Heisman Trophy Stock Up, Stock Down: USC’s Williams Plummets

An ankle injury suffered by Georgia tight end Brock Bowers will take out a prominent Heisman Trophy candidate. The injury to Bowers resulted in Georgia (+280) falling behind Michigan (+270) when it comes to the best odds to win the 2023 NCAA football championship. Florida State is third in the championship odds.

The number of Heisman Trophy candidates on the board has been cut back a bit after a wild Week 7 in the college football universe.

Here’s a look at the latest edition of the Heisman risers and fallers of the 2023 season.

Washington’s Penix Bolsters Heisman Odds

Last week, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. jumped ahead of Williams to become the front-runner in this year’s Heisman race.

Even though Penix threw for a season-low 302 yards in a win over Oregon, he did come through with his Heisman moment.

After the questionable decision by Oregon coach Dan Lanning to go for it on a fourth-and-3 play near midfield with a four-point lead and just over two minutes to go, Washington only had to go 53 yards to take the lead in a showdown of previously undefeated Pac-12 rivals.

After a 35-yard completion to Ja’Lynn Polk, Penix connected with Rome Odunze for the go-ahead 18-yard touchdown pass with 1:38 left to play. His fourth touchdown pass of the game put Washington in front 36-33. Oregon’s game-tying field goal on the final play of the fourth quarter was no good.

Penix saw his odds to win the Heisman Trophy go from +400 to +200 to -140, according to the college football betting lines, in the last three weeks.

Penix failed to complete at least 70% of his passes for the first time this season. He has 20 touchdown passes and three interceptions to give him 51 touchdowns and 11 picks since transferring in from Indiana.

Williams had thrown more than one interception just once in his first 31 games at Oklahoma and Southern California before he was picked off three times in a 48-20 loss at Notre Dame.

Michael Penix to Rome Odunze for the win. pic.twitter.com/Mm2TN1Qpma

— Evan Feather (@evanfeather42) October 14, 2023

He was 23 of 37 for 199 yards and one touchdown pass. After running for six touchdowns in the previous four games, Williams carried the ball 13 times for -8 yards and was sacked six times.

In a lower-profile game, Williams might have gotten away with this type of effort. However, plenty of eyes were on the Notre Dame-USC clash so it will take some brilliant play down the stretch for Williams to work his way back into Heisman front-runner status.

According to the sportsbook, the Heisman odds for Williams moved from +225 to +2500 after the Notre Dame debacle.

Down Goes Bowers

One of the players who was starting to make a move in the Heisman odds is now coming off the board.

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers will undergo ankle surgery and he will miss multiple weeks. The best player on the two-time defending national championship team is no longer in the running for the Heisman.

Bowers’ odds came in at +4000 last week and that made him one of the top challengers among the non-quarterbacks.

Bowers had three consecutive games with more than 100 receiving yards. That ended when he left last week’s win over Vanderbilt after having four catches for 22 yards. That brought his season total of 567 yards on 41 receptions.

Other than the quarterbacks, the best candidate right now is Michigan running back Blake Corum, who remained at +5000 in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. saw his odds move from +6000 to +8000 despite having six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown in a win over Purdue.

Congratulations to the three #Dawgs selected to ESPN’s midseason All-American Team!

Brock Bowers, Sedrick Van Pran and Malaki Starks

💯🐶🏆🏆 #GoDawgs #DawgsOnTop pic.twitter.com/cO6Sj6xnVv

— GATA National Champion Dawgs (@BassinDawg) October 17, 2023

All Quarterbacks, All the Time

Even before the injury to Bowers, it wasn’t looking good for a position other than quarterback to be a factor in the Heisman Trophy race.

While Corum and Harrison are still on the board, some other running backs and pass catchers thought to be candidates coming into the season haven’t been as fortunate.

It might take a search party to find the odds for other players being viewed as Heisman Trophy contenders when the season started.

Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen (559 rushing yards in six games), Clemson’s Will Shipley (450 yards, 4.95 yards per carry), Quinshon Judkins of Ole Miss (443 yards, 4.1 yards per carry) and Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton (362 yards, 4.1 YPC) have not lived up to the hype.

Other than Corum, the other running backs who seem to be undervalued in the Heisman Trophy race include Notre Dame’s Audric Estime (787 rushing yards, nine TD runs), Ray Davis of Kentucky (781 yards, 7.0 YPC) and Jonathon Brooks of Texas (726 yards, 6.7 YPC).

When it comes to the receivers, Missouri’s Luther Burden III (56 catches, 808 yards) and LSU’s Malik Nabers (52 catches, 860 yards) should be getting some more love.

Who’s Rising in the Heisman Trophy Race?

Penix wasn’t the only quarterback to make a move after the Week 7 games.

Michigan’s JJ McCarthy went from +3000 to +1000 in the Heisman Trophy odds after he completed at least 80% of his passes for the third time this season as Michigan rolled to a 52-7 win over Indiana.

Alabama might be struggling to put teams away, but quarterback Jalen Milroe still made a move this week. His Heisman odds went from +10000 to +5000 despite completing less than 50% of his passes in a 24-21 win over Arkansas.

LSU’s Jayden Daniels (+3000 to +1400) and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel (+1200 to +1000) can’t be discounted in the Heisman race. However, the matchup with Alabama is the only one against a ranked team left for LSU during the regular season while Oklahoma doesn’t have another ranked foe on its regular-season schedule.

It is a similar story for Jordan Travis of Florida State. His odds went from +1600 to +1200. Rival Miami dropping its last two games will hurt when it comes time for the Seminoles and Hurricanes to clash.

North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Kyle McCord of Ohio State and Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei are among the other quarterbacks trending in the right direction.

Who’s Falling in the Heisman Trophy Race?

The Heisman Trophy battle is a tough business. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is completing 79.2% of his passes this season with 17 touchdowns and just one interception. Even after completing 33 of 44 passes for 337 yards with two TDs and no interceptions, his odds went from +600 to +2500.

Each week, it seems as if Texas QB Quinn Ewers sees his Heisman odds head in the wrong direction. It was an out-of-sight, out-of-mind situation as his odds moved from +3500 to +5000 with Texas idle in Week 7.

Matchup of the Week

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-4)

Saturday, Oct. 21, Noon ET (FOX)

In a week with plenty of choices, it is hard to go against this matchup of top-10 teams from the Big Ten.

Harrison had 10 catches for 185 yards in last year’s 44-31 win over Penn State. Another game like that and his current Heisman odds of +8000 figure to change in a good way.

Penn State’s Singleton (14 carries, 45 yards) was pretty quiet in that matchup.

If either quarterback goes off, watch for their Heisman odds. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord is currently priced at +5000 with Drew Allar of Penn State coming in at +6000.

Which factors should be considered to place a bet on the Heisman Trophy?

A quarterback on a team in contention to win the national title figures to win this year’s Heisman Trophy.

What Heisman Trophy winner prediction has the best value?

Keep an eye on the odds for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as he leads the national with a 197.7 quarterback rating. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy.