As Saturday’s round of college football action fast approaches, we examine the market and look for games that have experienced noteworthy line movement. In this column, we highlight three games that have seen movement on the CFB odds board that’s worth taking stock of.
Line Moves on the College Football Odds Board
Oklahoma at Baylor
Opening Line: Oklahoma -6
Current Line: Oklahoma -5½
Since Caleb Williams replaced Spencer Rattler, the buzz around the Oklahoma Sooners’ quarterback has skyrocketed. And Williams’ performance has seen his odds for the Heisman Trophy cut from +4000 to +750 in recent weeks, putting him inside the Top 5 to win the coveted honour.
In spite of this fascination with Williams, the line movement on the college football odds board for this game stands in stark contrast. Books opened with Oklahoma tipped as the 6-point road favorite. Since open doors, the point spread has dropped down to Oklahoma -5 ½ — a number that is just below the key number of 6 and marks a significant move.
As far as the point spread goes, the Sooners below a touchdown offer great value. Baylor isn’t going to be a cakewalk, but whether the Bears can keep pace with Oklahoma and stay within a score is debatable, especially considering their recent setback which put them out of conference contention. That could be a difficult pill to swallow and Oklahoma might just capitalise in a big way.
Purdue at Ohio State
Opening Line: Ohio State -19
Current Line: Ohio State -21
Lookahead Las Vegas odds and lines projected this Big Ten showdown at Ohio State -19 before Week 10, but at the close of the weekend, the line reopened at Ohio State -20. Since open doors, the line has moved up to Ohio State -21, where it appears to have settled.
Purdue is coming off a gauntlet-throwing win over the previously undefeated Michigan State. The Boilermakers, closing as the 2.5-point underdogs, steamrolled the Spartans 40-29. It marked their second signature win this season after upending Iowa as the 11-point underdogs.
As things currently stand, the public is lapping up Purdue as the 21-point underdogs. While betting on back-to-back upsets carries some volume of risk, a few factors could lend themselves towards that end.
One of which is Buckeyes’ quarterback CJ Stroud, who has had some erratic moments. For the most part, Stroud is enjoying a solid season, and he emerges as the second-best quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy after Alabama’s Bryce Young. However, with Purdue’s stout defense, Stroud might not be as dominant as he’s been against lesser defenses.
Michigan at Penn State
Opening Line: Penn State -1
Current Line: Michigan -1½
Of all the games at the betting online exchange, the clash between Michigan and Penn State has seen quite significant movement with Michigan moving from underdog to favorite terrain.
Markets opened with the Wolverines as the +1 underdogs to Penn State for this Week 11 Big Ten showdown, but the line was on the move soon afterwards as the public pounded Michigan. Approximately 75 percent of early betting has gone towards Michigan, prompting the line to move as high as Michigan -1½.
To all intents and purposes, this is a tough game to call. Michigan at +1 is long gone, but the line may yet move back down to 1 or a pick’em if there’s significant buyback action just before kickoff. Depending on which way you are slicing this game for college football picks, it might be best to wait and see where this line settles just before kickoff.
