NCAAF Predictions: How CFP Rankings Shape Betting Odds
- Some college football news was made with the release of the first college football playoff rankings.
- The Big Ten and the SEC each had four teams in the top 12 spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.
- Oregon would be the top seed but not the title favorite according to the college football lines.
There were few surprises when the College Football Playoff selection committee announced the 12 teams that would be in the field if the season ended today. The top 12 teams in the latest Associated Press rankings happen to be the 12 teams in the CFP field as well.
The college football futures had two teams with shorter national title odds than Oregon when the season began. However, the Ducks would be the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP field. Miami (+15000), BYU (+40000) and Indiana (+50000) own the longest odds of winning the national championship of teams that are in the field right now.
Those who combined Indiana at +20000 to win the Big Ten, SMU at +1000 to win the ACC and BYU at +12000 to win the Big 12 title when the season began are loving life right now. It would have made for quite the college football parlay payout Tennessee (+160) and Miami (+170) offered good value in the odds of reaching the College Football Playoff.
The first-round games would be Boise State-Ohio State, Indiana-Tennessee, Alabama-Texas and Notre Dame-Penn State, with Oregon, Georgia, Miami and Brigham Young receiving first-round byes.
The first CFP Top 25 rankings have dropped ‼️📊
Do you agree? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/v0Kg9SJfWA
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 6, 2024
The champions of the top five conferences receive automatic bids into the field with the top four conference champions getting byes into the quarterfinals. That is why Ohio State is slotted in at No. 5 rather than being among the top four seeds despite its No. 2 ranking.
Let’s look at my three items of note from the first peek at the College Football Playoff pecking order.
Top 3 Betting Angles from College Football Playoff Reveal
1. Will ACC and Big 12 Be One-Bid Conferences?
The Big Ten and the SEC each have four teams in the College Football Playoff field and that doesn’t leave much room for the ACC and the Big 12.
Miami won’t play another ranked team in the regular season so the Hurricanes could go into the ACC Championship Game without a game against a ranked opponent. It is hard to envision a scenario where the Hurricanes get left out of the field. If Miami wins the ACC title game, that could result in the ACC having just one team in the CFP field.
SMU might have to win the ACC title game to defy the NCAA football predictions and get an invitation. Pittsburgh still has games against ranked Clemson and Louisville teams, but the Panthers would need help from either Miami or SMU to get into the ACC Championship Game.
The Big 12 situation is a little harder to predict. The winner of the Big 12 title game will be in the CFP field. That might be it for the Big 12.
Iowa State’s one-point loss to Texas Tech was very damaging. The regular-season finale against Kansas State has a chance to be for a spot in the Big 12 title game. Colorado might have something to say about that as Deion Sanders’ team has a huge road game against Texas Tech. After that, the combined record of the final three opponents for the Buffaloes is 9-16.
Bet BYU to Finish The Regular Season Undefeated (+250)
2. Can Alabama Remain in the Field?
One team from the Group of Five conferences is guaranteed to receive a spot in the field so that makes the No. 11 seed the most vulnerable team.
Right now, Southern Methodist, Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss are the teams the closest to No. 11 seed Alabama. LSU and Alabama will meet in Baton Rouge on Saturday night so one of these teams can kiss their national title hopes goodbye. The college football spread has Alabama favored by three points. The Crimson Tide still have to play at Oklahoma and will face Auburn in the Iron Bowl to end the regular season.
Texas A&M still has a matchup left with Texas and that could make or break the Aggies’ championship aspirations. The SMU situation was addressed above.
Ole Miss welcomes Georgia to town this week. If the Rebels win that game, they could leap ahead of some of the teams ahead of them. According to the BetUS sportsbook odds, visiting Georgia is a 2.5-point favorite against Ole Miss.
Bet Georgia to Win SEC Title (+160)
3. Is Boise State A Lock?
When the season began, Oregon State was the team outside the Power-4 conferences with the best odds to get into the CFP field. That is not the case any longer. Boise State is the team to beat in the race for the Group of Five spot. The Broncos feature running back Ashton Jeanty, who is +500 in the Heisman Trophy odds.
November 5️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings 🏈🏆
1️⃣2️⃣. Boise State// @BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/SHNH2Ny31I
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 6, 2024
Washington State is 21st in the CFP rankings while Army is at No. 25. Tulane of the ACC can’t be overlooked while the Conference USA, Mid-American Conference and Sun Belt won’t see their conference champions in play for a CFP spot.
Bet Boise State to win the Mountain West title (-300)
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions of the Day
Which Week 11 games will have the greatest impact on the next College Football Playoff ranking?
The Michigan-Indiana, Alabama-LSU and Georgia-Ole Miss matchups could cause some movement in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Which teams with the best title odds at the beginning of the season have taken the largest tumble?
Reigning national champion Michigan (+750), USC (+1600) and Florida State (+2000) were among the eight teams with the shortest title odds. None are in the top 25 in the CFP rankings.
