Gators have found their own success in recent years.

The 11th-ranked Gators improved in 2020 and won the SEC East. They lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. This year, new quarterback Emory Jones will lead the Gators into a home battle with a freshly reloaded Alabama squad coming off a dominant national title run in 2020. Bryce Young leads the No. 1 Crimson Tide so let’s take a closer look at the NCAA odds.

Anthony Richardson of the Florida Gators rushes for a fourth quarter touchdown during a game against the South Florida Bulls
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

 

Game: No. 1 Alabama (2-0) at No. 11 Florida (2-0)

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Television: CBS

 

Betting Lines

Team Point Spread Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
Alabama -14½ -650 59½
Florida +14½ +475 59½

Head to Head

The last time these teams met was in the 2020 SEC Championship Game. Florida scored 46 points, but it wasn’t enough to win. Alabama scored 52 points and moved on to the College Football Playoff. The game in Atlanta was a shootout because Florida had the weapons to keep pace, with quarterback Kyle Trask throwing to tight end and future No. 4 NFL draft pick Kyle Pitts. Trask and Pitts are gone this year, so Florida needs to create a game plan much more rooted in defense, field position and special teams. Alabama has the much better offense

Alabama Crimson Tide

Next game: vs. Southern Miss

Last Game

Alabama’s last game was against Mercer. There really isn’t much to say about this contest. It’s Alabama. It’s Mercer. The game had little purpose other than to give Alabama starters a breather and the backups a lot of live in-game repetitions. Bryce Young looks the part at quarterback, but he hasn’t really been tested by a stout defense. Florida has some players who can give Alabama’s offense a physical challenge. This does not figure to be another 52-46 game and there’s nothing from the Mercer game which might influence that opinion one way or the other. The Crimson Tide opened the season in impressive fashion by demolishing then-No. 14 Miami (Fla.) 44-13.

Injury Report

Alabama appears to have almost everyone available for this game. Linebacker Quandarrius Robinson was suspended for the first two games, so who knows if he will be playing against Florida. Inside linebacker Chris Allen is out indefinitely for the Crimson Tide. Xavier Williams is out for the season. Henry To’oTo’o is nursing an elbow injury and may be  listed as questionable, but he’s going to play unless things massively take a turn for the worse in the days before kickoff.

Florida

Next game: vs Tennessee

Last Game

The Gators cruised past South Florida 42-20. They led 35-3 at the half and then basically shut down in the second half, jogging to the finish line. South Florida outscored Florida 17-7 after halftime, something head coach Dan Mullen cannot be very happy about. It’s one thing to give up touchdowns and stop scoring in the final five to seven minutes of a blowout. It’s another matter to score just seven points in a whole half. Florida got lazy and that doesn’t bode well against an opponent that demands total focus over the course of 60 minutes.

The big point of intrigue with Florida is whether Jones will retain the starting quarterback job over backup Anthony Richardson. Against South Florida, Richardson threw only three passes, but they went for 152 yards. He rushed the ball only four times for 115 yards. Richardson had the ball seven times and generated 267 yards on those seven touches, an average of just over 38 yards per touch. That’s crazy-good production. If Jones does not start well against Alabama, expect Richardson to enter sooner rather than later, although he is listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury.

Injury Report

Cornerback Jaydon Hill is out for the year and Richardson, defensive back Trey Dean and linebacker Ventrell Miller are questionable. Other than that, Florida is good to go for its most important game of the young season.

Betting on the Game

Moneyline

Taking Alabama to win outright is usually a safe bet no matter who the Tide are playing. There’s usually value to be had with Alabama in some form or fashion, even if the Tide are almost always the betting favorite in their matchups. Florida’s last few efforts against Alabama preceding the 2020 SEC Championship Game didn’t end well for the Gators in most instances. There’s reason to believe Alabama could lose this contest, if Florida plays its best possible game on defense and Richardson gets a chance to lead the offense for more snaps. However, the Crimson Tide are a substantial favorite for a reason. Alabama is a bunch of road warriors, going 5-0 in its last five away games  The Tide have also won 11 straight SEC games. This is a good team and they’re primed for a loss eventually, but Florida doesn’t seem the likely candidate in a straight-up bet. Take Alabama with your college football picks.

Point Spread

Alabama at -14½ seems like a fair line. The Tide’s victories over Florida in their last eight games were by an average margin of 18 points, so that’s important to remember if you bet online. That’s already higher than the spread in this game. The question doesn’t seem to be whether the Tide are better than Florida, it’s by how much. Do fans feel as though the Tide are 15 points better than Florida in 2021? Alabama is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games against the Gators. If those two things combined don’t push bettors to the Tide, not much will. How Bryce Young fares against an SEC defense is anyone’s guess. The spread seems to be almost as safe a bet as taking the Tide straight up.

Over/Under

Alabama over/unders against Florida are 7-3 overs in the last 10 meetings. The O/U is currently set at 59½ and that seems to be fair given Alabama has averaged 57 points in the last eight games against the Gators. The Tide just seem to understand how to win big games, and they give Florida the respect they deserve and usually bring their very best. Teams like Florida aren’t yet equipped with the personnel to beat Alabama right now. Mullen was hired to win now, but that’s an very tough ask when Alabama is the opponent. Overs have been the better play in the last 10 games between these teams, so that’s hard to go against.

Final Score: Alabama 47, Florida 19

Did you find this article interesting?

Comments (0)