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College Football Odds: Under for Oklahoma Win Total Top Pick
- Oklahoma will be imminently affected by the switch to the SEC, having a very tough conference schedule.
- Oklahoma’s key to the season will be whether sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold can live up to the hype.
- There was very little turnover on defense but the offense was shaken up, which could be a concern when betting on Oklahoma, making the under in win totals likely.
It will be a whole new world for Oklahoma when it enters the SEC in 2024, and there will be an immediate impact. After being the top dog in the Big 12 and winning a conference-high 14 championships, college football predictions show that things might change for the Sooners in the SEC.
Switching conferences might not have come at a worse time for the Sooners, who have not won a Big 12 championship since 2020 despite having double-digit wins in two of the last three seasons. On top of that, Oklahoma was not gifted with the most manageable schedule when facing SEC opponents, being thrown straight into the fire.
How to Bet on Oklahoma’s Regular Season Wins Total in 2024
The biggest thing jeopardizing Oklahoma’s season is something out of its control: the schedule. Before we get to how hard the Sooners’ schedule is and why it has a massive effect on the team’s college football odds, we should first talk about how good this roster could be.
If Oklahoma were still in the Big 12, it would have a big chance of winning the conference or at least sneaking into the college football playoffs, which went from four to 12 teams this season. Last season, the Sooners did go 10-2 before a bowl game loss, falling to Kansas and Oklahoma State in back-to-back games. Before that, Oklahoma was 7-0 and, looking like the best team in the Big 12, but it failed to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.
In theory, the Sooners’ improved defense was a big reason for their success last season. That is also why they can hang around in the SEC, with just about all their key contributors staying on the team.
However, that is in theory because Oklahoma’s defense was not exactly remarkable by the numbers in 2023 and can be exposed by SEC opponents. The Sooners allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the Big 12 (22.3), which is good, but ranked sixth in yards allowed (390.3). The secondary was especially concerning, giving up the fourth-most yards through the air in the Big 12 (242.2).
The offense is maybe where college football betting starts to get back on Oklahoma’s good side. However, there are still some concerns on that side of the ball. The Sooners’ entire starting offensive line has been replaced, along with star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon.
That opens the door for five-star recruit Jackson Arnold, who started Oklahoma’s loss in the Alamo Bowl to Arizona. Arnold did throw for 361 yards and two touchdowns in that game, but he also had three interceptions and a fumble.
The Oklahoma Sooners have 4 signees representing at the Under Armour All-American Game:
-David Stone (DL)
-Davon Mitchell (TE)
-Eugene Brooks (OL)
-Daniel Akinkunmi (OL)#BoomerSoonerhttps://t.co/u6IeRXjrB4 pic.twitter.com/p8VBSsmH1a— Hayes Fawcett (@Hayesfawcett3) December 30, 2023
On the more positive side, Arnold could have one of the best-receiving corps in the SEC supporting him. Outside of the No.1 option at wide receiver, everyone else is still on the team, plus Oklahoma made some additions through the transfer portal. That should be enough to help Arnold get acclimated to his starting role.
Jackson Arnold finds Nic Anderson for a 10 Yard TD
Going to see a lot of this duo in 2024🗣️
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 29, 2023
Oklahoma 2024 Schedule Breakdown: Odds Buster?
What truly concerns college football lines about Oklahoma is its schedule. While the Sooners luck out and don’t have to face Georgia, the favorites to win the SEC, they also miss out on any other possible easy matchups in the conference.
The two games that Oklahoma has the best chance of winning against SEC opponents are on the road against Auburn and hosting South Carolina. The rest of the Sooners’ schedule is brutal. To kick off SEC play, they host Tennessee, but four of their last five games are against Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU. Not to mention former Big 12 rival Texas, which has the second-best odds of winning the SEC.
Again, the one positive note is that in non-conference play, Oklahoma should be able to pick up four wins against Temple, Houston, Tulane and Maine. Those first three games, which all occur before facing Tennessee, should be enough to prepare Oklahoma for a gauntlet of SEC games, but if it isn’t, this will be a tough season.
Oklahoma 2024 Win Total Predictions: Under 7.5
On paper, this Oklahoma team does look good. While there are some questions on the defensive side, they can be answered by consistency and a lack of turnover on the depth chart. Despite the overhauled offensive line and the new starting quarterback, there is offensive talent on the roster, especially at the skilled positions.
However, with this schedule and this being the Sooners’ first season in the SEC, it is hard to imagine them hitting the over on their win total line for college football picks. There is a concern that Oklahoma will likely get four easy wins, but after that, there will be very few games where it is favored.
Question Of The Day
Who will be the most crucial player for Oklahoma in the 2024 season?
Oklahoma’s defense should be solid, so it doesn’t make sense to be too concerned about that side of the ball. However, with a new quarterback in sophomore Jackson Arnold, a lot will be placed on his shoulders to carry the offense.
