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College Football Wins – SEC East

When you are in the process of diving into regular-season win totals for college football teams, that’s a clear sign that the scent of football is in the air. The season is just a few weeks away. The Olympics are over. People are hungry for pigskin action. Let’s examine the numbers and analyze each team’s chances in 2021.

Georgia

Expected wins: 10½ [Over -130, Under Ev]

The Bulldogs went through noticeable struggles at quarterback last season. Stetson Bennett was a reasonably intelligent quarterback, but he was simply too small. When he stood in the pocket, he could not see over an opposing defensive line.

Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts after a touchdown during the first half of the G-Day spring game
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

His passes were regularly tipped by opposing defensive linemen and sometimes intercepted. He was pulled midway through the season in favor of D’Wan Mathis, who was taller and more athletic but not as smart as Bennett. Mathis played the second half of the Bulldogs’ big game against the rival Florida Gators but was unable to spark the offense. Head coach Kirby Smart kept looking for answers at quarterback, and once USC transfer J.T. Daniels finally became healthy enough to play, Smart gave him a chance under center.

Georgia’s offense began to perk up under Daniels, who has a big-league throwing arm and was able to get the Bulldogs’ receivers much more centrally involved in the offense. Georgia’s defense held the fort in the Peach Bowl, enabling the ‘Dawgs to come back for a late victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Georgia enters the new season with a lot of hope, knowing that its offensive and defensive lines should be very strong, but not being fully sure of how good its receivers are. If Daniels can put the pieces together at quarterback, Georgia is capable of making a really big run this season.

There are four games which stand out on the schedule. The biggest one is the season opener against Clemson. If Georgia can win that one, its chances of making the College Football Playoff go up considerably. The Bulldogs would not have to win the SEC championship to make the playoff. Georgia’s other games of note are against Auburn, Florida and Tennessee.

The key game in that bunch is against Florida, which unseated the Bulldogs for the SEC East Division championship last year. Georgia will be out for revenge there. Georgia should comfortably win 10 games. It comes down to this team’s ability to be perfect in the SEC. Usually, Georgia stumbles once in a game it ought to win. Take a slight lean toward the under for the college football odds.

Florida

Expected wins: 9 [Over -115, Under -115]

The Gators lose a brilliant quarterback in Kyle Trask and an even more brilliant tight end in Kyle Pitts, who was impossible for defenses to cover last season. The Gators scored 46 points in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama but lost because their defense surrendered 52 points. Florida won’t have nearly as strong an offense this season, with Emory Jones replacing Trask at quarterback.

Jones is a dual-threat QB who will need to scramble for first downs in third-and-5 situations. Florida can’t expect to score nearly as much as it did in 2020, so the solution is for Jones to lead a ball-control offense that chews up the clock and keeps the defense fresh and rested.

That defense, which was taken apart by Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU, had a lot of young pieces. They need to develop and round into form this year if the Gators are to have a realistic chance of defending their SEC East Division title against Georgia.

The big games for Florida are against Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, and Florida State. Florida will very likely lose to ‘Bama and Georgia, but if it wins the other three games on that list of five, it will still finish with 10 wins. The over looks like the better play from this vantage point.

Kentucky

Expected wins: 7 [Over -145, Under +115]

Kentucky is nothing if not consistent under head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats regularly have a sound, disciplined, rugged defense, especially at the linebacker position, and a mediocre offense that runs the ball decently but struggles to throw the ball down the field and challenge opposing secondaries. Kentucky has to be able to prove that it can bring something new to the table on offense.

Unless or until it does, the Wildcats will fall into the familiar box where they normally reside: a seven-win team. That is the normal standard for this program under the current coaching staff. Kentucky is the classic team that lacks the offense needed to blow out any of its SEC opponents, but whose defense is so good and tough that most SEC teams will struggle to blow the Wildcats off the field.

Kentucky’s big 2021 games are against Florida, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisville, Mississippi State and Missouri. If Kentucky wins three of these seven games, it will finish with eight wins, barring an improbable upset loss in another of its contests. Given that Mississippi State and Louisville are coming off brutally bad seasons and have a lot of question marks on their respective rosters, Kentucky, for all its flaws, can still impose its defense on the opposition and notch an eight-win season. The over is the better play on the college football lines at this point.

Tennessee

Expected wins: 6 [Over +120, Under -150]

The Tennessee Volunteers had another miserable season in 2020, bad enough to get head coach Jeremy Pruitt fired despite his formidable recruiting in the SEC. Pruitt simply could not turn the corner with his program, largely because the Volunteers kept shuttling one quarterback after another onto the field with no success. The Vols used several different quarterbacks last season with the desperation of a blind man hoping his dart throw would hit the bull’s-eye. It was not a recipe for success.

Tennessee’s offense regularly broke down and could not generate any consistent production. Out went Pruitt, and in came new coach Josh Heupel, formerly the head coach at UCF, where he led the Knights to a Fiesta Bowl appearance a few seasons ago.

Tennessee finally has a head coach who focuses on quarterback play instead of a defensive coach such as Pruitt. The Vols haven’t won a division title since 2007 and they haven’t won the SEC championship since 1998. They aren’t going to win the SEC this year, but they can at least get the program turned around and set up a run in 2022.

The Vols’ big games are against Pittsburgh, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Georgia, and Alabama. Tennessee needs to win two of these seven games in order to finish above its win total. Pittsburgh and Missouri are the two most likely wins, but hardly guaranteed.

Kentucky and Ole Miss are winnable, but the Vols will be slight to modest underdogs in those contests. It seems that Tennessee will undergo a noticeable stylistic transition this year. It is hard to assume the best outcome when a program with a given style suddenly tries to change in a single off-season. The under is probably the better play for your college football picks.

Missouri

Expected wins: 7 [Over -130, Under Ev]

Missouri played a brutal schedule a year ago and survived it. The Tigers played Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU and played competitively against them. An upset win over LSU was a catalyst in helping Missouri finish with a respectable 5-5 record. The Tigers’ offense made good adjustments for much of the season, and the defense was able to win a few noticeably tough ballgames.

The whole team pulled together much better than many experts had initially predicted. Missouri comes off its 2020 experience believing that it can once again reach the .500 mark and hold its own in the SEC. Rising to the top of the conference might be asking too much, but the Tigers are focused on making sure they don’t plummet to the bottom of the league and miss out on a bowl bid. If they can go 6-6 right now, they would probably take it.

Missouri’s big games are against Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Boston College, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. When you check the scores and odds, in those contests, they’ll probably be underdogs in all by one or two. If Mizzou can win two of those seven games, it can go over the total. Tennessee and Arkansas have noticeable weaknesses. As long as Missouri wins the games it is supposed to win, the over looks good here.

South Carolina

Expected wins: 4 [Over -130, Under Ev]

South Carolina joined Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the SEC East this offseason as teams that replaced their head coach. The Gamecocks sacked previous coach Will Muschamp and replaced him with Shane Beamer. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because it is familiar. Beamer is indeed the son of retired Virginia Tech coaching legend Frank Beamer. Shane Beamer has spent many years near his dad and in coaching circles, but he hasn’t had a head coaching job before.

This job will be a severe test of his capabilities, and in season one, Beamer figures to have a very rough ride in the SEC East at a program that is undergoing a full rebuild. South Carolina was 2-8 last year, its only wins coming against lowly Vanderbilt and Auburn. The Gamecocks’ defense vanished in the second half of the season, allowing 41 or more points in five of their last six games. Beamer has to begin an overhaul of the program, as opposed to making slight cosmetic changes.

South Carolina faces especially tough games against Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Clemson. The Gamecocks will be underdogs in all of those games, and they will need to win at least one to go over the win total. Given the complete collapse of the program a year ago, it is hard to express optimism in South Carolina going over the total.

Vanderbilt

Expected wins: 3½  [Over -130, Under Ev]

As with South Carolina and Tennessee, Vanderbilt started over as head coach, hiring Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea as head coach. Lea is a Vanderbilt alumnus who wanted the challenge of restoring his alma mater to a position of success and prominence. Lea is an excellent defensive coordinator who should be able to make Vandy relatively competitive on that side of the ball.

However, as with his predecessor on the job, Derek Mason, Lea’s main challenge will be to get the most out of Vanderbilt’s offense. The Commodores have consistently struggled on that side of the ball and have not figured out ways to consistently score against SEC defenses. The defense can keep Vanderbilt reasonably competitive, but the offense needs to be better if the Commodores are going to take the proverbial next step in the SEC and attain a level of quality they have rarely achieved in a snake-bitten and difficult football history.

The schedule is brutal for Vanderbilt: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Stanford, Colorado State, and Ole Miss will all be expected to beat the Commodores. The Colorado State game could be a winning opportunity if everything breaks right, but Vanderbilt is starting over and has a very tiny margin for error. Betting the under makes more sense for Vandy.

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