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College Football Regular-Season Wins: Mountain West Conference: Upper Tier

NCAAF Mountain West Season Analysis

When the online sportsbook posts regular-season win totals for college football teams, you know the season is just around the corner. We dive into the numbers and analyze each team’s chances to excel or disappoint. This time around, it’s the Mountain West Conference’s Upper Tier.

San Diego State Aztecs

Expected wins: 6½ [Over -105, Under -125]

The Wyoming Cowboys take the field for their game against the UNLV Rebels at Allegiant Stadium
Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

After a 4-4 record in 2020, the Aztecs are expected to tread water going by the college football odds. In coach Brady Hoke’s second straight season, the Aztecs will have reinforcements via transfers but have also lost key players on defense.

Hoke returned to coach the Aztecs in 2020 and alternated wins and losses after going 2-0 to start. A year prior, Rocky Long (now the defensive coordinator for New Mexico) guided SDSU to a 10-3 record (5-3 MW) and a dominant win in the New Mexico Bowl. The hope is for 2021 to reach these heights.

Winning around six to seven games puts San Diego State in the middle of the division and the conference. That sounds a bit right as the team gained as much as it’s lost, on paper.

The team’s defense, which has been bread-and-butter for the program, will be significantly weaker in the secondary following the departures of CB Darren Hall and both safeties. But the front line remains stout and help is on the way on offense.

Transfer QB Jalen Mayden comes over from Mississippi State and could be the answer the team needs under center. He has to move the chains as the team’s average of 24.6 points and five yards per play won’t cut it if they hope to finish in the top-three and go over six wins.

Air Force Falcons

Expected wins: 6½ [Over -120, Under -110]

The Falcons would have been a prime “buy low” team via college football picks as they could return close to where they finished in 2019: as one of the two best teams in the Mountain West Conference. To do that, Air Force will need to quickly integrate its reinforcements coming via its redshirts turning into key defensive cogs.

The AFA finished with a 3-3 record in 2020 despite outscoring its opposition 146 to 90. It also lost to Army for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. But in 2019, Air Force finished with an 11-2 record and won the Cheez-It Bowl. It finished ranked no. 22 in the AP rankings.

We can consider 2020 as an aberration or an “incomplete” for the Falcons as they contend in the MWC and eclipse six wins. This is assuming the defense picks up and the offense can put points on the board, something it failed to do consistently in 2020.

The offense hinges on how well QB Haaziq Daniels can lead the team. He has some heavy artillery with TE Kyle Patterson and WR Brandon Lewis being two of the best receivers in the conference.

On defense, the Air Force, ironically, was great on the ground but not in the air. The secondary needs to play better after being mediocre in passing defense. But the returns of LB Lakota Wills and CB Tre Bugg, just to name a few, will bolster the unit that should once again be elite.

Nevada Wolfpack

Expected wins: 7½ [Over -130, Under Ev]

The Wolfpack have been a powerhouse in the MWC and have won at least seven games in 10 of the last 13 seasons. Even in a truncated 2020 season, Nevada finished with the second-best record in the conference with seven wins and  it will look to keep the momentum heading to this season.

Nevada improved sharply on its defense in 2020 going from allowing 31.9 points in 2019 to just 23.3 in 2020. The credit goes to new defensive coordinator Brian Ward. Several transfers should also bolster the secondary, which was a weak spot for the team.

It’s interesting to see the line at just 7.5 as folks have started betting on the over on the college football lines.

Coach Jay Norvell has led the team to three consecutive winning seasons and bowl appearances and this 2021 incarnation could be his best team yet. QB Carson Strong will be a candidate to finish as the best quarterback in the conference.

Strong will lead an offense that features the return of receivers Elijah Cooks and Romeo Doubs and running back Toa Taua. The offensive line is an area of concern so if it falls apart, it would limit the offensive ceiling of this team.

But the improved defense could mitigate any shortcomings from the offense, especially if it figures out how to create more turnovers.

A Week 5 meeting with Boise State will be a must-watch after not having faced each other in the previous two seasons. This is a prime spot for Nevada to snap its six-game losing streak against their archnemesis.

San Jose State Spartans

Expected wins: 7½ [Over -140, Under +110]

Hot on the heels of the Wolfpack will be the Spartans, who finished with a 7-1 overall record last season. However, the team has lost several key players and the scores and odds for this team, such as the expected win total being only 7.5, reflect a “down” season in 2021.

Replicating 2020’s breakout year will be tough for the Spartans, especially with the Wolfpack and Fresno State being significantly improved in their division. The Spartans defeated Boise State in the MW Championship Game.

The team will miss the receiving duo of Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker and S Tre Webb. The team was already vulnerable in its conversion rate and may struggle more in this department unless QB Nick Starkel quickly finds a connection with the replacements.

But on defense, expect the Spartans to still be among the cream-of-the-crop. DC Derrick Odum continues to squeeze every bit of talent he can from the unit as they limited opponents to under 20 points a game last season. With ten starters returning, the defense should keep chugging along.

Also notable is the team’s schedule. SJSU does not face Boise State and will not play the other contenders of the conference until Week 10. The Spartans may have already built a wide record at this point, but it will test its mettle against three of the four top teams.

With that said, winning eight or more games appears within the team’s grasp.

Wyoming Cowboys

Expected wins: 8 [Over -105, Under -125]

Wyoming had a forgettable 2020 thanks to an injury to QB Sean Chambers practically tanking their offense. The Cowboys finished with a 2-4 record and scored a total of 25 points in their final two games. But with Chambers healthy and most of the top-notch defense returning, the Cowboys are due for a stronger 2021 and the eight projected wins reflect it.

Consider 2020 a mulligan for Wyoming and look back to 2019. The Cowboys finished with an 8-5 record despite going just 4-4 in the conference. The team did have five All-Conference players and destroyed Nevada while taking the Broncos, who finished unbeaten in the conference, to overtime.

Wyoming will continue to sport a powerful defense that returns nine starters from 2020. The team limited opponents to just 4.9 yards per snap and 21 points a game. The onus is on Chambers and the offense to lift this team’s floor.

The offense was tough to watch last season as three quarterbacks combined for just one touchdown. New OC Tim Polasek and the return of Chambers should revitalize this unit. Chambers can be better even if he’s not a superstar like Josh Allen as the backfield of Xazavian Valladay and Trey Smith will do the heavy lifting.

With a healthier team, the Cowboys can run their smashmouth style of defense and grind teams out. Look for the totals and team totals in Cowboys games to be lined on the lower side although don’t put it past them to drop 40+ on the weaker teams.

Boise State Broncos

Expected wins: 9 [Over +110, Under -140]

Death. Taxes. Boise State owning the Mountain West Conference. With win totals set at nine, expectations are sky-high for the Broncos despite the change-over in the coach’s seat. Gone is Bryan Harsin, who guided the program to three conference titles, and in is Andy Avalos.

This program has dominated the MWC since it joined the conference in 2011 but a rookie coach and a tough non-conference schedule may make the 2021 season rougher than one can expect.

Last season, the Broncos finished with a 5-2 record but fell short against SJSU in the MW Championship Game. The team led the MWC in scoring but only generated 5.4 yards per play. New coordinator Tim Plough will look to sharpen the offense while Avalos will do the same for the defense, which fell off last season.

The team returns most of the defensive core but departures from the secondary will weaken an already vulnerable passing defense. The Broncos had just three takeaways in 2020 and the unit allowed over 27 points a game, the most since joining the conference.

BSU needs to start fast; it opens against UCF before playing host to Oklahoma State in Week 3 then facing Nevada, BYU, and Air Force in three straight weeks. This shouldn’t be an issue for the MWC superpower, but even the slightest tumble here can leave the throne for the taking. And bettors are counting on it.

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