CFP Predictions: Why SMU Could Win National Title
- Get the best College Football Playoff odds at BetUS.
- Can the Mustangs continue to defy the odds in the CFP?
- The SMU vs Penn State betting lines have the Mustangs as underdogs.
There were six teams with shorter odds of winning the ACC title than SMU when the season began. However, the Mustangs went undefeated in conference play during the regular season in their first season in the ACC. Even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game on a 56-yard field goal on the final play, the Mustangs are one of 12 teams in contention for the national title.
Sports betting odds aren’t calling for a long run for the underdog for the Mustangs. SMU is the 8½-point underdog at Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Dec. 21.
The college football futures odds have SMU tied for eighth at +4000 in the odds of winning the national title. This is the closest the Mustangs have been to winning a national championship in football since the team emerged out of the NCAA’s “Death Penalty” due to persistent rules violations in the 1980s.
Keep on reading to see how SMU can make a run at the national title.
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4 Reasons Why SMU Can Win National Title
1. Mustangs Fare Well as an Underdog
SMU was listed by the BetUS sportsbook as an underdog in two of its first six games of the season. The Mustangs won an action-packed game against TCU 66-42 and topped Louisville 34-27 two weeks later. The idea of being an underdog shouldn’t be that big of a deal for this SMU team.
One cause for concern could be that Penn State is 11-0 during the 2024 season when favored by the NCAA football spread. Three of those ended as one-score games. If Minnesota, an underachieving USC team and Bowling Green can hang around against the Nittany Lions, why can’t the Mustangs do the same?
2. More Than One Way to Win
SMU joins Oregon as the only team in the College Football Playoffs with a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher.
Per SMU vs Penn State betting tips, Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings had 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions over his last five games. He likes to spread the ball around with seven players having anywhere from 22 to 38 catches.
Unfortunately, one of them is tight end RJ Maryland, who was injured in the middle of the season. It can be hard for opposing defensive coordinators to zero in on which pass catcher to focus on when Jennings goes back to pass.
Based on positive EPA rate versus pressure, SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been the most consistent QB versus pressure among this year’s playoff participants.
On the flip side, Georgia’s offense has been derailed by pressure this season. pic.twitter.com/FGmYU9LXrf
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) December 10, 2024
Miami transfer Brashard Smith has 1,270 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns to go with 35 receptions. He is the first 1,000-yard rusher for the Mustangs since Xavier Jones in 2019 and has been a popular option in player prop picks. His arrival has given the Mustangs some much-needed balance.
3. Defense Comes Up Big for Mustangs
It will be strength versus strength when SMU opens up with Penn State in the College Football Playoffs. The Nittany Lions have a pair of running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen who can take over a game. SMU counters with the best defense against the run in the ACC. The Mustangs surrender just 93.4 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry.
When looking at college football stats, SMU is also first in the ACC in scoring defense and is second in third-down defense and red-zone defense. The Mustangs will look to make Penn State string together time-consuming drives.
Fifteen of the top 16 tacklers for SMU are either juniors or seniors. With 40 sacks and 95 tackles for loss, the SMU defense makes plenty of plays behind the line of scrimmage and that could put the opposing teams in third-and-long situations.
4. Not the Toughest Bracket
The feeling was that Penn State got the easier bracket than top-seeded Oregon after losing to the Ducks in the Big Ten title game. If that logic holds, a win by SMU in the first round could open things up for head coach Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs.
Yet another honor for the head ball coach.
Coach Lashlee has been named a finalist for the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year Award!#PonyUp pic.twitter.com/lAMIyzUjwp
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) December 10, 2024
The quarterfinal matchup would come against Boise State and star running back Ashton Jeanty. The semifinal showdown may come against a Georgia team that could be without starting quarterback Carson Beck unless Notre Dame or Indiana knock off the SEC champions.It won’t be easy but SMU has a puncher’s chance to hang around and continue its surprising season. Will those who bet online be willing to take chances on the underdog Mustangs?
Questions of the Day
What were SMU’s odds of winning the national championship at the start of the season?
SMU was tied for 29th at +20000 in the odds of winning the national title before the season began.
How has SMU fared in recent postseason games?
SMU lost its last three bowl games. The last two losses came by a total of 10 points.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
