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College Football Predictions: No. 29 Arkansas Razorbacks

· Jul 19 - 5 minutes read

Arkansas was one of the better stories to come out of the Southeastern Conference in 2021. The Razorbacks went from a 3-7 team in 2020 to winning nine games last season. In 2019, Arkansas lost its last nine games. Last season’s win total could have been even higher if not a one-point loss to Ole Miss and a 42-35 defeat at Alabama.

Dynamic quarterback KJ Jefferson returns. While he does lose many of the skill players who helped him thrive a season ago, the Razorbacks do return four starting offensive linemen.

Wesley Hitt / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

Arkansas (+6000) is currently eighth in the odds to win the SEC title according to the college football picks. The Razorbacks are tied for third in the odds to win the SEC West Division.

Arkansas (+12500) is tied for 21st in the odds to win the national championship according to the sportsbook.

Arkansas Razorbacks

2021 record: 9-4
2021 conference record: 4-4
Head coach: Sam Pittman
Odds to win conference title: +6000

KJ Jefferson is a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. However, he can not do it alone. The Razorbacks lost two of the three games when Jefferson had the most yards of total offense. He is tied for 18th in the current odds to win the Heisman Trophy.

In a four-game stretch against Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama and Missouri late in the season, Jefferson was 74 of 97 for 921 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions to go with 135 rushing yards. In a conference featuring the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, it can be easy to overlook some of the other talented quarterbacks in the SEC. It is pretty hard for a talent like Jefferson to fly under the radar.

He will be aided by the return of starting offensive linemen Beaux Limmer, Brady Latham, Dalton Wagner and Ricky Stromberg.

Arkansas lost its top two receivers, including NFL first-round pick Treylon Burks (66 catches, 1104 yards), but do return receivers Warren Thompson (19 catches, 304 yards) and Ketron Jackson as well as tight end Trey Knox (20 catches, 141 yards). Adding former Oklahoma receiver Jadon Haselwood (39 catches, 399 yards, six touchdowns) as well as former Toledo receiver Matt Landers, who averaged 25.7 yards on his 20 receptions last season, will help.

The best thing that could happen for the Arkansas defense is for one of the running backs to lead the team in rushing. Jefferson was the leader with 664 yards in 2021.

Second-leading rusher Trelon Smith transferred to Texas San Antonio. However, Raheim Sanders (114 carries, 578 yards, five touchdowns) had almost identical numbers as Smith. Dominique Johnson led all the Arkansas backs with an average of 5.9 yards per carry while A.J. Green also returns at running back.

Leading tackler Bumper Pool returns but the Razorbacks do lose four of the top five tacklers. Myles Slusher, Jalen Catalon and Simeon Blair are other key returnees on defense. Catalon has earned a reputation as one of the better coverage safeties in the SEC.

Lowest passer rating allowed in zone coverage last season among SEC Safeties

🔒 Jalen Catalon: 50.0
🔒 DeMarcco Hellams: 51.0
🔒 Jordan Battle: 53.8 pic.twitter.com/ZdYQFgIAju

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 7, 2022

Hayden Henry, Grant Morgan and sack leader Tre Williams are among the key players gone from defense while defensive tackle John Ridgeway and defensive back Montaric Brown were selected on the third day of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Arkansas hit the transfer portal in an attempt to improve the defense.

Linebacker Drew Sanders comes in from Alabama, cornerback Dwight McGlothern (32 tackles, five pass breakups) and defensive end Landon Jackson transferred in from LSU, safety Latavious Brini had 38 tackles and eight pass breakups for national champion Georgia while defensive end Jordan Domineck had 38 tackles and 3.5 sacks a season ago at Georgia Tech.

The secondary will be hurt after Greg Brooks and Joe Fucha transferred to LSU after they combined for 122 tackles in 2021. Most of the other nine defensive players to transfer out played sparingly, if at all, a season ago.

Kicker Cam Little, who was 20 for 24 on field goals as a freshman, and punter Reid Bauer will also be coming back.

2022 Arkansas Outlook

Arkansas made tremendous progress during the 2021 season. It is easy to wonder how the season would have been viewed if the Razorbacks pulled off upsets of Alabama and Ole Miss. Now comes the task of building on that season.

There were significant departures that included more than 20 players transferring out of the program. Jefferson’s presence will make Arkansas a team to keep an eye on when they have the ball.

Arkansas was sixth in scoring defense and seventh in total defense last season. If they can approach those numbers again, this could be another impressive season.

Not having Alabama and Georgia on the schedule certainly helps. The Razorbacks don’t play a true road game until Week 6 against Mississippi State, and the bye week is well placed between October road games against BYU and Auburn. The season opener against Cincinnati should be interesting. Something to consider for those who bet online: Arkansas is currently a seven-point favorite against Cincinnati.

The expected regular-season win total is at 7½ for Arkansas, with the odds at -130 for the Razorbacks going under according to the NCAAF odds. The odds to win the SEC championship have dropped from +4000 to +6000 in the last month.