Fan the Flames: Liberty Betting Pick in Conference USA

While Liberty’s impressive run landed the Flames a spot in one of the New Year’s Six bowls, the Flames were not even in the conversation for the College Football Playoffs. That would not be the case in 2024. With the College Football Playoff field expanding from four to 12 teams, the champion from the top five conferences is guaranteed to land a spot in the CFP. That means at least one team from the Group of Five will be part of the field.

Not counting Notre Dame, Liberty is vying with Boise State out of the Mountain West and James Madison from the Sun Belt Conference for the shortest college football championship odds to make it into the College Football Playoff field among the teams outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

Kennesaw State joins Conference USA this season but will not be eligible for the league’s championship game. Delaware and Missouri State will join Conference USA in 2025.

Two of Liberty’s conference games were decided by seven points or less in 2023 so perhaps another team or two can rise up and challenge the Flames.

Here’s some information to consider when making college football predictions in Conference USA.

Top 3 Contenders in Conference USA

1. Salter’s Return Makes Liberty the Betting Favorite

There isn’t often much good news coming out of the transfer portal from Group of Five conferences. Teams from the power conferences are plucking away many of the best players.

It looked like that was going to be the case with Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter when the redshirt sophomore from Cedar Hill, Texas, entered the transfer portal. He later took his name out of the portal so Liberty still had the player who passed for 2,876 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions and also ran for 1,089 yards and 12 more scores.

Not all the transfer news was quite as positive.

Leading receiver CJ Daniels is now at LSU. The defense took a hit with safety Preston Hodge landing at Colorado, defensive lineman Kendy Charles leaving for Duke and cornerback Kobe Singleton heading off to Oregon State.

The Flames added Auburn edge rusher Brenton Williams while defensive backs Jason Duclona, Alex Oliver and Dominick Hill can make an immediate impact for a Liberty team that is currently priced by the sportsbook odds at -180 to win Conference USA.

2. Can Western Kentucky Thrive As No. 2 Pick in Betting Odds?

While Conference USA favorite Liberty is taking the path of least resistance when it comes to the non-conference schedule, Western Kentucky is choosing a different path.

The Hilltoppers, priced at +400 in the Conference USA championship odds, open the season by traveling to Tuscaloosa to meet up with perennial national title contender Alabama. The Crimson Tide is currently a 31-point favorite.

Facing Alabama should prepare Western Kentucky to make a run at the Conference USA title.

Western Kentucky has been competitive in 2020 and 2023 matchups with Liberty, only to fall short each time. Will it be a different story this season?

While leading receiver Malachi Corley is now with the NFL’s New York Jets, Dalvin Smith and Michael Mattison were named first-team All-Conference USA while Easton Messer was the top kick returner in Athlon Magazine’s preseason preview. Smith and Messer combined for 92 catches and 10 touchdowns in 2023.

1️⃣8️⃣‼️

The Hilltoppers received 18 selections on the @AthlonSports Preseason All-Conference USA Team!

🔗 https://t.co/Ij2T2jad1P#GoTops pic.twitter.com/f2jut0xHYy

— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) June 3, 2024

Former Alabama State receiver Kisean Johnson is another pass catcher to watch. Running back Ta’ron Keith transferred in from Bowling Green.

The defense lost a couple of key contributors when safety Kendrick Simpkins and edge rusher JaQues Evans transferred to Baylor. They received good news when cornerback Upton Stout withdrew his name from the transfer portal.

Marshall defensive lineman Jalil Rivera-Harvey, Ole Miss Demarko Williams and Texas A&M Kent Robinson could make immediate impacts on defense.

3. Jacksonville State Ready to Take the Next Step?

Jacksonville State is coming off a nine-win season with the Gamecocks being in every game. Speaking of Gamecocks, Jacksonville State made some news with an early November win over the Gamecocks of South Carolina.

Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky are vying to be the No. 2 favorite in Conference USA. Right now, the Gamecocks are at +500 to win Conference USA.

The Gamecocks added Georgia running back Andrew Paul, Colorado receiver Tar’Varish Dawson, FAU edge rusher Morven Joseph, Gannon safety Kam Snell and North Alabama receiver Demarcus Lacey.

Linebacker J’Rock Swain (four sacks) and safety Fred Perry (75 tackles) were named to the Conference USA first team in the Athlon Sports preview, with linebacker Laletia Hale and cornerback Derek Carter second-team selections.

Running back Anwar Lewis and tight end Sean Brown (team-high five touchdown catches) were also honored by Athlon.

There is quite a gap after Jacksonville State with Sam Houston State (+2000), Middle Tennessee (+2500), Louisiana Tech (+3000), New Mexico State (+5000), UTEP (+6000) and FIU (+10000) having some work to do.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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