NCAAF Predictions: Georgia Left Out in CFP Rankings

· Nov 13 - 7 minutes read

Some college football news was made with the latest release of the College Football Playoff rankings.
The Big Ten and the SEC each had four teams in the top 12 spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Oregon would be the top seed but not the title favorite according to the college football lines.

Playing in the SEC does come with its risks. Georgia began the season with the shortest odds (+280) of winning the national championship, is not among the 12 seeds in the College Football Playoff after the committee announced its updated bracket after a wild Week 11.

NCAAF Predictions: Georgia Left Out in CFP Rankings — Georgia Bulldogs mascot/Michael Chang/Getty Images/AFP

The Big Ten and the SEC each had four teams among the 12 teams in the field compared to just one for the Big 12 and the ACC. Notre Dame, a Football Bowl Subdivision independent, and Mountain West favorite Boise State are also in the field.

No. 12 Georgia is the only one of the top 12 teams in the most recent Associated Press Top 25 poll not to be in the CFP field. No. 13 Boise State jumped the Bulldogs since the champions of the five top-rated conferences are guaranteed spots in the College Football Playoff. That would make Boise State the No. 12 seed in the bracket.

The college football futures had two teams with shorter national title odds than Oregon when the season began. However, the Ducks would be the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP field. Miami (+15000), BYU (+40000) and Indiana (+50000) own the longest odds of winning the national championship of teams that are in the field right now.

Ohio State (+325) and Oregon (+350) are the leaders in the odds of winning the national title. Texas isn’t far behind at +450.

The first-round games would be Boise State-Ohio State, Notre Dame-Tennessee, Ole Miss-Penn State and Alabama-Indiana, with Oregon, Georgia, Brigham Young and Miami receiving first-round byes.

The champions of the top five conferences receive automatic bids into the field and the top four conference champions get byes into the quarterfinals. That is why Ohio State is slotted in at No. 5 rather than being among the top four seeds despite its No. 2 ranking.

Let’s look at my three items of note from the first peek at the College Football Playoff pecking order.

3 Betting Angles from College Football Playoff Reveal

1. Could Georgia, Alabama Be Left Out?

Since the first College Football Playoff in 2014, the only time both Alabama and Georgia missed the playoffs was in 2019, when LSU was the lone SEC team in the field. With the CFP field expanding from four to 12 teams, more than a few of those who bet online were putting money on Alabama and Georgia to make the field.

Georgia was priced at -700 to make the field with +475 odds to miss the playoffs. Alabama was at -120 to make the CFP and -110 to be on the outside looking in. Saturday’s game between Georgia and Tennessee has the feel of an elimination game.

Georgia and SMU are on the OUTSIDE looking in on the latest CFP bracket projection 😮 pic.twitter.com/ptC70cYrdY

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 13, 2024

Alabama should be listed by the college football odds as the favorite against Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn to close out the regular season. Mercer doesn’t play at the Football Bowl Subdivision level so that won’t help Alabama’s strength of schedule. Oklahoma and Auburn are a combined 8-11 so there is no guarantee that Alabama would get into the CFP field even if it wins out,.

The team to watch is Texas A&M. The Aggies are currently 15th in the CFP rankings. They end the regular season by playing Texas. Wins over Auburn and Texas would put the Aggies in the SEC Championship Game and perhaps in the CFP as well.

Bet Alabama to make the College Football Playoffs (-400)

2. Big 12 Front-Runner Seeded Ahead of the ACC Favorite

A week ago, Miami looked like a lock to make it into the CFP field. That all changed with a 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech. What a difference a week can make.

Miami is ranked ninth and Southern Methodist is at No. 14. The Mustangs need to beat Boston College, Virginia and California to go undefeated in the ACC during the regular season ahead of one-loss teams in Clemson and Miami. Still, Miami is favored by the BetUS Sportsbook odds to win the division at -120.

November 1️⃣2️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings 🏈🏆

1️⃣4️⃣. SMU // @SMUFB pic.twitter.com/V96TSlvEhA

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 13, 2024

Give the ACC schedule makers failing grades considering that SMU, Clemson and Miami don’t play each other in the regular season.

Clemson favored by 10 points against Pittsburgh on Saturday according to the NCAA football spread in the lone remaining ACC game. Miami faces Wake Forest and Syracuse.

Not only is the ACC looking like a one-bid league, but the Big 12 champion is seeded ahead of the ACC champion and that was not the case a week ago.

BYU and Colorado would meet in the Big 12 title game if the season ended right now. They don’t face each other in the regular season. BYU could have a tough road test at Arizona State on Nov. 23 while Colorado plays three teams with losing records to finish out the regular season.

Colorado is 17th in the CFP rankings so it will likely take a win in the Big 12 championship game for Colorado coach Deion Sanders to silence the naysayers by reaching the CFP. Colorado, priced at +1200 to make the CFP at the start of the season, features two-way standout Travis Hunter, the current favorite in Heisman Trophy odds at even money

Bet Miami to Win the ACC Title (-120)

3. Boise State Needs to Keep Winning

With Washington State ranked 18th, Army coming in at No. 24 and Tulane at No. 25, the battle for the Group of Five conference bid into the CFP is up for grabs.

The bid is supposed to go to the winner of the highest rated conference. However, a quick look at the Sagarin rankings shows that the American Athletic Conference is just ahead of the Mountain West.

If Boise State wins out, the Broncos should be the No. 12 seed in the CFP. The Broncos are listed as a double-digit favorite on the road against San Jose State. The last time Boise visited San Jose, the Spartans came away with the 34-20 win as the 6.5-point underdog.

The final game of the regular season is against Oregon State. The Beavers defeated Boise State 34-17 in 2022 in the most recent matchup between the programs so there is work yet to be done.

Bet Boise State to make the College Football Playoffs (-325)

Questions Of The Day

Which Week 12 game will have the greatest impact on the next College Football Playoff ranking?

The Tennessee vs Georgia game in Athens will have a major say in what next week’s College Football Playoff rankings look like.

Which teams with the best title odds at the beginning of the season aren't in the College Football Playoff rankings?

Reigning national champion Michigan (+750), USC (+1600) and Florida State (+2000) were among the eight teams with the shortest title odds. None are in the top 25 in the CFP rankings.