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College Football Wins – MAC East

When assessing the Mid-American Conference football season for 2021, one has to remember that the league didn’t begin playing football last season until the first week of November due to COVID-19 restrictions. Teams played slightly more than half a season, so they didn’t get the full-length season like some of the power conferences.

Evaluating MAC teams could therefore be tricky since they weren’t tested to the extent they normally would be in a 12-game season. Keep that point in mind as you go over the projected win totals for 2021.

Wisconsin Badgers runs for yards during a game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Camp Randall Stadium
Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

Buffalo

Expected wins: 7½ [Over Ev, Under -130]

This will be a fascinating year for Buffalo. Lance Leipold, who led the team to multiple bowl games and a division championship last year, took the head coaching job at the University of Kansas. Leipold was viewed as one of the brightest minds in college football, so Buffalo faces a new season marked by uncertainty.

The Bulls hired Maurice Linguist as their new head coach. They hope he can pick up where Leipold left off. The encouraging part of the equation for Buffalo is that Leipold left the cupboard stocked. The Bulls are returning a lot of talent from last year’s team, which won its division and reached the MAC Championship Game before losing to Ball State.

Buffalo rebounded from that one loss to win the Camellia Bowl over Marshall and finish the season 6-1. If you were to make a guess about the MAC this season, Buffalo would be the odds-on favorite. It showed last year that it could win high-scoring games and defense-dominated games.

Teams with that kind of versatility are worth trusting, since they feature more than just one player or one strength – they can win in different kinds of ways.

Games against Nebraska and Coastal Carolina are likely losses as they’ll be underdogs on the college football odds, but Buffalo should be favored in nearly every other game. As long as Buffalo loses just one non-Nebraska and non-Coastal Carolina game, it will still go over the total. That’s a good bet to make this year.

Ohio

Expected wins: 6½ [Over -135, Under +105]

Ohio will have a new head coach for the first time since 2005. Frank Solich, who coached Nebraska to a Big 12 championship and to the BCS National Championship Game before he was fired in the early 2000s, decided to make a home in Athens in the MAC.

He spent the past 16 seasons at Ohio University before retiring this offseason to rest and protect his health. Solich guided the Bobcats to four appearances in the MAC Championship Game. He won five bowl games and appeared in 11 of them, making him the school’s most successful head coach of all time.

Offensive assistant coach Tim Albin replaces Solich as head coach, giving Ohio continuity within its coaching staff. Anyone who has followed MAC football closely will be interested to see how the Bobcats respond to the departure of Solich.

It is obviously notable that Buffalo and Ohio are both going through head coaching transitions and they are picked to finish in the top two spots in the MAC East.

Ohio was just 2-1 last season. We really didn’t get to see the Bobcats test themselves against the entirety of their division or their conference. It was an incomplete season, which has left the players eager to show their stuff this coming year.

Ohio’s big games this year are against Syracuse, Louisiana-Lafayette, Northwestern, Buffalo, Miami-Ohio and Toledo. If Ohio can win three of these six games, it should go over its win total. Given how much Syracuse has cratered as a program, and given the fact that Toledo is not as strong as it once was, Ohio has a decent chance of going over the college football lines here.

Kent State

Expected wins: 5 ½ [Over -110, Under -120]

The Golden Flashes were among a few MAC teams which played fewer than five games last season, finishing 3-1. Coach Sean Lewis might not have coached many games, but he won most of them.

Given that Kent State had been struggling as a program in the years before his arrival, Lewis impressed his bosses enough that they gave him a contract extension.

Kent State, Miami-Ohio and Ohio all played fewer than five games last year and they didn’t play each other, so it is hard to judge how these three MAC East teams stack up against each other.

Kent State plays Texas A&M Iowa, and Maryland in non-conference games. The Golden Flashes are likely to lose those contests, whose purpose is to give the school money (paycheck games) and toughen up the team for conference play.

Within the MAC, Kent State’s key opponents are Buffalo, Miami, Ohio and Western Michigan. If Kent State can go 2-2 in those four games, it should be able to go over its win total. Based on what we have seen of this program under Lewis, it seems more likely than not that the Golden Flashes can reach six wins. Go over with your college football picks.

Miami (Ohio)

Expected wins: 5½ [Over +115, Under -145]

The RedHawks played just three games last season, going 2-1. It’s hard to know what this team is capable of, but the competitive nature of the MAC East – with Buffalo, Ohio and Kent State all projected to finish higher than Miami – makes 2021 a tough uphill battle for the RedHawks. They are part of a muddled middle section in the MAC East.

Miami plays Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army in non-conference games. Those three games are all expected to be losses. Miami will need to find three wins from this group of games if it wants to go over its win total: Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Buffalo, Ohio, Kent State and Central Michigan.

Ball State and Buffalo are extremely tough. Ohio and Central Michigan are moderately tough. Eastern Michigan was 2-4 last year, and Kent State is a beatable opponent. There’s a chance Miami can pull it off, but the MAC is deep enough that Miami might be pushed below its win total.

Akron

Expected wins: 2½ [Over -160, Under -160]

In 2020, Akron fell on hard times. The Zips went 1-5 and were outscored by 145 points in their six games, an average margin of just over 24 points per game. Hardly anything went right for Akron, which made a bowl game in 2017 but has won just five total games over the past three seasons and is trying to hit the reset button as a program.

The diminishment of Akron football has become so complete over the past three years that it is difficult to imagine a quick fix in 2021. This is a rebuilding job that will require a lot of patience.

Akron’s schedule will be difficult for the simple reason that the Zips are a bad team. Games against MAC East favorites Buffalo and Ohio will be extremely tough and are likely to be losses.

The winnable games for Akron can be boiled down to this list: Bryant, Bowling Green, Miami-Ohio and Kent State. Bryant and Bowling Green look like wins, but Miami and Kent State have achieved more in recent years and seem tough enough to deny Akron a victory.

The Zips are staring at a 2-10 season, which would put them under their expected win total. They’ll be a good team to bet against in terms of the weekly scores and odds.

Bowling Green

Expected wins: 1½ [Over -115, Under -115]

Bowling Green had a 2020 season to forget. Coach Scot Loeffler presided over a team which scored just 57 points in five games and was outscored by an average of just under 34 points per game. Bowling Green was regularly shredded.

Its lack of any semblance of offensive consistency left the defense over-exposed and on the field far too often. It was a year in which the Falcons had nothing to threaten their opponents.

Loeffler is still on the job this season, which might be nothing more than an acknowledgment that with pandemic budgets being what they are, it was too expensive to fire him right away. Waiting one more season will make his buyout lower, thereby saving the school money. Loeffler will be coaching for his job. School administrators will need to see a clear indication that the Falcons are ready to bounce back after the misery of 2020.

Bowling Green’s key games come against Akron, Murray State, Miami-Ohio, Kent State and Northern Illinois. If the Falcons can win two of these games, they can eclipse their win total for the coming season. The Murray State game looks like the one game Bowling Green is likely to win.

The Akron game is close to a 50-50 game, but if the Falcons lose that one, it will be a hard and bitter struggle to find a second win on the schedule. The under looks like the better move right now.

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