CFB Prediction 2024: No. 9 Penn State to Ride Arm of Allar

· Aug 21 - 6 minutes read

Penn State returns star quarterback Drew Allar and its top two running backs.
The Nittany Lions won’t face defending national champion Michigan or Big Ten newcomer Oregon during the regular season.
Penn State has won 27 of its last 30 games as the favorite and is likely to be favored in 11 of 12 games this season.
Check out the reasons why Penn State is at No. 9 in the BetUS list of the Top 25 college football teams in 2024.

Penn State has been saddled with the tag of being the third-best team in the Big Ten in the last few years while being stuck in the same division as Big Ten heavyweights Michigan and Ohio State. With the addition of four former Pac-12 teams, the Big Ten has done away with the two-division format so perhaps this is the year that the Nittany Lions can return to the Big Ten Championship Game. Only Ohio State and Oregon have shorter odds of winning the Big Ten title than Penn State heading into the season.

2024 College Football Odds: Penn State 9th in Top 25 Countdown — Beau Pribula #9 - Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Penn State is priced at -145 in the college football odds to make the College Football Playoffs. The Nittany Lions could be one of the biggest winners with the CFP expanding from four to 12 teams. They are tied for eighth at +2000 in the odds of winning the national championship.

Penn State also has +130 odds to go over 10.5 wins during the regular season. A 10-win season might be enough to get the Nittany Lions into the College Football Playoff field. The college football betting lines currently have the Nittany Lions as the underdog only against Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions finished third behind Ohio State and Oregon in the Big Ten preseason poll. Penn State is eighth in the Associated Press preseason poll and ninth in the American Football Coaches Association preseason rankings. The BetUS Top 25 countdown has Penn State at No. 9.

Penn State Seminoles at a Glance

2023 record: 10-3
2023 Big Ten Record: 7-2
Head coach: James Franklin
Odds To Win Big Ten: +500

Star Power Returns on Offense

Penn State will certainly miss offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, who was the 11th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

However, the Nittany Lions welcome back quarterback Drew Allar, one of the most talented passers in the Big Ten and in the country. He hasn’t always had the chance to air it out as much as other top college quarterbacks. He offers plenty of value at +3500 in the Heisman Trophy odds. He has the sixth-shortest odds of +1200 to lead the Big Ten in passing yards. He has the same odds to be the first quarterback chosen in the 2025 NFL Draft and that speaks volumes about the system he is playing in.

Will the Penn State offense be built around Allar or will the return of star running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton limit the chances for Allar to put up big passing numbers?

Penn State QB Drew Allar has some nice pocket awareness and rushing upside to his game. Good mobility for being 6’5″ 238.
Just need to see that ball placement consistency improve this season.
Hopefully new OC can unlock his potential. pic.twitter.com/NwxPRBt2ZC

— Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive) August 19, 2024

The group of pass catchers will look much different with the transfer of leading receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith and tight end Theo Johnson now with the New York Giants. Former Ohio State receiver Julian Fleming could become a popular target for Penn State in 2024. Tight end Tyler Warren could have a huge year. The Nittany Lions lost three starters on the offensive line.

Penn State brought in just six transfers. Georgia cornerback A.J. Harris, Ohio State receiver Julian Fleming and Wisconsin offensive tackle Nolan Rucci lead the list of incoming transfers while safety King Mack, receivers KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephas and cornerback Jalen Kimber were among the players transferring elsewhere.

Tight end Luke Reynolds and offensive lineman Cooper Cousins were top-100 high school recruits for Penn State.

Leading tackler Kevin Winston, linebacker Kobe King, defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Carter are also back for Penn State, which brings back four of the top five tacklers off a defense that allowed the second-fewest yards per game and yards per play in the Big Ten last season.

Watch List — @Lombardi_Award

College Football’s Most Outstanding Lineman#WeAre x @1NCRDB1 pic.twitter.com/qnoxsz8Nx2

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) August 16, 2024

Penn State 2024 Betting Outlook

Penn State has lost 10 of its last 11 games to Ohio State and is 3-7 in its last 10 games against Michigan. The Nittany Lions lost to both Michigan and Ohio State in each of the last three seasons but are 28-2 in the other regular-season games.

The Nittany Lions don’t play Michigan this season or No. 2 Big Ten favorite Oregon. The Ohio State game is at home so there is a chance for the Nittany Lions to make some noise in the Big Ten this season.

The first game against a ranked opponent comes on Oct. 12 against USC and the matchup with Ohio State the only other one versus a team in the top 25 in the national polls. Penn State is 27-3 as the favorite over the last three seasons and 1-8 as the underdog. If that continues, the Nittany Lions could play for the Big Ten title.

The Nittany Lions covered in nine of the 11 games as a favorite in 2023. Since the start of the 2021 season, no Big Ten team has covered as frequently as Penn State when the college football spread lists the Nittany Lions as the favorite.

Penn State opens up the season against West Virginia for the second season in a row. The Nittany Lions won the 2023 game 38-15. However, this game will be in Morgantown with the Nittany Lions currently a double-digit road favorite.