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College Football Wins – Sun Belt Conference Lower Tier

This time around, it’s the Sun Belt Conference.

When the sportsbook posts regular-season win totals for college football teams, you know the season is just around the corner. We dive into the numbers and analyze each team’s chances to excel or disappoint. This time around, it’s the Sun Belt Conference.

Georgia Southern Eagles

Expected wins: 4½ [Over -135, Under +105]

The Georgia Southern Eagles enter Allen E. Paulson Stadium for their game against the South Alabama Jaguars
Chris Thelen/Getty Images/AFP

The top half of the Sun Belt is loaded with some great teams, but the bottom half of the conference is pretty week. Georgia Southern is a part of that group, but the Eagles could have what it takes to challenge some of the top teams.

Florida Atlantic and Arkansas are on the non-conference schedule for Georgia Southern, and the Eagles will be underdogs in those games. Georgia Southern should be favored against the bottom teams in the league, especially when playing at home.

Georgia Southern went 8-5 a season ago and capped the year off with a dominant win over Louisiana Tech in a bowl game. That should seem to give the Eagles some momentum, but they also lost their starting quarterback and nearly all of their defense.

Georgia Southern is going to face some challenges in 2021, but this program has a history of playing good football. Setting the regular-season win total feels a bit low, and a lack of respect for a team that has made it to three straight bowl games.

South Alabama Jaguars

Expected wins: 4½ [Over Ev, Under -130]

South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley is set to take over at the quarterback position for South Alabama, which has a new coach as well. Kane Wommack comes to the school after leaving Indiana, and he will bring a Big Ten style of football with him.

It’s never easy to make college football picks, which will be the case in several South Alabama games. The Jaguars finished the 2020 season with a 4-7 record and are projected to win 4.5 games in 2021.

This team didn’t do any favors in setting up the schedule, as there are some tough non-conference games. Beating the top teams in the Sun Belt doesn’t seem likely for South Alabama, especially since this team has a ton of new pieces in place.

If Bentley has a big season, South Alabama could pull off some upset wins, but things could also go the wrong way in a hurry.

Texas State Bobcats

Expected wins: 4½ [Over -115, Under -115]

The college football odds for Texas State have a regular-season win total set at 4.5 and that seems a bit high for a Bobcats team with a loaded schedule. Texas State has won just five total games in the last five seasons, and now it would have to match that mark in one season to go over the total.

The Bobcats will face Baylor, Florida International, Incarnate Word and Eastern Michigan in the non-conference, and picking up just one win would seem like a victory.  Texas State be the underdog in most of its conference games.

The Bobcats will be able to score some points as quarterback Brady McBride can be a nightmare for opposing defenses. A number of other offensive starters are set to return, but that side of the ball has not been the problem the last two years.

The Bobcats allowed more than 35 points per game and the roster didn’t see many big-name defensive players added to it. With some great offensive teams in the Sun Belt Conference, Texas State could be a nightmare scenario.

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Expected wins: 4½ [Over -125, Under -105]

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will now be under the leadership of Butch Jones, who has a history of turning programs around. He will have to work quickly as Arkansas State went just 4-7 last season and the schedule looks daunting on paper.

The Red Wolves play host to Central Arkansas in the season opener, but then they play six straight games in which they should be the underdog, according to the college football lines. Arkansas State plays Memphis and Washington in the non-conference before taking on some of the best teams in the Sun Belt to begin conference play.

This team lost a number of key players but the roster will also feature a number of key transfers. Winning the toss-up games will determine the success of Arkansas State, but it has to be able to avoid a slow start.

There are some winnable games near the end year, but setting the regular-season win total at 4.5 games feels a bit high for an unproven team.

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks

Expected wins: 1½ [Over Ev, Under -130]

If you are someone that studies scores and odds from around the world of college football, then you know that the 2020 season was extremely rough for Louisiana Monroe. This team failed to win a game and was outscored by nearly a combined 300 points in those losses.

Terry Bowden now steps in as the head coach and he has his work cut out for him. The Warhawks aren’t going to be favored in any of the Sun Belt Conference matchups, and the same could be true for the non-conference as well.

Louisiana Monroe will host Jackson State of the FCS is the non-conference, but that game might be the only chance for the Warhawks to win. There is plenty of experience on this roster, but that same roster was overmatched in 2020.

Setting the regular-season win total at 1.5 always looks shocking on paper, but that is right where it should be for Louisiana Monroe. If this team is able to win at least two games, it would be considered a very successful season.


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