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College Football Big 12 Conference Odds Review

Oklahoma, Iowa State Top Teams in Conference

College football will soon be upon us and it’s never too early to look at the conference and division odds posted at the sportsbook.

This time, we analyze what’s happening in the Big 12 Conference.

DeMarvion Overshown and D'Shawn Jamison of the Texas Longhorns react after a turnover against the Colorado Buffaloes
Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP

Baylor Bears

Conference Odds: +4000

Baylor and first-year head coach Dave Aranda finished 2-7 and ninth in the Big 12 in 2020. Baylor has a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Grimes but loses quarterback Charlie Brewer, who transferred to Utah. Improvement is probable but a Big 12 title is not.

Iowa State Cyclones

Conference Odds: +250

Iowa State was one of the surprise teams of 2020. The Cyclones got off to a sluggish start and dropped their opener to UL Lafayette. Then, Iowa State put together an 8-1 record in the Big 12, which was the best regular-season mark in the conference.

The Cyclones beat Oklahoma early in the season but fell to the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. Soon after, Iowa State picked up its first-ever New Year’s Six bowl win by defeating Oregon 34-17 in the Fiesta Bowl.

Expectations are rightfully high as Iowa State returns 19 starters and has multiple offensive studs. Running back Breece Hall was Iowa State’s first-ever unanimous All-American in 2020 and totaled 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns. QB Brock Purdy should be one of the best signal callers in college football and has a lot of talent around him.

On defense, Iowa State has arguably the best linebacker in college football in Mike Rose. He totaled five interceptions and led the Big 12 in tackles last season. All around, the Cyclones’ defense projects to be excellent. They are one of my favorite dark-horse college football picks to win the national championship. As Oklahoma’s biggest competition in the Big 12, I like Iowa State at these odds.

Kansas Jayhawks

Conference Odds: +15000

Kansas has nine wins since 2015 and a first-year head coach, Lance Leipold. So, this should probably be more like a 1,000-to-1 bet than a 150-to-1. Leipold has quite the rebuilding job on his hands but has done it before with Buffalo. Even a couple Big 12 wins would be progress.

Kansas State Wildcats

Conference Odds: +3300

Kansas State pulled off a shocking upset win vs No. 6 Oklahoma last season, scoring 24 unanswered points in a come-from-behind 38-35 win. That victory ignited a four game winning streak. Due to its inconsistency on full display, Kansas State dropped five straight games to finish the season 4-5.

Expect the Wildcats to improve after a COVID-19 riddled season, especially since QB Skylar Thompson is returning from injury. Kansas State could finish in the top half of the Big 12, but a conference title seems unlikely.

Oklahoma Sooners

Conference Odds: -220

In some of the biggest college football news of the year, Texas and Oklahoma announced their plans to join the SEC. In the meantime, the Sooners could continue to dominate the Big 12 and compete for national championships. The Sooners have won conference titles in coach Lincoln Riley’s first four seasons and six straight overall.

Oklahoma always has an explosive offense and this season shouldn’t be any different. Sophomore QB Spencer Rattler had an excellent freshman season and will continue to improve. The Sooners lost RB Rhamondre Stevenson to the NFL but have capable backs in Kennedy Brooks and Tennessee transfer Eric Gray.

The Sooners have an all-around elite team, including the special teams unit. The defense has steadily improved for two consecutive years under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Grinch returns seven starters, including second team All-American linebacker Nik Bonitto, who led the team in sacks last year.

This has been one of the most active college football lines. In July, the line was priced at -150 and has moved significantly to -220. Bettors understandably have a lot of confidence in Oklahoma after six straight Big 12 Championships and this is still not necessarily a bad bet at 68.8 percent implied probability.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Conference Odds: +1000

Oklahoma State finished 8-3 last season and should be competitive once again in the Big 12. However, there are a lot of key pieces to replace. Running back Chuba Hubbard is with the Carolina Panthers and offensive tackle Tevin Jenkins was drafted by the Chicago Bears. QB Spencer Sanders also loses his top three targets, which could spell trouble for the offense.

Oklahoma State allowed just 23.5 points per game in 2020 and this has the makings of a very good defense once again. Leading tackler Malcolm Rodriguez returns at linebacker and the safeties are excellent.

The Big 12 is an incredibly tough conference, though, and Oklahoma State’s odds appear to accurately reflect its chances to win the title. There’s upside here but a top-four finish or so would be more likely.

TCU Horned Frogs

Conference Odds: +1400

At 6-4, TCU finished in the top half of the Big 12 in 2020. The Horned Frogs got off to a slow start at 1-3 but won five of their last six games. Head coach Gary Patterson, now in his 21st season, has a great group that is capable of making some noise in the Big 12.

TCU has one of the most experienced teams in the conference and a dynamic QB in Max Duggan. Duggan led TCU in both passing and rushing yards last season. The defense was comfortably above average and held opponents to 24.2 points per game.

However, TCU gets Iowa State and Oklahoma on the road, which hurts its chances to finish top-two in the conference immeasurably. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have gone just 18-17 over the past three seasons, which makes it hard to recommend them as a real contender in the Big 12.

Texas Longhorns

Conference Odds: +400

With new head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas is hoping for a return to glory after a bevy of disappointing seasons, at least by its lofty standards. Sarkisian won the Broyles Award as the nation’s top assistant in 2020 in Alabama’s championship-winning season.

The talent is there on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns went 7-3 and averaged 42.7 points per game in 2020, the latter of which was the fifth most in the nation and a Big 12 best. Running back Bijan Robinson is primed for a big year while the QB position is still up for grabs. Texas lost defensive end Joseph Ossai but brought in a couple of graduate transfers and returned much of its secondary.

Texas last won a conference title in 2009 and I think it could take a season or two of getting acclimated for Sarkisian’s Longhorns to pull it off. These college football odds give the Longhorns an implied 20 percent chance of winning the Big 12 title. Texas isn’t a bad bet but I doubt the Longhorns will be consistent enough to both make the title game and win it.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Conference Odds: +5000

Texas Tech has the second-longest odds to win the Big 12 and that makes sense after a 4-6 2020 record and the amount of turnover. Tech QB Alan Bowman transferred and coach Matt Wells brought in a new offensive coordinator. A bowl game shouldn’t be out of reach but a conference title may very well be.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Conference Odds: +2500

West Virginia finished 6-4 in 2020, including 5-0 at home. Running back Leddie Brown was a 1,000-yard rusher and returns alongside QB Jarret Doege.

A lot of West Virginia’s success is predicated on better consistency from Doege and the receiving corps. The Mountaineers lost a few key defenders but had the second-best scoring defense in the Big 12 in 2020.

Don’t let the odds fool you, this is a solid football team. Based on West Virginia’s 2020 scores and odds to win the conference in 2021, the Mountaineers are my favorite Big 12 dark-horse bet.

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