CFP Prediction: Tennessee Checks in at No. 12 in Top 25 Countdown

· Aug 15 - 5 minutes read

Top pro prospect James Pearce is among the Tennessee players to keep an eye on this season.
Tennessee won’t play four of the six teams ahead of the Volunteers in the SEC preseason poll.
Nico Iamaleava takes over as the starting quarterback for the Volunteers.
Check out the reasons why Tennessee is at No. 12 in the BetUS list of the Top 25 college football teams in 2024.

Even after the loss of some key players to the NFL, the Tennessee Volunteers were viewed by NCAA football betting fans as a team capable of earning a spot in the SEC Championship Game and perhaps even receiving an invitation in the College Football Playoffs.

CFP Prediction: Tennessee Checks in at No. 12 in Top 25 Countdown — Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers-Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

However, four double-digit point losses ended those hopes. The college football odds view Tennessee as a team to watch in the SEC once again in 2024.

Even before starting SEC play, Tennessee will head to Charlotte, N.C., for a non-conference matchup with North Carolina State.

Even with the College Football Playoffs expanding from four to 12 teams, the college football championship odds have Tennessee priced at +185 to make it into the CFP field. Tennessee is currently at +3500 in the odds of winning the national championship.

Tennessee was picked to finish seventh in the SEC preseason poll. Center Cooper Mays joins edge rusher and top pro prospect James Pearce as first-team selections on the preseason All-SEC team. They were also named to the preseason All-American team by ESPN.

Both sides of the ball are recognized on the @espn Preseason All-American team 🇺🇸@JamesPearceJr10 @CooperMays
#GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/c3Bzv7jd1G

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) August 14, 2024

Tennessee just missed posting back-to-back seasons with at least 10 wins for the first time in 20 years. The college football futures odds have Tennessee at -180 to go over 9½ wins during the regular season.

The Volunteers came in at No. 15 in both the Associated Press and the American Football Coaches Association preseason polls. The BetUS Top 25 countdown has Tennessee at No. 12.

Tennessee Volunteers at a Glance

2023 record: 9-4
2023 SEC record: 4-4
Head coach: Josh Heupel
Odds to win SEC title: +1000

Former Top Recruit Iamaleava Takes Over as Tennessee QB

Nico Iamaleava attempted just 26 passes a season ago. Now that he has been handed the keys to the Tennessee offense, he is tied for fourth at +1200 in the Heisman Trophy odds.

on repeat 🔁 @nico_iamaleava8 #GBO🍊 pic.twitter.com/sW86F0oqIT

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) August 12, 2024

The 6-foot-6 California native was the No. 2-rated player in the Class of 2023 according to 247sports.com recruiting database. Now it is time for him to start showing what all the buzz was about.

Receiver Bru McCoy is back after being limited to five games last season while Squirrel White and Donte Thornton are joined by transfers Chris Brazzell and Holden Staes for what could be an improved passing attack.

There are some key returnees on the offensive line led by center Cooper Mays and that is good news for top running back Dylan Sampson.

The big name on defense is edge rusher James Pearce. After recording 9.5 sacks and returning an interception 52 yards for a touchdown in the 2023 season, Pearce is tied for the second-shortest odds to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Tennessee was sixth nationally and first in the SEC with 101 tackles for loss. Can the Volunteers repeat that success in 2024? Tyler Baron left for Miami and that could hurt.

However, the real questions are in the secondary. Between the NFL Draft and the transfer portal, the top six tacklers in the defensive backfield are gone.

Leading tackler Elijah Herring left for Memphis so some new faces will have to emerge for one of the two SEC defenses to allow less than five yards per offensive play in 2023.

Tennessee 2024 Betting Outlook

Tennessee has lost its last five regular-season games to ranked opponents. That will need to change with four games against teams showing up in the preseason top 25 in the national polls.

The Volunteers were 9-2 as a favorite last season and have won 24 of their last 28 games when favored by the college football spread. A 3-8 record as the underdog since the start of the 2021 season is a cause for concern.

Tennessee covered in just one of the four road games in 2023 and failed to cover in both games as the underdog. Tennessee was only 3-5 ATS versus SEC teams a season ago.

Tennessee faces both Alabama and Georgia during the regular season but won’t play the other four teams ahead of the Volunteers in the SEC preseason poll.

The Volunteers have lost 16 of their last 17 games against Alabama, with 14 of those losses by double digits. The average margin of defeat in a seven-game losing streak to Georgia is 26.4 points so there is some work to do.

After Florida’s surprising win against Tennessee in 2023, the Oct. 12 visit to Knoxville by the Gators could have added meaning for the Volunteers.

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