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Heisman Trophy Stock Up, Stock Down: Penix Back Atop Odds

· Oct 31 - 7 minutes read

What a weekend it was in the college football world. Oklahoma suffered its first loss of the season to Kansas. It was the first time the Jayhawks topped Oklahoma since 1997, and the Jayhawks had lost the last 18 matchups by at least 10 points. Penn State, Washington and USC are among the teams to avoid upset bids in Week 9. Naturally, Oklahoma’s loss did not exactly do wonders for quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman Trophy odds.

When the season began, there were 10 players with odds to win the Heisman Trophy between +500 and +1000. Heading into Week 10, only Washington’s Michael Penix, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Florida State’s Jordan Travis, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon’s Bo Nix can be considered serious Heisman candidates.

Heisman Trophy Stock Up, Stock Down: Penix Back Atop Odds — Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies reacts after beating against the Arizona State Sun Devils | Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

With Missouri facing Georgia, Washington heading to play USC and LSU squaring off with Alabama, multiple Week 10 games could impact the Heisman Trophy race.

When looking at the best college football teams, Georgia (+250), Michigan (+250), Florida State (+600) and Ohio State (+700) not only lead the way with the best odds to win the 2023 NCAA football championship, but they also have Heisman Trophy candidates.

Here’s a look at the latest edition of the Heisman risers and fallers of the 2023 season.

Penix Returns to Top of Heisman Trophy Odds

It wasn’t the best effort during the two seasons that Michael Penix Jr. has been quarterbacking the Washington Huskies as he completed a season-low 56.8% of his passes and threw an interception for the third game in a row.

However, his 369 passing yards and four touchdown passes helped Washington hold off a spirited upset bid by a two-win Stanford team.

Penix is completing 69% of his passes for 2,945 yards to go with 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He joins LSU’s Daniels as the only Football Bowl Subdivision player to have at least 20 touchdown passes while averaging at least 10 yards per attempt.

Penix is back in the front-runner role and is priced at +275 by our sportsbook to win the Heisman. McCarthy (+300) and Daniels (+400) aren’t far behind.

Michigan didn’t play last week and now gets ready for a challenging end to the regular season with games versus ranked Penn State and Ohio State teams remaining.

McCarthy has completed 78.1% of his passes for 1,799 yards, 18 TDs and three interceptions.

Daniels leads all FBS players in passing efficiency, is tied for the national lead with 25 touchdown passes and his 11.5 yards per attempt also leads all FBS passers.

About the only checkmark on the wrong side of the ledger is that LSU has lost twice this season.

Keep an Eye on Ohio State’s Harrison

When the season began, the 11 players with the best odds to win the Heisman Trophy were all quarterbacks.

The first non-quarterback to appear on the board was Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

His odds took a bit of a hit after having just three catches for 32 yards in a high-profile matchup with Notre Dame.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES LONGGGG TOUCHDOWN 🏹

Michael Penix Jr to Ja’Lynn Polk 🔥

93 Yards To The HOUSE 🏠 pic.twitter.com/tYtByF3ETU

— Sports ON Tap Seattle (@SeattleONTap) October 29, 2023

Since then, Harrison has four straight 100-yard games. He is averaging 17.8 yards per catch during that stretch with five TD grabs. He is tied for 10th nationally with eight catches of at least 30 yards and he has seen his odds to win the Heisman move from +8000 to +1200 in the last two weeks.

The top running backs haven’t been as fortunate. Only Michigan’s Blake Corum is showing up on the board and he is well back at +8000 in the Heisman odds.

Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton, Quinshon Judkins of Ole Miss and Clemson’s Will Shipley are among the runners who have been trending in the wrong direction.

Checking in on the Reigning Heisman Winner

Caleb Williams had his second-highest passing yardage total of the season when he threw for 369 yards in Week 9.

The good news is that Williams and USC snapped a two-game losing streak. The bad news is the Trojans were pushed to the limit by a mediocre Cal team before prevailing 50-49.

Williams has a higher completion percentage and a better yards per attempt mark than he did through nine games during his Heisman Trophy-winning season despite not throwing to star receiver Jordan Addison in 2023.

The three interceptions in a loss to Notre Dame ended any hopes of back-to-back Heisman Trophies. His odds have gone from +2500 to +8000 over the last two weeks.

Who’s Rising in the Heisman Trophy Race?

Travis and Florida State are rolling right along as the Seminoles have won their last four games by 22, 38, 18 and 25 points.

Travis threw for a season-high 359 yards in last week’s win over Wake Forest.

With the struggles at Pittsburgh along with Miami and Florida dropping out of the top 25 in the national polls, there aren’t going to be many opportunities for Travis to wow Heisman voters.

However, if Florida State continues to win impressively, he can’t be discounted. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win the Heisman.

Daniels has seen his odds go from +1400 to +400 in the last two weeks while Oregon’s Nix has gone from +2500 to +600 during that time.

Nix hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games and, after facing California this weekend, the Ducks meet up with Williams and USC in Week 11.

Who’s Falling in the Heisman Trophy Race?

The fact that North Carolina’s Drake Maye has back-to-back games with more than 300 passing yards can’t overcome the damage that losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech have done to his Heisman Trophy odds.

Facing Campbell, a Football Championship Subdivision team, will do little to aid his cause.

Maye has seen his odds tumble to +8000 and he is pretty much out of the Heisman Trophy conversation.

Gabriel only attempted 19 passes against a Kansas team that is 11th in the Big 12 in passing efficiency defense in conference play. That not only played a role in the surprising loss but also sent Gabriel’s odds in the wrong direction. At +3300 in the Heisman Trophy odds, he can’t be ignored as a Heisman threat, but he has a lot of work to do.

BET ON HEISMAN TROPHY

Matchup of the Week

Washington Huskies (-3½) at Southern California Trojans

Saturday, Nov. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

It is easy to forget that USC is still very much in play for a spot in the Pac-12 title game. A win over undefeated Washington would certainly be a step in the right direction.

When looking at the NCAAF score predictions, this is just the second time in the last seven meetings between Washington and USC that the visiting team is favored.

Much of the focus will be on the quarterback matchup with Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, going up against Penix, the current Heisman front-runner.

USC is seventh and Washington ninth in passing yards allowed in the Pac-12. The Trojans have allowed 22 touchdown passes so that could bode well for Penix on Saturday.

Bet On Washington (-3½) at USC

Questions Of The Day

Which Heisman contender is offering good betting value?

With a game this week against Alabama, it might be wise to jump on LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at +400 as his odds are sure to move after facing the Crimson Tide.