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NCAAF Predictions: No. 23 Oregon State Beavers
Will Arrival of Clemson QB Provide Offensive Boost?
Oregon State won its last four games of the 2022 season to clinch the program’s first double-digit victory season since 2006. It could have been better with Oregon State losing to Southern California and Washington by three points each. The Beavers aren’t getting as much love as some Pac-12 teams but certainly garnered attention by covering against the NCAA football predictions in each of its last seven games.
One of the big questions is whether Ben Gulbranson can hold off high-profile transfer DJ Uiagalelei in the battle to be the starting quarterback. It is also worth wondering if Oregon State might open things up on offense after attempting the second-fewest passes in the Pac-10 a season ago.
The 6-foot-4, 245-pound Uiagalelei ran for 545 yards and seven touchdowns at Clemson despite barely playing in the ACC title game and on his way out of the program by the time the Tigers lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. The California native’s return to Pac-12 country made quite a bit of college football news. Gulbranson doesn’t offer the running ability that Uiagelelei does. He did have five scoring runs, however.
According to the college football picks, Oregon State (+15000) is tied for 23rd in the odds to win the national title. Oregon State finished fifth in the Pac-12 preseason poll.
Oregon State Beavers
- 2022 record: 10-3
- 2022 Pac-12 record: 6-3
- Head coach: Jonathan Smith
- Odds to win conference title: +10000
One has to wonder how the 2022 season would have been viewed if Oregon State had been able to seal the deal on the upset bids against USC or Washington.
The Beavers had the top-ranked rushing defense and also gave up the fewest yards per game of any Pac-12 team a season ago. The defense will need to replace some key players in the secondary with cornerbacks Alex Austin and Rezjohn Wright as well as safety Jaydon Grant embarking on professional careers and leading tackler Omar Speights now at LSU.
Those who bet online will take a wait-and-see approach at Oregon State’s revamped defense.
Oregon State added edge rusher Oluwaseyi Omotosho (6½ sacks, 10 quarterback hurries) from Wyoming as well as linebackers Calvin Hart and Mason Tufaga from Illinois and Utah.
Eight of the top 22 tackles a season ago were sophomores so much will be expected from that group.
The offense will once again be led by the running game with four starting offensive linemen back to open more holes for Damien Martinez after he had six straight 100-yard rushing games as a freshman.
Martinez was joined on the preseason All-Pac 12 first team by offensive linemen Joshua Gray and Taliee Fuaga with linebacker Jake Levengood earning second-team honors. Defensive back Kitan Oladapo was also a first-team selection.
Receivers Tre’Shaun Harrison and Tyjon Lindsey are gone, but big-play receiver Anthony Gould is back and former Cal tight end Jermaine Terry joins Nevada offensive tackle Grant Starck as other incoming transfers to keep an eye on.
Outlook
The job Smith has done at Oregon State is one of the best-kept secrets in college football. The Beavers were 5-31 in Pac-12 play from 2014-17. In the last two years, Oregon State went 11-7 in the Pac-12 with another strong season possible.
In his last four full seasons in Corvallis, Oregon State has gone from 2-10 to 5-7 to 7-6 and 10-3 with Smith at the helm
Uiagalelei was a highly-touted player coming out of high school who was 21-6 as a starter at Clemson so it will be worth watching to see the progression if he wins the starting quarterback job. He is currently listed by the college football picks at +9000 to win the Heisman Trophy.
Monday Motivation from 2022 Heisman Trophy Winner, USC’s @CALEBcsw: “Your journey will be your own. Just keep believing and keep pursuing your goals. If you’re willing to put in the work and surround yourself with positive people, you can achieve anything.” – Caleb Williams pic.twitter.com/c5NRgM2RH6
— The Heisman Trophy (@HeismanTrophy) July 24, 2023
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The defense was one of the best at preventing big plays a season ago. The Beavers held Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams to a season-low 180 passing yards in a 17-14 loss to Southern California in late September. With the departures, can the Beavers be that stingy again in 2023?
The non-conference schedule isn’t the toughest out there as the season opens with a road game against San Jose State with Oregon State listed by the sportsbook as a 17-point favorite. The home opener is on Sept. 9 against UC Davis before a more challenging matchup versus San Diego State a week later.
Conference play begins on the road against Washington State. The next two home games won’t be easy with Utah and UCLA coming to Corvallis. Utah was picked third and UCLA sixth in the Pac-12 preseason poll. The Beavers don’t face Pac-12 preseason favorite USC during the regular season. The regular season ends with a game at rival Oregon as the seniors have a chance to win three of the last four games against the Ducks and that hasn’t happened since the Beavers topped the Ducks in 2004, 2006, and 2007.
Oregon State was 10-0 when listed as the favorite and covered against the college football spreads in nine of those games during the 2022 season and those will be tough numbers to duplicate.
Oregon State comes in at even money to go over the expected total of eight regular season wins with -130 odds to finish under that total so there are those who aren’t expecting another 10-win season. Still, the Beavers are projected to post a third-straight winning season and that hasn’t happened in Corvallis since Mike Riley guided the Beavers to four consecutive winning campaigns from 2006-2009.
2023 Schedule
- Sept. 3 at San Jose State
- Sept. 9 vs UC Davis
- Sept. 16 vs San Diego State
- Sept. 23 at Washington State
- Sept. 29 vs Utah
- Oct. 7 at California
- Oct. 14 vs UCLA
- Oct. 28 at Arizona
- Nov. 4 at Colorado
- Nov. 11 vs Stanford
- Nov. 18 vs Washington
- Nov. 24 at Oregon
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