X
Skip to content

Five Best Games of Week 5

Week 5 Betting Odds

The college football season moves into Week 5 with a number of interesting games headed our way. Some have very large point spreads but figure to be very compelling nonetheless. A lot of surprising stories are emerging in college football, for better or worse, and these games involve those particular developments. It will create another highly intriguing weekend of competition as teams try to find the right identities and, in some cases, escape the bad patterns they began to create in the first month of the season.

Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers

Odds: Wisconsin -2

games-of-the-week-alabama-oct-02-2021
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

The Michigan Wolverines are 4-0, but they are in roughly the same position as the Wisconsin Badgers. The main difference is that Wisconsin has lost one conference game and Michigan has not. These teams really aren’t that different despite the fact that Michigan is unbeaten and Wisconsin is 1-2. Both teams are knitted together by a simple common reality: They both have subpar quarterback play. Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara isn’t quite as bad as Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz, but he hasn’t faced the caliber of competition as Mertz.

Michigan hasn’t played a road game yet, starting with three non-conference home games followed by a home Big Ten opener against Rutgers. Michigan barely beat Rutgers, needing a fourth-quarter stop in the red zone to hold off the Scarlet Knights 20-13. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on its first two drives and didn’t find the end zone the rest of the game. What does that tell you about the Wolverines and their offense? It means that as soon as they go off-script, the unit and McNamara have a hard time making adjustments.

Michigan was not significantly tested in its first three games, trampling Western Michigan, Washington and Northern Illinois. The fact that Rutgers very nearly took Michigan into overtime in Ann Arbor shows that Michigan’s 4-0 record is deceptive.

It’s obvious that Wisconsin is in a very bad place. Mertz has been terrible. He threw two pick-sixes in the loss to Notre Dame last weekend. However, McNamara and Michigan really don’t seem noticeably better. Given that Michigan finally plays a road game after a full month of playing at home, the environment in Madison could ambush the Wolverines. This is anybody’s game, which is why it is so interesting.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs

Odds: Georgia -17½

The Arkansas Razorbacks are massive underdogs to Georgia despite being ranked in the top 10 at No. 8. This is because Georgia has an established national reputation and Arkansas does not. This is because Georgia beat Clemson and Arkansas has a pair of wins over two teams — Texas and Texas A&M — that are wildly overrated and a lot of people can plainly see that. Georgia is a huge favorite because it just blew out Vanderbilt after crushing South Carolina. Yet, Arkansas does seem to be getting less respect than it should.

The Razorbacks didn’t just beat Texas. They obliterated the Longhorns 40-21 in Week 2. Coach Sam Pittman has transformed the mentality and the precision of his players, especially his offensive and defensive linemen. He isn’t winning primarily with transfers. He is winning by taking the players he inherited from previous Arkansas head coach Chad Morris and working with their skill sets instead of using schemes that don’t fit them.

Arkansas is unlikely to win so don’t take it with your college football picks, but the Razorbacks come across as the kind of team that is unlikely to get blown out or humiliated. We will see if the Hogs can keep this game close.

Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide

Odds: Alabama -14½

This is part of a trend in college football. You are seeing a lot of teams being favored by 15 or more points and few of them are covering. Oklahoma didn’t cover as a 22-point favorite or as a 16½-point favorite the past few weeks. Alabama didn’t cover as a 15½-point favorite over Florida. Michigan didn’t cover as a 20½-point favorite over Rutgers. USC lost outright as a 17-point favorite against Stanford. Large favorites are frequently failing to cover the number. Here we have an Alabama team favored by more than two touchdowns over an Ole Miss team that scored 61 points in its most recent game against Tulane and has regularly put up huge offensive numbers.

Last year’s Alabama-Ole Miss game ended with the Tide winning 63-48. Alabama might have won by 15, but the game did not feel nearly as comfortable as the scoreboard suggested. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is a frontline candidate for the Heisman Trophy. If he plays like a Heisman candidate, Ole Miss will score a massive amount of points and it’s hard to see how Alabama covers the large spread if Corral plays well. If you betonline, take the points.

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

Odds: Oregon -8

The Stanford Cardinal has been a thorn in the side of the Oregon Ducks over the past 15 years, but they were also a thorn in the side of the UCLA Bruins in recent years and that didn’t matter much last weekend. Stanford had won 11 of 12 against UCLA, but the Bruins roared past the Cardinal 35-24. Stanford has ruined perfect seasons and national championship dreams for Oregon multiple times since the start of the 2009 season. The Cardinal have historically been a tough problem for the Ducks, but given Stanford’s collection of injuries and Oregon’s improved coaching under Mario Cristobal, it’s going to be very tough for the Cardinal to pull the upset here.

Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins

Odds: UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins just won at Stanford. They are the early favorite to win the Pac-12 South, given that USC already has two conference losses and neither Utah nor Arizona State look all that sharp. This is a huge game for Pac-12 South positioning. There are tougher battles ahead, so no one wants to lose that first really tough conference game. Losing here means that the margin for error is slim to none the rest of the way.

Did you find this article interesting?

Comments (0)