College Football Prediction: Bet on Penn State to Exceed 2024 Win Total

For the last two seasons, despite having one of the most talented rosters in the nation, Penn State has fallen short because of losses to Ohio State and Michigan. That led to the Nittany Lions missing out on the four-team playoffs, making this 12-team expansion perfect for them. However, they will also have to deal with the Big Ten’s own expansion, adding the top programs from the Pac-12.

Expanded Playoffs Boost Odds for Penn State

In two straight seasons, Penn State looked like one of the top teams in college football betting, but could not get past Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions ended the 2022 season with an 11-2 record, both losses coming against the teams leading the way in the Big Ten. Then, last season, they again lost to the top teams in the Big Ten, finishing 10-3 and losing to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

The best thing to happen for the Nittany Lions is the changes to the playoffs, with more spots giving them a better chance of making it. However, adding the Pac-12 teams could change BetUS college football lines. Penn State still has the third-best odds (+500) to win the Big Ten in 2024, but behind Ohio State and Oregon, just slightly ahead of Michigan.

Still, Penn State has more than enough talent on its roster to compete for the Big Ten championship and, if anything, sneak into a playoff spot. The Nittany Lions’ betting line is set at -150 for them to be one of the 12 playoff teams.

A lot of that high-end talent starts on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, Penn State allowed the nation’s fewest yards per game (223.3) and ranked third in points allowed (11.4). The Nittany Lions did lose some talent, but many of the impact players stayed, especially Abdul Carter, who is projected to have a massive season. The defense also added talent through the transfer portal, which should keep it one of the nation’s best defenses.

However, while the defense should be elite again in 2024, the offense continues to be a thorn in Penn State’s side. By the numbers, the Nittany Lions’ offense did not look bad, averaging the most points in the Big Ten per game (36.2). Still, they struggled against tougher opponents, combining for 27 points against Ohio State and Michigan.

Penn State TE Tyler Warren is an excellent run blocker with a MASSIVE catch radius who could compete for TE1 in 2025 👀

Warren is 6’6” 260lbs and will be Drew Allar’s primary security blanket with the exit of Theo Johnson. pic.twitter.com/e2cgcFxoKv

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) May 10, 2024

On top of that, the Nittany Lions’ top two receivers have left in the transfer portal, which isn’t saying much, given they didn’t have the best production. After a solid season, Drew Allar is still the starting quarterback, throwing 2,631 yards, 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 2023.

Penn State got some wide receiver help through the transfer portal, but tight end Tyler Warren is the team’s top returning receiving threat. Running the ball will be crucial behind Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who combined for 1,654 yards last season.

Penn State 2024 Schedule Breakdown

Of the top four teams in the Big Ten, according to college football odds, to win the conference, Penn State only has to face Ohio State. That does not mean the Nittany Lions have an easy schedule, but avoiding Michigan and newcomer Oregon is a plus.

After what should be a 5-0 start, Penn State has its first biggest test of the season, going on the road against USC. If the Nittany Lions win that game, they could have a good chance of meeting their preseason expectations.

There are still more challenging games ahead, like on the road against Wisconsin, which is the game after facing USC, but Penn State does get a week off between games. Those two games start the Nittany Lions’ toughest stretch, hosting Ohio State and Washington after facing Wisconsin.

Penn State 2024 Win Total Prediction: Over 10.5

Even with all the expectations on Penn State, it seems in line for a big season. It is perfect timing for the expanding playoff bracket and the Big Ten schedule format change. The Nittany Lions could not make a playoff push because they could not beat the top teams in the Big Ten.

Well, now, they are not even facing two of the legitimate Big Ten championship contenders, and with two losses, the playoffs are still in play. That is why Penn State is a great option for hitting the over on its win totals for college football picks.

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