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NCAAF Predictions: No. 24 Arkansas Razorbacks
Will Star Power on Offense Be Enough for Razorbacks
It could be argued that Arkansas returns the best quarterback and running back in the SEC and that alone is enough for the Razorbacks to crack our Top 25 countdown at No. 24. Arkansas finished the 2022 season by covering against the NCAA football predictions in five of its last seven games.
K.J. Jefferson is back for his third season as the Arkansas starting quarterback and he can make plays with his arm and legs. Having top rusher Raheim Sanders back is a nice place to start. Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles left to join the TCU staff so the offensive play calling duties will be handled by Dan Enos.
Arkansas lost four games by three points or less so the 7-6 record was a little deceiving. The Razorbacks also lost both games that Jefferson missed.
According to the college football picks, Arkansas (+20000) is tied for 30th in the odds to win the national title. Arkansas finished fifth in the SEC West Division in the preseason poll and that is largely because of a porous defense.
Arkansas Razorbacks
- 2022 record: 7-6
- 2022 SEC record: 3-5
- Head coach: Sam Pittman
- Odds to win conference title: +8000
Other than back-to-back losses to Alabama and Mississippi State, Arkansas was in every game last year. Jefferson, who completed 68% of his passes for 2,648 yards to go with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions, is back to lead the offense. Sanders, Jefferson, and AJ Green all return after combining for 2,495 rushing yards.
When looking at the college football lines, Jefferson is priced at +7000 and Sanders comes in at +10000 in the odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
Matt Landers and Jadon Haselwood, the top two receivers, headed off to the NFL, and tight end Trey Knox transferred to South Carolina so a new set of pass catchers will need to emerge for Jefferson.
Tyrone Broden and Andrew Armstrong transferred in from Bowling Green and Texas A&M Commerce, tight end Var’Keyes Gumms comes in from North Texas, and receiver Isaac TeSlaa is another transfer to keep an eye on.
There is some work to do on the offensive line.
The biggest questions come on the other side of the ball
Not only did the top two tacklers (Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool) head off to the NFL, but No. 3 tackler Simeon Blair transferred to Memphis.
Defensive backs Hudson Clark and Dwight McGlothern, linebacker Chris Paul and defensive tackle Tauren Carter are the top returnees on defense with Carter back after missing the 2022 season due to injury.
With Arkansas finishing last in the SEC in total defense and passing defense so having some newcomers joining the Razorbacks might not be the worst thing.
Three of the top four rated incoming transfers are on defense with Georgia defensive back Jaheim Singletary, Maryland defensive tackle Anthony Booker, and Baylor safety Alfahiym Walcott looking to add some punch to the defense. Baylor cornerback Lorando Johnson, Cincinnati linebacker Jaheim Thomas and South Florida linebacker Antonio Grier are joined by edge rushers Trajan Jeffcoat from Missouri and John Morgan from Pittsburgh.
Arkansas did lead the SEC in sacks a season ago. However, the 90 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards allowed are the most among all FBS programs so there will be a need to tighten things up. Only five teams from the Power-5 conference have worse opposing passing ratings than the Razorbacks.
Sanders was a first-team preseason All-SEC pick with Jefferson and offensive lineman Brady Latham making it onto the second team along with defensive back Dwight McGlothern.
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Outlook
Arkansas had issues closing out games a season ago and that short-circuited what could have been an impressive season.
Two-point losses to Liberty and Missouri and a near upset of nationally ranked LSU in the second half of the season led to a disappointing finish to the season.
A 55-53 bowl win over Kansas was exciting, but that type of game won’t work in the SEC so Arkansas will need to prove that it has more than just some talented skill players on offense.
Arkansas saw its recruiting classes ranked ninth and 13th among SEC teams in the last two seasons and that makes it hard to compete with the star-studded recruiting classes put together by Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M.
Seven of the last nine games played by Arkansas finished over the total and there could be more of the same coming in 2023.
Arkansas doesn’t have to leave the state of Arkansas until a huge game in Week 4 against national title contender Louisiana State.
It remains to be seen if the non-conference games against Western Carolina, Kent State, and Brigham Young will prepare the Razorbacks for the challenges of playing in the SEC.
The first four conference games come against LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Three of those are on the road so it shouldn’t take long to find out if Arkansas is a contender or a pretender.
The regular season ends with home games against Auburn, FIU, and Missouri and all three of those are winnable games.
Opening the season against a Football Championship Subdivision program has resulted in no line being released yet by the college football spreads.
Expectations are somewhat low with a price of +110, according to the college football odds, for Arkansas to go over seven wins and -140 to finish under that total.
2023 Schedule
- Sept. 2 vs Western Carolina (at Little Rock)
- Sept. 9 vs Kent State
- Sept. 16 vs Brigham Young
- Sept. 23 at Louisiana State
- Sept. 30 vs Texas A&M (at Arlington, TX)
- Oct. 7 at Ole Miss
- Oct. 14 at Alabama
- Oct. 21 vs Mississippi State
- Nov. 4 at Florida
- Nov. 11 vs Auburn
- Nov. 18 vs Florida International
- Nov. 24 vs Missouri
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