NCAAF Predictions: Alabama Rises, Miami Plummets in CFP Rankings

· Dec 05 - 6 minutes read

The Big Ten and the SEC each had four teams in the top 12 spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Alabama could make the College Football Playoffs with two losses to unranked teams.
Check out all the NCAA football odds at BetUS sportsbook.

After weeks of pondering the College Football Playoff possibilities, there is a pretty clear picture of what is likely to happen after the conference champions are crowned. The Big Ten and the SEC appear likely to account for eight of the 12 spots in the CFP field following a shakeup in the latest CFP rankings.

NCAAF Predictions: Alabama Rises, Miami Plummets in CFP Rankings — Brashard Smith #1 and Jordan Hudson #8 of the Southern Methodist Mustangs - Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images/AFP

The winners of the Big Ten, the SEC, the ACC, the Big 12 and the Mountain West title games should secure the automatic bids, leading Notre Dame and a host of Big Ten and SEC teams to fill out the field. There will be plenty of college football news made by the results of the conference championship games this weekend.

SMU is priced at -400 to make it into the College Football Playoffs compared to -350 for Alabama when looking at the CFP futures odds.

Arizona State-Penn State, Tennessee-Ohio State, Alabama-Notre Dame and Indiana-Georgia would be the first-round games with Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State earning byes into the quarterfinals.

If the bracket was set with the preseason odds, Georgia, Ohio State, Florida State and Utah would have been the top four seeds followed by Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan and Boise State. Four of those teams – FSU, Utah, Ole Miss and Michigan – will miss the CFP.

“The commissioners have asked us to rank the Top 25 through the conference championships & that’s what we intend to do.”

Hear now from Warde Manuel, chair of the #CFBPlayoff selection committee, as he chatted with @ESPN‘s @ReceDavis after the reveal of tonight’s CFP Top 25. 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/rev8xFkpkS

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2024

Let’s look at my three items of note from the latest reveal of the College Football Playoff rankings.

3 Betting Angles from College Football Playoff Reveal

1. Are the ACC and Big 12 One-Bid Leagues?

It seems pretty safe to assume that only one team from the Big 12 will get a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Arizona State and Iowa State will meet in the Big 12 title game on Saturday with the winner getting into the CFP field. Arizona State is 15th and Iowa State is 16th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings so it is hard to imagine a scenario where the team that loses that game earns one of the 12 playoff spots.

For those looking to make a bet online, Arizona State is a slight favorite at -2 with -130 moneyline odds to win the game outright.

Check out the full College Football Playoff Top 25 for games played through Saturday, November 30.

Where does your team rank as we head toward conference championship weekend and Selection Day?#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/59djj3tbfp

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2024

It is a little more complicated in the ACC. SMU is sitting eighth while Cemson is 17th going into the ACC championship matchup. A win by Clemson puts the Tigers in the field. If that happened, how far would SMU fall? There is still a chance that the Mustangs would get into the field with a loss. That wasn’t part of the NCAAF predictions when the season began.

Per Clemson vs SMU betting tips, the Mustangs’ only wins against ranked teams came against Louisville and Pittsburgh. Neither the Cardinals nor the Panthers are still in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Bet SMU (-400) to Make College Football Playoffs

2. It is Good to Be Alabama

At first glance, it would be easy to excuse those who think Alabama was preordained to be in the CFP regardless of the 2024 results.

Alabama has three losses. There is no shame in losing by seven points on the road against Tennessee. However, it is hard to defend the 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt and a 24-3 shellacking the Crimson Tide took against Oklahoma.

Alabama moved up two spots to No. 11 after beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Does Miami have a beef after falling six spots to No. 12?

Per NCAAF betting trends, Alabama has wins over No. 5 Georgia and No. 14 South Carolina. Miami does not own a win over a team in the top 25 in the current CFP rankings.

Miami had to win two of its last three games against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse, but Hurricanes only came away with one victory despite being listed by the college football odds as the favorite in each of those games, so kiss the CFP hopes goodbye for Miami.

The best-case scenario for Miami after falling to Syracuse in the regular-season finale would have been for Indiana to make it into the Big Ten title game instead of Penn State. A loss to Oregon could easily have knocked Indiana out of playoff position. Penn State won’t fall behind the Canes even if the Nittany Lions fall in the Big Ten title contest.

Bet Alabama to make the College Football Playoff field (-350)

3. Big 12 Teams Pulling for UNLV

The way things stand right now, the Big 12 champion would have to play a first-round game as Mountain West power Boise State is ranked ahead of both Arizona State and Iowa State. However, if UNLV beats Boise State and wins the Mountain West title, the winner of the Big 12 championship game would likely earn either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed and receive a first-round bye.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Clemson wins. Would the Tigers jump over the Big 12 winner even though both Arizona State and Iowa State are ahead of Clemson in the CFP rankings? The Clemson vs SMU betting lines have the Tigers +2½.

Bet Clemson vs SMU (-135) at BetUS