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CFP Prediction: Under Looks Like Best Bet for Florida 2024 Win Total
- Florida has had three straight losing seasons and is on the verge of a fourth, which has not happened since 1935-38.
- The one thing Florida can rely on is that its offense will be able to put up points, but the defense is a big question mark.
- Florida has one of the most demanding schedules in the nation, making it challenging to find wins that allow betting on the win total.
Florida has the history to match up with most programs in the nation but is currently falling behind. The Gators have had three straight losing seasons and, according to college football predictions, are on the brink of a fourth, which has not happened since the 1930s. It is officially time to be concerned, and a brutal schedule will surely not help.
Being in the SEC does not do Florida any favors. The Gators’ schedule could have been much worse, with them being in one of the toughest conferences and needing easier matchups outside of the SEC, which certainly does not help. However, this roster is better than 2023, but that might not show in their record.
Defense Makes it Hard to Bet Florida in 2024
Last season, Florida got off to a strong start despite losing its opening game. After seven games, the Gators were 5-2, including a win over Tennessee, which headlined college football news and was a big-time upset.
However, even in that final win against South Carolina, the cracks of this Florida defense started to show. The Gators gave up 39 points in their final win of the season before losing the next five games, giving up 38.2 points per game. They finished the season allowing 27.6 points per game, the fourth most in the SEC.
Going into 2024, the issue is still the defense. There were very few losses to the draft or transfer portal on that side of the ball, which speaks more to Florida’s struggles last season. What could make matters worse is that Princely Umanmielen, the one player who did have a good season and was Florida’s best pass rusher in 2023, transferred out to Ole Miss.
Taking this hit and still placing the ball perfectly 20+ yards downfield is some impressive work by Florida’s Graham Mertz.
Mertz’s 80.2% adjusted completion rate last season is the second-highest among returning P4 QBs. pic.twitter.com/WqGyNHEOWH
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) July 24, 2024
Given that the Gators’ defense is unreliable and will be a massive question mark going into 2024college football lines, it is at least good that they might have one of the top offenses in the SEC. Quarterback Graham Mertz was one of the best in the conference, with a completion percentage of 72.9%, throwing for 2,903 yards, 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
4️⃣ Gators earn All-SEC Preseason Honors!
🔗: https://t.co/42SBEsoyeh#GoGators pic.twitter.com/rbQmJIPBbv
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) July 19, 2024
Mertz did lose his top wide receiver to the NFL, and arguably Florida’s best running back transferred to Georgia. However, there is more than enough talent on the offense to be successful. Running back Montrell Johnson Jr. is still on the team, having led the team in carries (152) and rushing yards (817) last season.
Eugene Wilson III also led the team in receiving touchdowns in 2023 (six) while finishing second in receptions (61) and yards (538). Plus, most of the top transfers that Florida was able to bring were all on the offensive side of the ball.
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Florida 2024 Schedule Breakdown
When looking at Florida’s schedule, its college football odds start making much more sense. The Gators have only one clear win on their schedule, and the rest are all 50/50 games.
Usually, big programs get a few free wins when they face teams outside of the conference, but Florida does not have such luck this season. Facing Samford should be a nice, easy win for the Gators in the second game of the season, but then the other non-conference games are Miami, Florida State and UCF. Florida State was undefeated in the regular season last season, while Miami and UCF are challenging matchups despite the Gators being at home in those two games.
Florida did luck out for its conference game by not having Alabama on its schedule. However, the Gators will still likely pick up two automatic losses when facing Georgia and then going on the road against Texas. Some games are up for grabs, like Texas A&M or Kentucky at home, but those are still tough matchups and can go either way.
Florida Win Total Prediction: Under 4.5 Best Bet
Despite having a better overall roster, especially on the offense, compared to 2023, that might not translate into wins. The biggest reason for that is the Gators’ schedule, and when making college football picks on the win total, it is hard to predict where those wins will come from.
Picking the under makes the most sense, even though it is a low line. It is just hard to find many wins in Florida’s schedule. In most 50/50 games, the defense has the advantage, which is the Gators’ biggest question mark.
Question of the Day
Who is the best player on Florida’s team?
The obvious choice is quarterback Graham Mertz. Florida will sink or swim on the strength of its offense, and Mertz will need another solid season to keep the team competitive.
