College football predictions: No. 18 Baylor Bears

What a turnaround for Baylor in 2021 as the Bears went from a 2-7 team during the 2020 season to winning 12 games including the Big 12 title.

Baylor was 4-1 in one-score games during its run to the conference title. With the loss of leading rusher Abram Smith, starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon, top receiver Tyquan Thornton as well as the top tackler Terrel Bernard and most of the secondary, will the Bears be able to pull out as many close games during the upcoming season?

Baylor was picked to win the conference title in the Big 12 preseason poll so there are plenty of believers out there despite some major personnel losses.

With five players transferring out and three coming in, the Bears are relying on their recruiting classes to fill in the holes left by the departing players.

Baylor (+550) is tied for third with Oklahoma State in the odds to win the Big 12 title according to the college football picks. The odds moved from +700 since late May.

Baylor (+8000) is tied for 14th in the odds to win the national championship according to the sportsbook.

Baylor Bears

2021 record: 12-2
2021 conference record: 7-2
Head coach: Dave Aranda
Odds to win conference title: +550

There are some key departures that will need to be addressed.

Running back Abram Smith is off to the NFL after rushing for 1,601 yards and 12 touchdowns. Trestan Ebner has also moved on, leaving Taye McWilliams, who averaged 10.7 yards on his 17 carries last season, and Craig Williams, who was limited to two games in 2021 but had 26 carries during the 2020 season, as the top options to become the lead back in 2022.

Starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon is now at South Florida after passing for 2,194 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions a season ago. He was also the team’s third-leading rusher with 323 yards.

Blake Shapen completed 72% of his passes as a freshman for 596 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions. Most of that work came in a three-game stretch against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. He was 23 of 28 for 180 yards with three touchdown passes against Oklahoma State as Baylor won the Big 12 title.

Top receiver Tyquan Thornton (62 catches, 942 yards, 10 touchdowns) is now with the New England Patriots. R.J Sneed and Drew Estrada are also gone. That trio combined for 138 catches and 1,882 yards. Tight ends Ben Sims (a first-team preseason all-conference pick) and Drake Dabney are back after eight of their 41 receptions during the 2021 season resulted in touchdowns. Josh Fleeks (seven catches, 89 yards) is a receiver to keep an eye on.

The offensive line returns four starters. Jacob Gall and Connor Galvin earned preseason first team All Big-12 honors. Khalil Keith and Grant Miller are also back. That group will help Baylor overcome the loss of so many key skill position players.

Three members of the secondary (safeties Jalen Pitre and J.T. Woods as well as cornerback Kalon Barnes) were selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. Leading tackler Terrel Bernard is also gone after being taken by Buffalo in the third round.

Second-leading tackler Dillon Doyle (90 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) and defensive lineman Siaki Ika (six tackles for loss, four sacks) lead the list of returnees on defense.

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Linebackers Matt Jones (52 tackles) and Garmon Randolph as defensive lineman T.J. Franklin are other returning players that the defense will be built around.

Former Tulsa defensive lineman Jaxon Player (50 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, and five sacks) is a Waco native who is coming home. Linebacker Josh White has transferred in from LSU.

Isaac Power (44.98 yards per punt) and Isaiah Hankins (14 for 20 on field goals as a freshman) are back to lead the special teams as is Noah Rauschenberg, who had 72 touchbacks on 81 kickoffs. The loss of Ebner will leave Baylor in need of players to return kickoffs and punts.

Outlook

Baylor has finished in the top five among Big 12 recruiting classes in the last two years. Without many unexpected departures, those top recruits brought in over the last two seasons will need to step in and replace some very important contributors.

A Week 2 game against Brigham Young could be interesting as a relatively inexperienced Baylor secondary will be tested by BYU quarterback Jaren Hall who is showing up as a potential top 10 pick in 2023 NFL mock drafts.

Baylor faces both Oklahoma and Texas on the road but those games come late in the season so there will be time for the younger players to get comfortable before those huge tests.

Baylor has a projected regular-season win total of 7½, according to the college football predictions, with the odds at -155 for the Bears to go over that total and +125 to finish under.

Something for those who bet online to ponder, Baylor not only piled up the wins on the field during the Bears’ remarkable 2021 season, but the Bears were also 10-4 against the spread. Each of Baylor’s last five games went under the total thanks in large part to a defense that finished second in the Big 12 in scoring defense. It didn’t hurt that Baylor finished tied for seventh nationally with 27 forced turnovers.