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NCAAF Predictions: No. 25 Oklahoma Sooners
Perennial Big 12 Power Kicks Off Top 25 Countdown
Brent Venables’ debut season at Oklahoma was not a fun one. Things hit rock bottom pretty quickly with Oklahoma losing its first three Big 12 games by a combined total of 58 points against Kansas State, Texas Christian and Texas. The 49-0 loss to Texas was one of eight games when Oklahoma failed to cover against the NCAA football predictions.
Expect a turnaround in Venables’ second year with the Sooners, who kick off our Top 25 Countdown for the 2023 season.
Oklahoma was one of five teams listed by the 247sports.com site as ranking in the top 10 in both incoming freshmen and incoming transfer classes so that could bode well as Venables looks to rebound from last year’s disappointing showing.
Oklahoma began last season in the top 10 in both national polls and that doesn’t figure to be the case in 2023. Oklahoma was eighth in our breakdown of the top teams in the nation heading into the 2022 season and the Sooners barely snuck into the top 25 this time.
According to the college football picks, Oklahoma (+6000) is tied for 17th in the odds to win the national title. Among Big 12 teams, only Texas has better championship odds than the Sooners. The Longhorns are also the only other Big 12 team ahead of Oklahoma in the conference odds. Oklahoma was picked to finish third behind Texas and Kansas State in the Big 12 preseason poll. The Sooners picked up four first-place votes.
The return of the 𝑹𝒆𝒅 𝑹𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝑹𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒓𝒚
OU vs. Texas ➡️ Oct. 7 #OUDNA pic.twitter.com/4ORAhVzolw
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) July 17, 2023
Oklahoma Sooners
- 2022 record: 6-7
- 2022 Big 12 record: 3-6
- Head coach: Brent Venables
- Odds to win conference title: +350
Only the presence of an Iowa State team that lost its top passer, rusher and pass catcher to the NFL kept Oklahoma out of last place in the Big 12 standings in Brent Venables’ first season as the Sooners’ head coach.
Expectations are much lower in Venables’ second season after Oklahoma ranked last in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed per game and ended up ninth out of 10 teams in rushing defense.
Oklahoma was hit hard by outgoing transfers a season ago, with no loss any bigger than eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams following head coach Lincoln Riley to Southern California.
Oklahoma has a top-10 rated class of incoming transfers, according to the 247sports.com database.
Indiana linebacker Dasan McCullough, Stanford offensive lineman Walter Rouse, Texas wide receiver Brenen Thompson, Oklahoma State defensive lineman Trace Ford, Texas State defensive lineman Davon Sears and Wake Forest defensive lineman Rondell Bothroyd are among the top incoming transfers. They are joined by Michigan receiver Andrel Anthony, Tennessee defensive lineman Da’Jon Terry, Texas Tech safety Reggie Pearson, Miami (Ohio) offensive lineman Caleb Shaffer and South Carolina tight end Austin Stogner.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back after throwing for more than 3,000 yards to go with 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his first season with the Sooners. Gabriel also ran for six touchdowns.
Gabriel will miss leading receiver Marvin Mims, who is off to the NFL. However, Oklahoma will have plenty of options in the passing game for Gabriel to connect with.
With the No. 63 overall pick in the 2023 @NFLDraft, the @Broncos select Marvin Mims!
📺: 2023 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/D3EqkrKdIw pic.twitter.com/7pMO5eSYQa— NFL (@NFL) April 29, 2023
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Leading rusher Eric Gray is now with the NFL’s New York Giants and he leaves big shoes to fill. Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk both return. Sawchuk was limited to two games as a freshman. He returned to run for 100 yards in a loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl.
Mims saw a major jump in production from 2021 to 2022. Will it be a similar story for Jalil Farooq or will one of the transfers emerge as the go-to pass catcher?
Danny Stutsman, who had 125 tackles a season ago, is back to lead the defense. David Ugwouegbu, who also topped 100 tackles, transferred to Houston.
No Oklahoma player had more than 4½ sacks a season ago and that will have to change.
Transfers could be plugged in at all three levels of the defense after the Sooners led the Big 12 with 225 plays from scrimmage of at least 10 yards a season ago. Venables made his reputation as a defensive coordinator on some dominant defenses at Clemson and will look for more of the same at Oklahoma.
Defensive lineman Ethan Downs was the only Oklahoma player named to the first team in the preseason All-Big 12 team. Downs had 13½ tackles for loss and 4½ sacks a season ago.
Outlook
Oklahoma went 0-5 in one-score games a season ago and that had a lot to do with a leaky defense as the Sooners gave up an average of 41.7 points in the seven losses. If that happens again, the seat will be getting pretty warm for Venables.
Oklahoma had the No. 2-rated recruiting class in the Big 12 so Venables isn’t limiting himself to working the transfer portal. Venables wasn’t shy about plugging true freshmen into the defense when he was at Clemson and that could happen as well for Oklahoma in 2023.
There should be a chance to build some confidence with home games against a three-win Arkansas State team followed by a matchup with Southern Methodist.
Big 12 play begins against 2022 cellar-dwelling Iowa State before the degree of difficulty ramps up with games against Texas and UCF.
Oklahoma is favored by 32½ points, according to the college football spreads, in the season opener against Arkansas State on Sept. 2 as the Sooners get ready for their final season in the Big 12 before jumping to the SEC.
The expected regular-season win total of 9½ according to the college football odds features -110 odds for Oklahoma to go over that total and -120 to finish under.
2023 Schedule
- Sept. 2 vs Arkansas State
- Sept. 9 vs Southern Methodist
- Sept. 16 at Tulsa
- Sept. 23 at Cincinnati
- Sept. 30 vs Iowa State
- Oct. 7 vs Texas (at Dallas)
- Oct. 21 vs UCF
- Oct. 28 at Kansas
- Nov. 4 at Oklahoma State
- Nov. 11 vs West Virginia
- Nov. 18 at Brigham Young
- Nov. 24 vs Texas Christian
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