College Football Betting: Picture of 12-Team Playoff in 2023
With Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, and Ohio State being left out of the College Football Playoff field, the question is whether the college football power brokers waited a year too long to move to the 12-team playoff.
The college football odds have Michigan listed as the one-point favorite against Alabama in the national semifinal being played at the Rose Bowl. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl. Both games will be played on Jan. 1 with the national championship game featuring the semifinal winners on Jan. 8.
When looking at the college football futures odds, Michigan (+180) and Alabama (+190) have the best odds of winning the national championship followed by Texas (+270) and Washington (+700).
A Look At the Field
Using the format when one of the teams from the Group of Five conferences gets into the 12-team field, just the top 11 teams in the College Football Rankings would be selected.
Take a look at the full and final #CFBPlayoff selection committee rankings upon completion of the 2023 college football regular season!
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 3, 2023
Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama would receive byes into the quarterfinals as those teams are viewed as the best college football teams this season. Here’s a look at how things would look under the 12-team format.
The good news is that no Power-5 conference champions are left out of the playoffs under this format.
Liberty vs Florida State
- Team Records: Liberty 13-0 (8-0 in Conference USA); Florida State (13-0, 8-0 in the ACC)
- Records Against the Spread: Liberty 9-4; Florida State 8-5
- Conference Championship Result: Liberty defeated New Mexico State 49-35 to win the Conference USA title. Florida State beat Louisville 16-6 in the ACC Championship Game.
- Previous CFP Results: Liberty (no previous appearances); Florida State 0-1 (lost in 2014 semifinals).
Liberty edged American Athletic Conference champion Southern Methodist to take the Group of Five slot in the New Year’s Six bowls so following that logic, the Conference USA champions would land one of the 12 spots.
Undefeated Florida State would not only get a chance to be a part of a CFP field after being left out under the four-team format but the debate of whether FSU or Alabama was the more deserving team could be settled on the field.
Ole Miss vs Georgia
- Team Records: Ole Miss 10-2 (6-2 in the SEC); Georgia 12-1 (8-0 in the SEC)
- Records Against the Spread: Ole Miss 6-4-2; Georgia 4-8-1
- Conference Championship Result: Ole Miss did not qualify; Georgia lost 27-24 to Alabama in the SEC title game.
- Previous CFP Results: Ole Miss (no previous appearances); Georgia 5-1 (won the 2021 and 2022 national titles).
The hope is that matchups against conference foes can be avoided in the first round. That would be easy to navigate by flipping No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss.
However, going by the rankings, there would be a rematch of a game won by Georgia 52-17.
Expect a closer game in the rematch, but it is hard to imagine Ole Miss beating the Bulldogs as the two-time defending national champions advance to meet Texas.
Penn State vs Ohio State
- Team Records: Penn State 10-2 (7-0 in the Big Ten); Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 in the Big Ten)
- Records Against the Spread: Penn State 9-3; Ohio State 7-4-1
- Conference Championship Result: Penn State and Ohio State did not reach the Big Ten title game.
- Previous CFP Results: Penn State (no previous appearances); Ohio State 3-4 (Won 2014 championship)
Another conference showdown with Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Penn State meeting again.
Would this be the game when Penn State would shake the label of the “not ready for prime time” team?
Penn State put up a pretty good fight before falling to Ohio State 20-12 on the road and to Michigan 24-15 at home.
This is the third season in a row that Penn State was swept by its top conference rivals.
The winner would advance to meet Washington and it would be a surprise to see either Ohio State or Penn State favored by the college football odds in that matchup.
Missouri vs Oregon
- Team Records: Missouri 10-2 (6-2 in the SEC); Oregon (11-2, 8-1 in the Pac-12)
- Records Against the Spread: Missouri 8-4; Oregon 9-3-1
- Conference Championship Result: Missouri did not qualify; Oregon lost to Washington 34-31 in the Pac-12 final
- Previous CFP Results: Missouri (no previous appearances); Oregon 1-1 (lost in 2014 championship game)
Few people expected Missouri to be a top-10 team this season as 45 teams were listed by the college football betting lines with better odds of winning the national title.
Oregon failed to deliver as the two-score favorite versus undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.
The Ducks would likely be favored according to our sportsbook in this matchup with the winner drawing Michigan in the quarterfinals.
Questions Of The Day
college football teams
Michigan is priced at +180 and Alabama comes in at +190 in the odds of winning the national title.
What are the potential dark horse candidates to win the College Football Playoff this year?
Texas is priced at +270 and Washington has +700 to win the national title.
